57 ms·

It's merely one factor among many, I'm sure, but don't the results, ever decreasing fertility, speak for themselves? Why would you attribute decreasing fertili

by b112 3y ago

It's merely one factor among many, I'm sure, but don't the results, ever decreasing fertility, speak for themselves? Why would you attribute decreasing fertility, something that affects every western nation on the planet, as something to do with US health care? It even affects Russia, China, Japan, literally every "modernized" nation. People have had condoms and other methods to prevent pregnancy, but no one ever cared about the cost of kids before the last few decades. This is merely an excuse, for what is really happening... Lack of fertility due to some environmental factor. If it was cultural, Japan and China ... nations most divergent from US and Western cultures, would not be affected the same way. It doesn't matter about access to the pill, or other measures, nations with or without the pill in wide use have low birth rates. Nations strong on women's rights, and more "traditional" views on women, also have reduced fertility and births. It's not cultural. It's not choice. It's not cost. It's not conscious. There is, quite literally, something affecting a drive to procreate, which is entirely different from the drive to have sex. Given that it's not cultural, and that it's not access to contraceptives, one has to wonder what it could be. Microplastics? Electricity? The types of food consumed, eg preservatives in modern foods seen in all the above countries? There can be guesses, but no one is even doing any substantial research into this. Meanwhile, the planet's population is set to halve within 30 years. And if this trend continues, if fertility / birth rates continue to decline as they have been, we will likely be down to 500M people worldwide before the 2100s. That is an immensely alarming trend, which leads to human extinction by the 2200s, due to "whatever it is" completely blocking all attempts to have offspring. This trend also doesn't take into account a global plague, or re-emergence of world war, or devastating health issues due to global warming. Should that happen, with "loads of our current, younger offspring" killed in war, or by plague, the trend is astonishingly scary and disturbing. Sorry to be a bit excessive in my reply, but the whole fertility thing is greatly disturbing to me.

shiroiuma 3y ago
What makes you think China and Japan have cultures "most divergent" from western cultures? Have you ever even been to these countries? I live in Japan and it's very much like a western country, though a couple decades behind in some ways (like smoking rates), and a lot safer (compared to the US where half the population is armed); the main difference is language, and that it isn't so individualistic. Birthrates are down just like other western nations, because of many of the same factors: contraception is readily available, women are educated and have careers which are incompatible with being full-time mothers (what I mean here is that a woman, anywhere, having a career is generally incompatible with parenthood). If you want to see a highly-divergent culture, go to Afghanistan or parts of Africa. The fundamental "problem" I see is that, in developed nations, women have rights and agency and are able to make decisions about their lives and bodies. This is fundamentally incompatible with a high birth rate. In traditional and religious cultures, it isn't this way. So I think we have 3 choices: 1) Continue on our current path, where women are allowed to be full and equal citizens, and see continued drops in birthrates, though some policy changes (financial assistance for parents etc.) might help a little bit. 2) Revoke women's rights and make them second-class citizens. Ban contraception and abortion. Don't allow them to go to college or have real jobs. Adopt a state religion that promotes having lots of children, and force everyone to follow it, or else. Basically, emulate the Taliban. 3) Adopt some rather radical change to society (and maybe human biology) that avoids #2 and allows for equality and freedom while still having the effect of birthrates over 2.1. I'm not too sure about what this might be, though I have some ideas that have variously appeared in sci-fi.
hotpotamus 3y ago
Oh I think it's ultimately modernity that's the cause; the "Death of God" as Nietzsche put it. As religion recedes around the world, humans have found no real replacement for the meaning it provided and perhaps no reason to continue things. I think that's ultimately why I never had any desire to have children myself; I see no reason to put them through the same suffering I went through to no real purpose and then presumably go on to face their own philosophical (and other) struggles. That's me; I don't really know what reason everyone else has (though increasingly I find I'm not really such an outlier), but the more practical stuff like health insurance, cost of education, housing, childcare, etc... sure looks like death by a thousand cuts. Perhaps as you say they are excuses. I've been told that I must be bitter when I point out all the money I saved since I never wanted children, but really the main thing I've felt is relief - I have plenty of anxiety over the state of things, and knowing that I don't have to try and provide for dependents for a few decades is one of the things that keeps me from over-worrying. I've literally known people to kill themselves over such pressures, and I don't think I'd handle them that well either. I don't want to tell you not to worry (when has that ever helped anyone?); you have the right to your feelings, but I think your timeline is quite a bit more aggressive than most current population projections.
- watwut 3y ago
  Back then in those times, children were also your social security. Expectation and very strong one was that they will help you in the old age. Including when parent was abysive or conteolling. Expectation now is that you care yourself and kids have zero responsibility. Living with parents shameful, giving money to parent signifies lack of boundaries. Plus back then, anticonception available to everyone was simply not a thing. Sex meant kids.
- b112 3y ago
  Nothing is more primal than procreation. Nothing. It predates religion, cities, agriculture, and humanity itself. You cite a cultural thing, religion, but birthrates are down exclusive of culture, it is why I mentioned cultures quite foreign to the West. You mention costs, which is why I mentioned historical birth control, for example, plenty of children were born during the great depression! Let me put this another way. We know that tiny changes in the chemical balance of the brain, can turn a calm, cultured person into a raving lunatic. Just see what happens with an excess of calcium in the blood, for example! We have a myriad of treatments for depression, for psychosis, for other issues often derived from more than pure genetics. We know that levels of testosterone in males have declined. Yet when I mention that the problem could be biological, most scoff. I find this, in my opinion, delusional stance to be quite concerning. People love to believe that their actions, in their entirety, are the outcome of their rational thought. But this is procreation, the most powerful, primal drive a species has.

by b112 3y ago

shiroiuma 3y ago

What makes you think China and Japan have cultures "most divergent" from western cultures? Have you ever even been to these countries? I live in Japan and it's very much like a western country, though a couple decades behind in some ways (like smoking rates), and a lot safer (compared to the US where half the population is armed); the main difference is language, and that it isn't so individualistic. Birthrates are down just like other western nations, because of many of the same factors: contraception is readily available, women are educated and have careers which are incompatible with being full-time mothers (what I mean here is that a woman, anywhere, having a career is generally incompatible with parenthood). If you want to see a highly-divergent culture, go to Afghanistan or parts of Africa. The fundamental "problem" I see is that, in developed nations, women have rights and agency and are able to make decisions about their lives and bodies. This is fundamentally incompatible with a high birth rate. In traditional and religious cultures, it isn't this way. So I think we have 3 choices: 1) Continue on our current path, where women are allowed to be full and equal citizens, and see continued drops in birthrates, though some policy changes (financial assistance for parents etc.) might help a little bit. 2) Revoke women's rights and make them second-class citizens. Ban contraception and abortion. Don't allow them to go to college or have real jobs. Adopt a state religion that promotes having lots of children, and force everyone to follow it, or else. Basically, emulate the Taliban. 3) Adopt some rather radical change to society (and maybe human biology) that avoids #2 and allows for equality and freedom while still having the effect of birthrates over 2.1. I'm not too sure about what this might be, though I have some ideas that have variously appeared in sci-fi.

hotpotamus 3y ago

Oh I think it's ultimately modernity that's the cause; the "Death of God" as Nietzsche put it. As religion recedes around the world, humans have found no real replacement for the meaning it provided and perhaps no reason to continue things. I think that's ultimately why I never had any desire to have children myself; I see no reason to put them through the same suffering I went through to no real purpose and then presumably go on to face their own philosophical (and other) struggles. That's me; I don't really know what reason everyone else has (though increasingly I find I'm not really such an outlier), but the more practical stuff like health insurance, cost of education, housing, childcare, etc... sure looks like death by a thousand cuts. Perhaps as you say they are excuses. I've been told that I must be bitter when I point out all the money I saved since I never wanted children, but really the main thing I've felt is relief - I have plenty of anxiety over the state of things, and knowing that I don't have to try and provide for dependents for a few decades is one of the things that keeps me from over-worrying. I've literally known people to kill themselves over such pressures, and I don't think I'd handle them that well either. I don't want to tell you not to worry (when has that ever helped anyone?); you have the right to your feelings, but I think your timeline is quite a bit more aggressive than most current population projections.

watwut 3y ago
Back then in those times, children were also your social security. Expectation and very strong one was that they will help you in the old age. Including when parent was abysive or conteolling. Expectation now is that you care yourself and kids have zero responsibility. Living with parents shameful, giving money to parent signifies lack of boundaries. Plus back then, anticonception available to everyone was simply not a thing. Sex meant kids.
b112 3y ago
Nothing is more primal than procreation. Nothing. It predates religion, cities, agriculture, and humanity itself. You cite a cultural thing, religion, but birthrates are down exclusive of culture, it is why I mentioned cultures quite foreign to the West. You mention costs, which is why I mentioned historical birth control, for example, plenty of children were born during the great depression! Let me put this another way. We know that tiny changes in the chemical balance of the brain, can turn a calm, cultured person into a raving lunatic. Just see what happens with an excess of calcium in the blood, for example! We have a myriad of treatments for depression, for psychosis, for other issues often derived from more than pure genetics. We know that levels of testosterone in males have declined. Yet when I mention that the problem could be biological, most scoff. I find this, in my opinion, delusional stance to be quite concerning. People love to believe that their actions, in their entirety, are the outcome of their rational thought. But this is procreation, the most powerful, primal drive a species has.