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This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems: https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-di

This certainly demonstrates how statistics can be misleading, or how averages can hide problems: https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-diaz-talks-about-record-breaking-homicide-numbers-2023-gun-violence-crime-homeless-crisis-homelessness-fentanyl-drugs-city-government https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-... >> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994. >> "Homelessness has been a huge driver of it," he responded. "Almost 20% of our homicides are related to homelessness. Eight percent is related to domestic violence." Cleveland: https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/local-news/investigations/murder-rates-are-falling-in-u-s-cities-but-not-in-cleveland https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/local-news/investigation...

adrr 3y ago
The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.
- adamredwoods 3y ago
  I'm not saying there isn't decline in places. I'm saying that if people think everything is just fine when there are places that are having serious issues.
  - etchalon 3y ago
    But the reverse is also true. There are people who think it's bad everywhere, when really, it's bad in a few places.
- edgyquant 3y ago
  It isn’t “pointing to hotspots.” Homicides spiked during Covid and still haven’t returned to those previous levels. Pointing to an overall slight dip while places like Seattle are at 30 year highs seems extremely dishonest.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    Arguing "it isn't pointing to hotspots" by... pointing to a hotspot again is just goofy. The article has a chart going back to 1960; even the COVID spike is low by 70s/80s/90s standards; 2023's numbers visibly aren't that far off 2014's lowest ever.
  - mlyle 3y ago
    Having places at 30 year highs is irrelevant to measure the overall trend--- when the US overall is 40% below the peak in the last 30 years. We're not quite as good as the 2014 low, but we've returned to the 5-6 per 100k band that we've spent the majority of the last 30 years in (9 years above, many far above; 5 years somewhat below).
- joemazerino 3y ago
  Declining compared to pandemic levels. Still astronomically high compared to the late 90s.
  - mlyle 3y ago
    > Still astronomically high compared to the late 90s. Homicide rate in '96 was 7.3 per 100k, falling pretty much linearly to 5.6 per 100k in '99. It looks like we will finish below 5.8 per 100k this year, and possibly below 5.6. That doesn't seem "astronomically high compared to the late 90s".

adrr 3y ago

The point is that homicides are declining in the US. Pointing to hot spots and saying otherwise is like saying climate change doesn't exist because some city set a record low temperature.

adamredwoods 3y ago
I'm not saying there isn't decline in places. I'm saying that if people think everything is just fine when there are places that are having serious issues.
- etchalon 3y ago
  But the reverse is also true. There are people who think it's bad everywhere, when really, it's bad in a few places.
edgyquant 3y ago
It isn’t “pointing to hotspots.” Homicides spiked during Covid and still haven’t returned to those previous levels. Pointing to an overall slight dip while places like Seattle are at 30 year highs seems extremely dishonest.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  Arguing "it isn't pointing to hotspots" by... pointing to a hotspot again is just goofy. The article has a chart going back to 1960; even the COVID spike is low by 70s/80s/90s standards; 2023's numbers visibly aren't that far off 2014's lowest ever.
- mlyle 3y ago
  Having places at 30 year highs is irrelevant to measure the overall trend--- when the US overall is 40% below the peak in the last 30 years. We're not quite as good as the 2014 low, but we've returned to the 5-6 per 100k band that we've spent the majority of the last 30 years in (9 years above, many far above; 5 years somewhat below).
joemazerino 3y ago
Declining compared to pandemic levels. Still astronomically high compared to the late 90s.
- mlyle 3y ago
  > Still astronomically high compared to the late 90s. Homicide rate in '96 was 7.3 per 100k, falling pretty much linearly to 5.6 per 100k in '99. It looks like we will finish below 5.8 per 100k this year, and possibly below 5.6. That doesn't seem "astronomically high compared to the late 90s".