4 ms·
Any forecasts that don't involve probabilities or confidence intervals are useless. Also, if any forecasters were really serious, they would register their past
by sega_sai 3y ago
Any forecasts that don't involve probabilities or confidence intervals are useless. Also, if any forecasters were really serious, they would register their past forecasts and show how good they have been in the past. But I think most of forecasters are probably afraid of showing their true track record.
- qznc 3y agoI agree. The article succumbs to a False Binary Fallacy, where forecasts are either correct or wrong. The real question about forecasts is how certain they are. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
- hef19898 3y agoFirst rule of forecasts in supply chain management: the forecast is always wrong. And still people ignore that cardinal, and a lotnof smaller, rules all the time.
- kqr 3y agoRight or wrong is not the measure by which to evaluate forecasts, just as it's not the appropriate yardstick for models.