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That's the supply side. But is there enough demand to buy all those cars? Every time a new model with better battery chemistry, longer range, faster charging i
by yorwba 3y ago
That's the supply side. But is there enough demand to buy all those cars?
Every time a new model with better battery chemistry, longer range, faster charging is released, it makes a bunch of older models with previous-gen batteries, shorter range, slower charging obsolete to the point of unsellability. Then they end up rotting in an overgrown lot somewhere. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-china-ev-graveyards/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-china-ev-graveyards/
Because of the fast release cadence, a model might become outmoded before it sold enough cars to recoup the development cost, but of course manufacturers can't just stop to save money while everyone else is putting out new models at breakneck speed and eating into their market share. So they're caught in a hamster wheel, burning cash while hoping that someone else will go bankrupt first. WM Motor looks like a candidate: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinese-ev-startup-wm-motor-files-bankruptcy-2023-10-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chines...
There's some techlore floating around https://pandapawdragonclaw.blog/2023/12/03/bri-notebook-the-economics-of-chinas-involuted-kings/ https://pandapawdragonclaw.blog/2023/12/03/bri-notebook-the-... claiming that the overcrowded market is actually good for the industry as a whole because it makes it more competitive abroad, but that's cold comfort for investors who hoped to make their money back and then some.
- novok 3y agoIt's a bit strange they don't even bother to recycle the battery packs for other usages.
- fancl20 3y agoThis happened a lot in other industries if not every, like IEM (Chi-fi), PC gaming handheld, mechanical keyboard, smartphone, 3d printer, solar pannel...At this point it feels a combination of abundant manufacturing know-how, strong entrepreneur culture, fast pace decision making, government policy, fierce market competition and all other reasons creates a synchronizing effect that always causes overcapacity + racing to bottom. Ironically Chinese government has quite a lot experience handling overcapacity, sometimes caused by them sometimes not :/