4 ms·

Quantum computers, fusion reactors, economically viable maglev trains. They've been around the corner for the last fifty years.

by cvalka 3y ago

Koshkin 3y ago
As have EVs and AI…
happytiger 3y ago
Fusion is now a reality. Commercializing it is the next challenge, but we have working fusion: https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-makes-history-achieving-fusion-ignition https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-make... You can buy a quantum computer today. They are reality: https://quantumzeitgeist.com/how-to-buy-a-quantum-computer/ https://quantumzeitgeist.com/how-to-buy-a-quantum-computer/ They will likely only get better from here. Too early to take that promise to the bank, but human progress isn’t generally made by pessimists. To what level, we’ll see. They don’t call it the frontiers of innovation because of the security of outcome involved. Public transportation is a public good and doesn’t need to be profitable. If it needed to be profitable we have a word for that: private transportation. Maglev trains are obscenely expensive to build and may never be profitable. Brightline is showing that profitable high speed rail may be a commercial reality worth pursuing however. People bag on them, but they have already launched their first line and are working on their second. Tons of people betting against them and my goodness were there so many naysayers from day one, yet they are getting it done. Also: AI is a reality. That was science fiction. Wearable computers are a reality. Dick Tracy stuff. Also science fiction. Virtual reality is a reality. Also science fiction. Electric cars were a fantasty that had so many headwinds and scaling problems they were called impractical, but now in just a decade or so they are commonplace. Fully automated electronic pilots for both fixed wing and helicopters was science fiction just a few decades ago. Not autopilots but pilot replacements. Today: commercial reality. Just in time factories with robots running the lines were science fiction until just a few decades ago. Now people use old ones for making art and many factories are deeply automated headed towards even greater automation. Drones were also science fiction (the first cameras were on kites). Now they are so common we have to ban them from places. Everyone dogs on the progress these days, especially big projects, but we keep making progress in big ways and the negativity is just unjustified. It’s just that the progress is adsorbed into society in such a way that people don’t realize how remarkable their every day things are.
- cvalka 3y ago
  I am not sure what your diatribe is supposed to mean. I am very pro innovation, science and technology. Those three technologies are dead ends, I am no longer willing to allocate any more resources towards them. There's a thing called opportunity cost. The opportunity cost is f.e hovertrains, new safer and more efficient nuclear fission reactors, FHE, etc.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  Not sure I'd call that working fusion as net energy production is negative (the numbers in there are only what the laser delivered, not the take-in to generate the laser pulse which is orders magnitude larger).
- chasil 3y ago
  We have actually had working fusion since the 1960s, it just doesn't reach break-even. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor
  - cvalka 3y ago
    Try explaining it to the commenter above...

Quantum computers, fusion reactors, economically viable maglev trains. They've been around the corner for the last fifty years.

by cvalka 3y ago

Quantum computers, fusion reactors, economically viable maglev trains. They've been around the corner for the last fifty years.

Koshkin 3y ago

As have EVs and AI…

happytiger 3y ago

Fusion is now a reality. Commercializing it is the next challenge, but we have working fusion: https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-makes-history-achieving-fusion-ignition https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-make... You can buy a quantum computer today. They are reality: https://quantumzeitgeist.com/how-to-buy-a-quantum-computer/ https://quantumzeitgeist.com/how-to-buy-a-quantum-computer/ They will likely only get better from here. Too early to take that promise to the bank, but human progress isn’t generally made by pessimists. To what level, we’ll see. They don’t call it the frontiers of innovation because of the security of outcome involved. Public transportation is a public good and doesn’t need to be profitable. If it needed to be profitable we have a word for that: private transportation. Maglev trains are obscenely expensive to build and may never be profitable. Brightline is showing that profitable high speed rail may be a commercial reality worth pursuing however. People bag on them, but they have already launched their first line and are working on their second. Tons of people betting against them and my goodness were there so many naysayers from day one, yet they are getting it done. Also: AI is a reality. That was science fiction. Wearable computers are a reality. Dick Tracy stuff. Also science fiction. Virtual reality is a reality. Also science fiction. Electric cars were a fantasty that had so many headwinds and scaling problems they were called impractical, but now in just a decade or so they are commonplace. Fully automated electronic pilots for both fixed wing and helicopters was science fiction just a few decades ago. Not autopilots but pilot replacements. Today: commercial reality. Just in time factories with robots running the lines were science fiction until just a few decades ago. Now people use old ones for making art and many factories are deeply automated headed towards even greater automation. Drones were also science fiction (the first cameras were on kites). Now they are so common we have to ban them from places. Everyone dogs on the progress these days, especially big projects, but we keep making progress in big ways and the negativity is just unjustified. It’s just that the progress is adsorbed into society in such a way that people don’t realize how remarkable their every day things are.

cvalka 3y ago
I am not sure what your diatribe is supposed to mean. I am very pro innovation, science and technology. Those three technologies are dead ends, I am no longer willing to allocate any more resources towards them. There's a thing called opportunity cost. The opportunity cost is f.e hovertrains, new safer and more efficient nuclear fission reactors, FHE, etc.
RandomLensman 3y ago
Not sure I'd call that working fusion as net energy production is negative (the numbers in there are only what the laser delivered, not the take-in to generate the laser pulse which is orders magnitude larger).
chasil 3y ago
We have actually had working fusion since the 1960s, it just doesn't reach break-even. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusor
- cvalka 3y ago
  Try explaining it to the commenter above...