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I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be wo

I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything. In order for the speculation to pay off, somebody, at the end of the day has to pay for it to use it, otherwise it's just a ponzi scheme. It might take a long time, but at some point the chickens will come home to roost. Or roast...

lifestyleguru 3y ago
> but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything Have you seen the old city center of Prague in Czechia? or any old city center in any major city in Europe. These numbers only go up.
- CorrectHorseBat 3y ago
  Because there's rising demand due to more people moving to cities and tourism. Also don't forget Europe's population is still growing despite a low birth rate.
FirmwareBurner 3y ago
>I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything. Internal migration is a big thing even in countries with tanking birthrates. Entire villages are being emptied as old people die and their kids move to the cities for studies and work. The population overall is shrinking but housing demand in cities is still growing fast. So yes, you can have a booming property market in a country with shrinking population. Nobody's gonna live in those forgotten villages with cheap empty housing but no schools, universities, hospitals, doctors, jobs and entertainment opportunities. >at the end of the day has to pay for it to use it, otherwise it's just a ponzi scheme. The housing market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- laszlojamf 3y ago
  Yeah, I wouldn't bet against it XD but it doesn't follow that it will stay irrational _forever_
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    Look at external migration from the last ~5 years then. Wars, povery, political extremism, climate change, etc. refugee waves will only continue so I'm pretty sure hosuing demand wil keep going up no matter how your local demographics tank. Safe to assume housing market aint going to go bust anytime soon if you live anywhere in the first world cities.
    - laszlojamf 3y ago
      That's assuming western countries let refugees in. Right now, that's not on the political agenda. That might change if the housing market forces their hand but between xenophobia and greed, I'm not sure which one wins out in the end

lifestyleguru 3y ago

> but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything Have you seen the old city center of Prague in Czechia? or any old city center in any major city in Europe. These numbers only go up.

CorrectHorseBat 3y ago
Because there's rising demand due to more people moving to cities and tourism. Also don't forget Europe's population is still growing despite a low birth rate.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago

>I agree that housing prices are somewhat decoupled from local population trends, but at the end of the day _someone_ has to live on the property for it to be worth anything. Internal migration is a big thing even in countries with tanking birthrates. Entire villages are being emptied as old people die and their kids move to the cities for studies and work. The population overall is shrinking but housing demand in cities is still growing fast. So yes, you can have a booming property market in a country with shrinking population. Nobody's gonna live in those forgotten villages with cheap empty housing but no schools, universities, hospitals, doctors, jobs and entertainment opportunities. >at the end of the day has to pay for it to use it, otherwise it's just a ponzi scheme. The housing market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

laszlojamf 3y ago
Yeah, I wouldn't bet against it XD but it doesn't follow that it will stay irrational _forever_
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  Look at external migration from the last ~5 years then. Wars, povery, political extremism, climate change, etc. refugee waves will only continue so I'm pretty sure hosuing demand wil keep going up no matter how your local demographics tank. Safe to assume housing market aint going to go bust anytime soon if you live anywhere in the first world cities.
  - laszlojamf 3y ago
    That's assuming western countries let refugees in. Right now, that's not on the political agenda. That might change if the housing market forces their hand but between xenophobia and greed, I'm not sure which one wins out in the end