5 ms·

> Crime in a lot of places in the United States is so bad right now Categorically false. https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/property-crime-stats/ https://www.rubyho

by pc86 3y ago

> Crime in a lot of places in the United States is so bad right now Categorically false. https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/property-crime-stats/ https://www.rubyhome.com/blog/property-crime-stats/ "Official" FBI stats only go through 2019 but the rates match so I have no reason to believe that the graph showing a marked and steady decline in property crime rates decreasing is incorrect. Property crime rates have decreased every single year for two decades and look to be approximately half what they were 20 years ago. Every single year people regurgitate this "crime is so bad right now!!1" meme that never seems to die and is always wrong. Crime is decreasing, it has been decreasing in almost every geographic area in almost every category. If you're younger than Gen X this has been happening for most of your entire life. We live in one of the safest times in human history, most of us reading this live in one of the safest countries in the world, and Kias being easy to steal or some idiotic DAs refusing to prosecute petty thefts out of some misplaced sense of social justice does not change reality.

kyledrake 3y ago
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/20/car-thefts-2023-kia-hyundai-crime-data https://www.axios.com/2023/07/20/car-thefts-2023-kia-hyundai...
- rileymat2 3y ago
  At 86 per 100k per year, if we assume the average loss is about 50k (which might be high) we are talking like a $43 insurance premium per year? If I understand that correctly it is not a huge problem to focus on? But we should keep an eye on the trend continuing. I wonder what the ROI on additional criminal justice costs or additional antitheft costs is? They would have to be pretty cheap to make it worth it.
  - anonym29 3y ago
    You think Kia and Hyundai are bad? Focus one or two more layer in, at specific models ans trims, instead of whole makes. Check out the theft rates on Dodge Chargers and Dodge Challengers in the Hellcat trim level.
    - rileymat2 3y ago
      So, If I don’t have those cars it is less of a concern?
      - pc86 3y ago
        Yes/of course?
anonym29 3y ago
>most of us reading this live in one of the safest countries in the world with many of that group living in some of the most high crime cities in the country - SF, Seattle, Portland, Austin, Denver, NYC, Chicago, Boston, LA, etc.
- woodruffw 3y ago
  NYC is at or near the bottom of most crime statistics. This talking point is significantly out of date; you should consider revising it.
- dmoy 3y ago
  I mean, those aren't even the highest crime places in the US (Chicago notwithstanding) If you want to list actual high crime places in the US, it's: Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, and Cleveland. Besides Chicago, none of the others you listed are even top 20.
  - dmoy 3y ago
    I guess unless by safe we mean burglary, not violent crime. In which case, yea, I think Seattle is worst, like 50% worse than the second worst.
  - anonym29 3y ago
    I wonder what Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, and Cleveland (and maybe Chicago?) have in common that SF, Seattle, Portland, Austin, Denver, NYC, Boston, and LA don't. There has to be some hidden third variable besides a weak correlation between crime levels and how far west a city is within the US, no? Looking at the states, MD, MO, LA, MI, OH v.s. CA, WA, OR, TX, CO, NY, MA I was thinking maybe guns but then why would TX and CO (relatively relaxed on guns) be in the lower category? Then I wondered if maybe it's relating to the housing-challenged (more property crime maybe?), but I can't imagine that climates like those of Detroit and Chicago, with subzero temps and tons of snow in the winter, are very unhospitable to the unsheltered, probably even fatal to those who can't access shelter. Anyone else have any ideas? I'm stumped here. I know crime is a complex social issue but it seems like there's some weird variable I must be missing.
rufus_foreman 3y ago
We don't have statistics on the number of crimes committed. We have FBI statistics which are statistics on the number of crimes that local law enforcement agencies reported to the FBI. Not all crimes are reported to law enforcement, not all law enforcement agencies report to the FBI, and not all crimes reported to law enforcement agencies that do report to the FBI are included in their reports. We also have surveys of the public asking if they have been a victim of crime, for example the National Crime Victimization Survey. According to the FBI statistics, crime is down recently, according to the victimization survey, crime is up recently (both say that crime is down since the 1990's). According to the victimization survey, the majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. From the 2022 victimization survey summary, https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimization-2022 https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimizat...: "The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022. From 1993 to 2022, the overall rate of violent victimization declined from 79.8 to 23.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. In 2022, about 2 in 5 (42%) violent victimizations were reported to police. Motor vehicle theft victimization increased from a rate of 4.3 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2021 to 5.5 per 1,000 in 2022." So whether you believe crime is up or down is going to depend on what data you choose to believe. In the victimization survey data, crime is slightly down recently in rural areas, about the same in suburban areas, and up by a large amount in urban areas. According to my security cameras, crime in my neighborhood is down this year, but still at a much higher level than 2019.
- oooyay 3y ago
  Thanks for this detailed breakdown. I didn't know they published a victimization survey.
- pc86 3y ago
  This is about property crime, not violent crime, so conflating the two is probably not particularly useful, but I can see why you chose that as it shows your point a little easier. But let's look at property crime at https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics#quickgraphicstop https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics#quickgraphicstop: Down almost every year, and with the exception of 2010-2012 every year it increased it decreased the following year. The trend is clearly down every year with the occasional increase for one year.
darksaints 3y ago
I don’t know about anywhere else, but in 2020 the Seattle PD just flat out stopped doing their jobs. They had been dragging their feet for years but now they literally won’t do anything. I’ve called the cops for a violent crime in progress, requested that they contact me, and then find out later that the cop assigned had closed my report and had already contacted me and I said everything was fine now. lol. The effective result of that is skyrocketing crime without skyrocketing crime reports. What use is a crime report if the police won’t do anything about it?
- genewitch 3y ago
  if you want to be a PITA, FOIA request the information related to the report, where they said they contacted you, which should have times/dates/etc and you ought be able to easily prove there was no contact. I'm not sure right now what you can do with that information, but perhaps the Washington State Police might care? It's against the law to put false information on a police report. At least if you're just a scrunchie citizen.

by pc86 3y ago

kyledrake 3y ago

https://www.axios.com/2023/07/20/car-thefts-2023-kia-hyundai-crime-data https://www.axios.com/2023/07/20/car-thefts-2023-kia-hyundai...

rileymat2 3y ago
At 86 per 100k per year, if we assume the average loss is about 50k (which might be high) we are talking like a $43 insurance premium per year? If I understand that correctly it is not a huge problem to focus on? But we should keep an eye on the trend continuing. I wonder what the ROI on additional criminal justice costs or additional antitheft costs is? They would have to be pretty cheap to make it worth it.
- anonym29 3y ago
  You think Kia and Hyundai are bad? Focus one or two more layer in, at specific models ans trims, instead of whole makes. Check out the theft rates on Dodge Chargers and Dodge Challengers in the Hellcat trim level.
  - rileymat2 3y ago
    So, If I don’t have those cars it is less of a concern?
    - pc86 3y ago
      Yes/of course?

anonym29 3y ago

>most of us reading this live in one of the safest countries in the world with many of that group living in some of the most high crime cities in the country - SF, Seattle, Portland, Austin, Denver, NYC, Chicago, Boston, LA, etc.

woodruffw 3y ago
NYC is at or near the bottom of most crime statistics. This talking point is significantly out of date; you should consider revising it.
dmoy 3y ago
I mean, those aren't even the highest crime places in the US (Chicago notwithstanding) If you want to list actual high crime places in the US, it's: Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, and Cleveland. Besides Chicago, none of the others you listed are even top 20.
- dmoy 3y ago
  I guess unless by safe we mean burglary, not violent crime. In which case, yea, I think Seattle is worst, like 50% worse than the second worst.
- anonym29 3y ago
  I wonder what Baltimore, St Louis, New Orleans, Detroit, and Cleveland (and maybe Chicago?) have in common that SF, Seattle, Portland, Austin, Denver, NYC, Boston, and LA don't. There has to be some hidden third variable besides a weak correlation between crime levels and how far west a city is within the US, no? Looking at the states, MD, MO, LA, MI, OH v.s. CA, WA, OR, TX, CO, NY, MA I was thinking maybe guns but then why would TX and CO (relatively relaxed on guns) be in the lower category? Then I wondered if maybe it's relating to the housing-challenged (more property crime maybe?), but I can't imagine that climates like those of Detroit and Chicago, with subzero temps and tons of snow in the winter, are very unhospitable to the unsheltered, probably even fatal to those who can't access shelter. Anyone else have any ideas? I'm stumped here. I know crime is a complex social issue but it seems like there's some weird variable I must be missing.

rufus_foreman 3y ago

We don't have statistics on the number of crimes committed. We have FBI statistics which are statistics on the number of crimes that local law enforcement agencies reported to the FBI. Not all crimes are reported to law enforcement, not all law enforcement agencies report to the FBI, and not all crimes reported to law enforcement agencies that do report to the FBI are included in their reports. We also have surveys of the public asking if they have been a victim of crime, for example the National Crime Victimization Survey. According to the FBI statistics, crime is down recently, according to the victimization survey, crime is up recently (both say that crime is down since the 1990's). According to the victimization survey, the majority of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. From the 2022 victimization survey summary, https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimization-2022 https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/criminal-victimizat...: "The violent victimization rate increased from 16.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 in 2022. From 1993 to 2022, the overall rate of violent victimization declined from 79.8 to 23.5 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. In 2022, about 2 in 5 (42%) violent victimizations were reported to police. Motor vehicle theft victimization increased from a rate of 4.3 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2021 to 5.5 per 1,000 in 2022." So whether you believe crime is up or down is going to depend on what data you choose to believe. In the victimization survey data, crime is slightly down recently in rural areas, about the same in suburban areas, and up by a large amount in urban areas. According to my security cameras, crime in my neighborhood is down this year, but still at a much higher level than 2019.

oooyay 3y ago
Thanks for this detailed breakdown. I didn't know they published a victimization survey.
pc86 3y ago
This is about property crime, not violent crime, so conflating the two is probably not particularly useful, but I can see why you chose that as it shows your point a little easier. But let's look at property crime at https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics#quickgraphicstop https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics#quickgraphicstop: Down almost every year, and with the exception of 2010-2012 every year it increased it decreased the following year. The trend is clearly down every year with the occasional increase for one year.

darksaints 3y ago

I don’t know about anywhere else, but in 2020 the Seattle PD just flat out stopped doing their jobs. They had been dragging their feet for years but now they literally won’t do anything. I’ve called the cops for a violent crime in progress, requested that they contact me, and then find out later that the cop assigned had closed my report and had already contacted me and I said everything was fine now. lol. The effective result of that is skyrocketing crime without skyrocketing crime reports. What use is a crime report if the police won’t do anything about it?

genewitch 3y ago
if you want to be a PITA, FOIA request the information related to the report, where they said they contacted you, which should have times/dates/etc and you ought be able to easily prove there was no contact. I'm not sure right now what you can do with that information, but perhaps the Washington State Police might care? It's against the law to put false information on a police report. At least if you're just a scrunchie citizen.