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5 years?! You think the enterprise hardware hype will last that long? When it slows companies will look at other less valuable markets. Unless something fundam

by ttt3ts 3y ago

5 years?! You think the enterprise hardware hype will last that long? When it slows companies will look at other less valuable markets. Unless something fundamentally changes with the capabilities of produced tech I think demand will be saturated before 5 years.

zamadatix 3y ago
I think, in general, hardware markets are permanently splitting and the high end side will not stop scaling for at least a decade. From storage to network to compute the needs of the large scale customers grows ever farther from the needs of the consumer. The hyperscaler class are rushing in 400G NICs with hundreds of CPU cores, TBs of RAM, and hundreds of TBs of high speed flash per rack unit asking when they'll be able to make that 800G or 1.6 T and so on. Meanwhile consumers are just warming up to the idea wired and wireless connections can be slightly faster than a gig and their wild gaming desktop can have 16 cores with 64 GB of RAM and 4 TB of flash storage. GPUs aren't really any different - AMD has even had a completely separate computer architecture for years and Nvidia has entire custom heterogenous scale out designs. If you had asked me "do you think it's possible x86 will scale to over 500 cores per rack unit by 2023" in 2013 I would have said "doubt it, Xeon Phi doesn't even look to be on track for people to want to half ass getting to that number". If you were to ask me now how much we'll have scaled in 10 years this time I'd rather now say "not sure, but we probably aren't going to have stopped cold at the 5 year mark because the hype for more scaling died out". As a result of this split I think consumer hardware will still continue to grow slower. Not because of lack of capability but lack of market interest. People don't have a use case for hundreds of cores or the like, they'd rather smaller, quieter, and more efficient at ever decreasing price points. I'm much more worried investment in consumer GPUs and CPUs for traditional desktops will actually die out and start to stagnate just because the market is getting squeezed ever smaller from both the low end and high end sides.
- ttt3ts 3y ago
  Interesting. I guess I agree on the idea just not the specific number of 48GB. Amd & Nvidia both offer prosumer GPUs with 48GB, the W7900 and A6000 respectively. I don't see how they would not increase that in 5 years?

by ttt3ts 3y ago

zamadatix 3y ago

I think, in general, hardware markets are permanently splitting and the high end side will not stop scaling for at least a decade. From storage to network to compute the needs of the large scale customers grows ever farther from the needs of the consumer. The hyperscaler class are rushing in 400G NICs with hundreds of CPU cores, TBs of RAM, and hundreds of TBs of high speed flash per rack unit asking when they'll be able to make that 800G or 1.6 T and so on. Meanwhile consumers are just warming up to the idea wired and wireless connections can be slightly faster than a gig and their wild gaming desktop can have 16 cores with 64 GB of RAM and 4 TB of flash storage. GPUs aren't really any different - AMD has even had a completely separate computer architecture for years and Nvidia has entire custom heterogenous scale out designs. If you had asked me "do you think it's possible x86 will scale to over 500 cores per rack unit by 2023" in 2013 I would have said "doubt it, Xeon Phi doesn't even look to be on track for people to want to half ass getting to that number". If you were to ask me now how much we'll have scaled in 10 years this time I'd rather now say "not sure, but we probably aren't going to have stopped cold at the 5 year mark because the hype for more scaling died out". As a result of this split I think consumer hardware will still continue to grow slower. Not because of lack of capability but lack of market interest. People don't have a use case for hundreds of cores or the like, they'd rather smaller, quieter, and more efficient at ever decreasing price points. I'm much more worried investment in consumer GPUs and CPUs for traditional desktops will actually die out and start to stagnate just because the market is getting squeezed ever smaller from both the low end and high end sides.

ttt3ts 3y ago
Interesting. I guess I agree on the idea just not the specific number of 48GB. Amd & Nvidia both offer prosumer GPUs with 48GB, the W7900 and A6000 respectively. I don't see how they would not increase that in 5 years?