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I agree. The article succumbs to a False Binary Fallacy, where forecasts are either correct or wrong. The real question about forecasts is how certain they are.
by qznc 3y ago
I agree. The article succumbs to a False Binary Fallacy, where forecasts are either correct or wrong. The real question about forecasts is how certain they are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
- hef19898 3y agoFirst rule of forecasts in supply chain management: the forecast is always wrong. And still people ignore that cardinal, and a lotnof smaller, rules all the time.
- kqr 3y agoRight or wrong is not the measure by which to evaluate forecasts, just as it's not the appropriate yardstick for models.