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Western media, representing an ebullient american establishment, which was replete with articles like this around the beginning of may 2023: https://news.yahoo

by pydry 3y ago

Western media, representing an ebullient american establishment, which was replete with articles like this around the beginning of may 2023: https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-counteroffensive-begun-expect-breakthroughs-145500950.html https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-counteroffensive-begun-expe... If you can find an article from may 2023 that accurately predicts that ukraine could end the offensive with less land than it started off with Id like to see it. There's more doom and gloom now of course. The failure is hard to ignore.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> an article from may 2023 that accurately predicts that ukraine could end the offensive with less land than it started off with Everyone I read made predictions conditional on aid, specifically, long-range strike capability and air defence. Here is Phillips O’Brien on 28 May: “Ukraine has had to fight this war under a series of great handicaps. Its aid has been often technologically limited and always politically limited by NATO countries, primarily the US, with the goal of preventing Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil. By compelling Ukraine to fight almost exclusively on its own soil, Russia has been handled a major asymetric advantage…Ukraine has has to fight this war with one hand tied behind its back while Russia has been given a major advantage in not having to use many resources to defend its own border with Ukraine.” Which makes sense. That is the operating variable. We didn’t provide that aid in time. So Ukraine mostly held ground. (Breaching the Dnipr and pushing Russia so far back from Sevastopol that its blockade enforcement is now poorer than the Houthis’ should not be understated.) If you’re seriously following this issue, stay clear of Yahoo! News and ad-funded sources. They’re mostly mouthpieces for influencing domestic aid deliberations. At any given time, you can find sources confidently predicting imminent success and imminent defeat.
- pydry 3y ago
  >Everyone I read made predictions conditional on aid Ok and once the aid numbers were published how many of them predicted that Ukraine would end the offensive with less land than it started? >If you’re seriously following this issue, stay clear of Yahoo! News and ad-funded sources. They’re mostly mouthpieces Im obviously talking about what the mouthpieces said - what the average person on hacker news will have read and believed. My sources nailed it. They made fairly specific predictions, most of which came true with a smallish margin of error. They've been predicting a Ukrainian collapse some time between mid 2024 - beginning of 2025 for the last several months.

by pydry 3y ago

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> an article from may 2023 that accurately predicts that ukraine could end the offensive with less land than it started off with Everyone I read made predictions conditional on aid, specifically, long-range strike capability and air defence. Here is Phillips O’Brien on 28 May: “Ukraine has had to fight this war under a series of great handicaps. Its aid has been often technologically limited and always politically limited by NATO countries, primarily the US, with the goal of preventing Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil. By compelling Ukraine to fight almost exclusively on its own soil, Russia has been handled a major asymetric advantage…Ukraine has has to fight this war with one hand tied behind its back while Russia has been given a major advantage in not having to use many resources to defend its own border with Ukraine.” Which makes sense. That is the operating variable. We didn’t provide that aid in time. So Ukraine mostly held ground. (Breaching the Dnipr and pushing Russia so far back from Sevastopol that its blockade enforcement is now poorer than the Houthis’ should not be understated.) If you’re seriously following this issue, stay clear of Yahoo! News and ad-funded sources. They’re mostly mouthpieces for influencing domestic aid deliberations. At any given time, you can find sources confidently predicting imminent success and imminent defeat.

pydry 3y ago
>Everyone I read made predictions conditional on aid Ok and once the aid numbers were published how many of them predicted that Ukraine would end the offensive with less land than it started? >If you’re seriously following this issue, stay clear of Yahoo! News and ad-funded sources. They’re mostly mouthpieces Im obviously talking about what the mouthpieces said - what the average person on hacker news will have read and believed. My sources nailed it. They made fairly specific predictions, most of which came true with a smallish margin of error. They've been predicting a Ukrainian collapse some time between mid 2024 - beginning of 2025 for the last several months.