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Well, it goes to show that if you're a neighbor of Russia you have to be either a member of NATO, or have nuclear deterrence - it looks like that's the only thi

Well, it goes to show that if you're a neighbor of Russia you have to be either a member of NATO, or have nuclear deterrence - it looks like that's the only thing that keeps Russians in their borders. Putin decided to go to the Nazi Germany playbook and turn the Russian language into a casus beli to invade countries, as he could claim Russian speakers are in danger and he would proceed to annex land (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine).

dividedbyzero 3y ago
For now. A NATO left behind by a hypothetical second Trump administration might be a much less effective deterrent. With two nuclear powers on the continent and one latent nuclear power (Germany) and none in the east save Russia, things might get very interesting for a while if that came to pass.
- malcolmgreaves 3y ago
  Good thing congress slipped in a provision in the latest defense spending bill to prevent the president from withdrawing from NATO unilaterally: https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/ https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-...
  - baybal2 3y ago
    [dead]
  - dividedbyzero 3y ago
    That's signaling intention to uphold NATO by that particular congress, not something that would prevent a US government from bringing it down. If a US president were only to make it known that he or she would actively resist giving the required orders to fulfill NATO commitments in a crisis, I think the alliance in its current form would be walking dead from that point forward. There is considerable public doubt already as to whether the US would honor their commitment to wage a nuclear war over NATO matters and that's the keystone of the whole alliance. If Russia were to attack a NATO member and win the gamble, I'd expect a massive shift of power on the continent and a great loss of US soft power in Europe (at the least).
  - honzabe 3y ago
    I have read an argument that this does not solve much, because "as commander-in-chief, Trump could (and likely would) simply refuse to order the military to come to the aid of NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack." [1] https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-where-the-war-in https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-where-the-war... BTW, the linked article by Noah Smith is pretty interesting, IMHO.
- libertine 3y ago
  Well if Trump chooses to give the lead to China, that's certainly an option - the US can't be the leader of the free world, get all the perks, and then choose just the nice parts of it. I mean, he can try, but I don't think it would work well.
ajsnigrutin 3y ago
Yep, russia wants war, look at how close they put their country to NATO... oh wait. Ukraine is for russia the same as what cuba was for US... but back then, people did diplomacy and war was avoided... here they tried in instanbul, johnson and the rest told zelensky not to sign, and here we are
- pydry 3y ago
  Except NATO and its primary members have a history of extreme military aggression (Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan) while Cuba just wanted to host nukes to prevent another bay of pigs type invasion.
  - libertine 3y ago
    Russia has a history of extreme military aggression, and using Genocide is a way to control territory.
    - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
      So... are we going to count the wars russia started vs the wars US&allies started? Genocide is a strong word... how many dead people count as a genocide? Because if russia applies the same rules as US, 500k dead children are worth it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM0uvgHKZe8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM0uvgHKZe8 ... in a war half a planet away from USA.
      - libertine 3y ago
        > So... are we going to count the wars russia started vs the wars US&allies started? Oh men, Russia used genocide even without war. Holodomor for example, as a way to kill millions of ethnic groups, or just the simple destruction of cultural landmarks like in Finland where they even razed cemeteries. > Genocide is a strong word... how many dead people count as a genocide? You need to educate yourself about genocide[0], it's not about number of people, or killing, it's about the actions with the intent to bring suffering to a group a people in an attempt to make them disappear. Putin is wanted by the ICC for kidnapping and filtering Ukrainian children, one of the most disgusting crimes against humanity and constitutes one of the crimes genocide. Despite the fact that the US has been involved in wars, none of them had the sickening intent of making a group of people disappear just because they exist, and erase their culture. If you want to look at that intent you need to observe Nazi Germany, Holodomor, Chechen war, that's what genocide looks like. [0]https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml

dividedbyzero 3y ago

For now. A NATO left behind by a hypothetical second Trump administration might be a much less effective deterrent. With two nuclear powers on the continent and one latent nuclear power (Germany) and none in the east save Russia, things might get very interesting for a while if that came to pass.

malcolmgreaves 3y ago
Good thing congress slipped in a provision in the latest defense spending bill to prevent the president from withdrawing from NATO unilaterally: https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/ https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-...
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- dividedbyzero 3y ago
  That's signaling intention to uphold NATO by that particular congress, not something that would prevent a US government from bringing it down. If a US president were only to make it known that he or she would actively resist giving the required orders to fulfill NATO commitments in a crisis, I think the alliance in its current form would be walking dead from that point forward. There is considerable public doubt already as to whether the US would honor their commitment to wage a nuclear war over NATO matters and that's the keystone of the whole alliance. If Russia were to attack a NATO member and win the gamble, I'd expect a massive shift of power on the continent and a great loss of US soft power in Europe (at the least).
- honzabe 3y ago
  I have read an argument that this does not solve much, because "as commander-in-chief, Trump could (and likely would) simply refuse to order the military to come to the aid of NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack." [1] https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-where-the-war-in https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-where-the-war... BTW, the linked article by Noah Smith is pretty interesting, IMHO.
libertine 3y ago
Well if Trump chooses to give the lead to China, that's certainly an option - the US can't be the leader of the free world, get all the perks, and then choose just the nice parts of it. I mean, he can try, but I don't think it would work well.

ajsnigrutin 3y ago

Yep, russia wants war, look at how close they put their country to NATO... oh wait. Ukraine is for russia the same as what cuba was for US... but back then, people did diplomacy and war was avoided... here they tried in instanbul, johnson and the rest told zelensky not to sign, and here we are

pydry 3y ago
Except NATO and its primary members have a history of extreme military aggression (Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan) while Cuba just wanted to host nukes to prevent another bay of pigs type invasion.
- libertine 3y ago
  Russia has a history of extreme military aggression, and using Genocide is a way to control territory.
  - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
    So... are we going to count the wars russia started vs the wars US&allies started? Genocide is a strong word... how many dead people count as a genocide? Because if russia applies the same rules as US, 500k dead children are worth it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM0uvgHKZe8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RM0uvgHKZe8 ... in a war half a planet away from USA.
    - libertine 3y ago
      > So... are we going to count the wars russia started vs the wars US&allies started? Oh men, Russia used genocide even without war. Holodomor for example, as a way to kill millions of ethnic groups, or just the simple destruction of cultural landmarks like in Finland where they even razed cemeteries. > Genocide is a strong word... how many dead people count as a genocide? You need to educate yourself about genocide[0], it's not about number of people, or killing, it's about the actions with the intent to bring suffering to a group a people in an attempt to make them disappear. Putin is wanted by the ICC for kidnapping and filtering Ukrainian children, one of the most disgusting crimes against humanity and constitutes one of the crimes genocide. Despite the fact that the US has been involved in wars, none of them had the sickening intent of making a group of people disappear just because they exist, and erase their culture. If you want to look at that intent you need to observe Nazi Germany, Holodomor, Chechen war, that's what genocide looks like. [0]https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml