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I think the market is shrinking because the prices are going up because innovation is impossible (compared to alternative transportation tech) because of insane
by AYBABTME 3y ago
I think the market is shrinking because the prices are going up because innovation is impossible (compared to alternative transportation tech) because of insane certification costs which creates a reinforced monopoly on existing players and erodes incentives to change and improve. The market ossifies, costs keep going up and so demand keeps shrinking. It's a feedback loop that ends with the annihilation of GA. The regulatory agency is suffocating the segment.
- MichaelZuo 3y agoIt's not the 'certification cost' that is the root problem, it's the liability cost of an accident, which will only ever increase in the future. The 'certification cost' is just the threshold at which the FAA is fine with all the liability being offloaded on to them, for engines made and maintained to spec at least. i.e. For this cost to actually decrease would require an entirely different society, one that doesn't settle things through the judicial/administrative system whatsoever. But then costs may increase somewhere else.