6 ms·

Finding data points from decades ago that is higher then the current data point doesn't invalidate that the recent trend is upwards.

• ceejayoz 3y ago
  The COVID pandemic is pretty clearly a black swan sort of scenario, and the article indicates its impacts are fading.
  • rufus_foreman 3y ago
    Internationally, there is evidence that COVID decreased rather than increased crime rates. One example: "We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime." -- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01139-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01139-z What evidence is there that COVID was the cause of increased crime rates in the US?
    • ceejayoz 3y ago
      > What evidence is there that COVID was the cause of increased crime rates in the US? The timing of the spike? Your link is specific to “stay at home policies”, correctly notes even those were short-lived, and that their relaxation in June/July/August saw the impact of those undone.
      • rufus_foreman 3y ago
        The timing was the same for pretty much every country on earth, wasn't it? Most countries had crime go down, in the US crime went up. What am I getting wrong here?