I think royalty and licensing fees are more likely. Some formula will be invented to calculate the value of the training data, and model makers will have to pay

I think royalty and licensing fees are more likely. Some formula will be invented to calculate the value of the training data, and model makers will have to pay that out. But that only works for people with the ability to leverage the legal system. The rest of us will get told to pound sand. NYT and similar publishers are just looking for a new income stream. Rent seeking in the new AI age will probably be more profitable than producing new content.