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Battery production will increase, yes, but so will electricity demand as transportation, heating, and industrial processes are electrified. Right now electricit

Battery production will increase, yes, but so will electricity demand as transportation, heating, and industrial processes are electrified. Right now electricity use is only 37% of total energy use [1]. > Average US electricity production is 500GW, at 8-10 hours that's only 4TWh Again, it's 12 hours for diurnal storage not 8 hours. More than 12 hours during the winter, actually. And diurnal storage isn't the only type of storage that's necessary. Factor in storage to even out seasonal fluctuations and you're looking at days maybe even weeks of energy storage. And again, 500 GW is going to turn into 1,300 GW as the rest of our energy use is electrified. Batteries don't last 20 years, not even close. Diurnal storage is going to be cycled daily. A typical lithium ion cell lasts 300-500 charge cycles [2]. You can prolong this by limiting depth of discharge but this has the side effect of reducing the usable capacity. Let's be generous and assume 2,000 cycles that's only 5 and a half years. 200 GWh per year is still a massive amount of batteries. We're talking about over a third of global battery production to provide 8 hours of storage for just one country. And again, in reality we need more than 8 hours of storage and batteries don't last nearly as long as you claim. There's a reason why plans for a primarily renewable grid assume that compressed air, hydrogen, or something else will account for the majority of storage: batteries aren't available in sufficient quantity, and deploying grid storage at any significant scale will severely reduce availability of batteries for EVs. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States 2. https://au.renogy.com/blog/everything-you-need-to-know-about-lithium-battery-charging-cycles/#:~:text=How%20Many%20Cycles%20Can%20You,completely%20drained%2C%20and%20wholly%20recharged https://au.renogy.com/blog/everything-you-need-to-know-about....

epistasis 3y ago
In a decade of following plans for 100% renewable grids, compressed air has never made it as a conceivable solution. Similarly hydrogen almost never gets on the list, and it's only there assuming some sort of currently non-existent tech advances far in excess of what is ever allowed to batteries. And yet, batteries make the list on all these plans! As for your link, this is just flat out misinformation for grid batteries. Might apply to phones: > How Many Cycles Can You Get Out Of A Lithium-Ion Battery? >A Lithium-Ion battery's average life span is 2 to 3 years or 300 to 500 charge cycles, whichever comes first. As we put it, a charging cycle is a duration of utilization when the battery is fully charged, completely drained, and wholly recharged. Industrial grid storage is rated to daily discharge for more than 10 years, with warranties typically around 12-14 years and expected life far afterward. 5000-10,000 cycles is more realistic. Every five years, battery production capacity is growing 10x, prices drop dramatically. What is this limit? What is the reason it's suddenly going to stop? There's no answer other that I can see other than "I thought this 10 years ago so it's probably true too."
- Manuel_D 3y ago
  > Industrial grid storage is rated to daily discharge for more than 10 years, with warranties typically around 12-14 years and expected life far afterward. 5000-10,000 cycles is more realistic. I'd be very, very interested in these lithium ion batteries that have a life span of 10,000 cycles. The only way this would be achieved is with a very small depth of discharge, which severely reduces usable storage. I at least provided a link to back up my claims, yet you accuse me of spreading misinformation despite not doing anything at all to back up yours. Alternative chemistries like lithium iron phosphate achieve 3,000 - 5,000 cycles [1] at 80% depth of discharge. They last 5-10 years, not 14 [2]. But that's a new batter chemistry with smaller share of the battery market than typical lithium ion, and they also have smaller capacities than lithium ion and lower max power output. Batteries are already being bottlenecked by input materials. Manufacturing accounts for only a quarter of a battery's cost [3]. Scaling out batteries is already becoming a problem of resource extraction. Even if the manufacturing cost is optimized to zero, the cost of inputs are still there. The cost of a new car went from a quarter of a million dollars in 1900 to $25,000 in 1920. Would it be reasonable to observe that the cost of a car was falling by a quarter every two decades and predict that a new car would cost $6,250 in 1940, $1,500 in 1960, and $100 by 2000? Why would this scaling stop? What's the limit? Why didn't cars keep dropping in price? 1. https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-battery-last/#:~:text=Lifepo4%20batteries%20have%20around%203000,fully%20discharged%20and%20charged%20again https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-batt.... 2. https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-battery-last/#:~:text=Lifepo4%20batteries%20can%20last%205,pack%20up%20sooner%20than%20expected https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-batt.... 3. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...
- pfdietz 3y ago
  Hydrogen (or e-fuels) make it into plenty of plans. The important point is that it's for the last part of the journey to 100% RE, and makes little sense as long as natural gas is still being used. But for that last part, it's likely to be very useful.

epistasis 3y ago

In a decade of following plans for 100% renewable grids, compressed air has never made it as a conceivable solution. Similarly hydrogen almost never gets on the list, and it's only there assuming some sort of currently non-existent tech advances far in excess of what is ever allowed to batteries. And yet, batteries make the list on all these plans! As for your link, this is just flat out misinformation for grid batteries. Might apply to phones: > How Many Cycles Can You Get Out Of A Lithium-Ion Battery? >A Lithium-Ion battery's average life span is 2 to 3 years or 300 to 500 charge cycles, whichever comes first. As we put it, a charging cycle is a duration of utilization when the battery is fully charged, completely drained, and wholly recharged. Industrial grid storage is rated to daily discharge for more than 10 years, with warranties typically around 12-14 years and expected life far afterward. 5000-10,000 cycles is more realistic. Every five years, battery production capacity is growing 10x, prices drop dramatically. What is this limit? What is the reason it's suddenly going to stop? There's no answer other that I can see other than "I thought this 10 years ago so it's probably true too."

Manuel_D 3y ago
> Industrial grid storage is rated to daily discharge for more than 10 years, with warranties typically around 12-14 years and expected life far afterward. 5000-10,000 cycles is more realistic. I'd be very, very interested in these lithium ion batteries that have a life span of 10,000 cycles. The only way this would be achieved is with a very small depth of discharge, which severely reduces usable storage. I at least provided a link to back up my claims, yet you accuse me of spreading misinformation despite not doing anything at all to back up yours. Alternative chemistries like lithium iron phosphate achieve 3,000 - 5,000 cycles [1] at 80% depth of discharge. They last 5-10 years, not 14 [2]. But that's a new batter chemistry with smaller share of the battery market than typical lithium ion, and they also have smaller capacities than lithium ion and lower max power output. Batteries are already being bottlenecked by input materials. Manufacturing accounts for only a quarter of a battery's cost [3]. Scaling out batteries is already becoming a problem of resource extraction. Even if the manufacturing cost is optimized to zero, the cost of inputs are still there. The cost of a new car went from a quarter of a million dollars in 1900 to $25,000 in 1920. Would it be reasonable to observe that the cost of a car was falling by a quarter every two decades and predict that a new car would cost $6,250 in 1940, $1,500 in 1960, and $100 by 2000? Why would this scaling stop? What's the limit? Why didn't cars keep dropping in price? 1. https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-battery-last/#:~:text=Lifepo4%20batteries%20have%20around%203000,fully%20discharged%20and%20charged%20again https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-batt.... 2. https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-battery-last/#:~:text=Lifepo4%20batteries%20can%20last%205,pack%20up%20sooner%20than%20expected https://ecotreelithium.co.uk/news/how-long-does-lifepo4-batt.... 3. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...
pfdietz 3y ago
Hydrogen (or e-fuels) make it into plenty of plans. The important point is that it's for the last part of the journey to 100% RE, and makes little sense as long as natural gas is still being used. But for that last part, it's likely to be very useful.