3 ms·
Isn't inability to accurately predict some economic metrics consequence of efficient market hypothesis? All available and some unavailable information is alrea
by hamilyon2 3y ago
Isn't inability to accurately predict some economic metrics consequence of efficient market hypothesis?
All available and some unavailable information is already reflected in market. So, sum of reasonable guesses of next year GDP more or less is today's market index. Anything over that is some baseless speculation with no skin in the game.
- nimbius 3y agocorrect me if im wrong but the approximate cycle of boom/bust each decade or so for capitalism is a well documented feature? that it sort of has to "reinvent" itself each time in order for continued existence? couldnt one plan around this in broader strokes that dont involve the sorts of precision quantitative analysis that wallstreet seems so fond of?
- bee_rider 3y agoWe need a market uncertainty principle or something, haha.
- adrianN 3y agoAfaik the efficient market hypothesis says nothing about how long the market takes to optimize after new information is available (and I believe the market needs to solve an np-hard optimization problem). So in principle you could beat the market, by using a better algorithm or more compute.