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> but the programmer using AI will do. Where exactly will these magical programmers come from, if not the existing pool? That is the fundamental flaw with this
by skepticATX 3y ago
> but the programmer using AI will do.
Where exactly will these magical programmers come from, if not the existing pool? That is the fundamental flaw with this argument - there are not tens of thousands of people with not enough skill to be currently employed, but enough skill to out-compete current programmers as long as they can use GenAI.
If these tools get orders of magnitude more powerful then maybe we can have a real discussion about the number of programming jobs diminishing, but that hasn't been the case yet.
The reality is that for a typical software developer, you're looking at a single digit increase in productivity if you use Copilot. ChatGPT provides even less productivity increase right now.
- baby_souffle 3y agoSure , existing pool. But if I and co pilot can do double the work per unit time compared to just me, suddenly the pool is twice as large as it needs to be. Am I 2x productive? Depends on what I’m doing. But at almost no point since adopting copilot have I become 0 percent more productive so the pool is somewhere between 1 and 50 percent bigger than needed.