3 ms·

Nuclear might not be able to compete in the U.S. and Europe, but that’s largely because of a ridiculous regulatory regime and has very little to do with the act

Nuclear might not be able to compete in the U.S. and Europe, but that’s largely because of a ridiculous regulatory regime and has very little to do with the actual tech.

wolverine876 3y ago
People love to say it, but is there evidence? I've never seen it - which doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but that this claim needs it.
- Manuel_D 3y ago
  Nuclear was much cheaper in the 1970s and early 80s: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Overnight-Construction-Cost-of-US-Nuclear-Power-Reactors-by-Construction-Start-Date_fig8_292964046 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Overnight-Construction-C... This wasn't just due to regulatory influence, it was also due to economies of scale. But the two are related, more regulation results in fewer builds. Fewer builds reduces economies of scale and thus increases costs. Which results in even fewer nuclear builds, and so on.
  - angiosperm 3y ago
    In other words, nuke cost has only ever increased, however much was built.
    - Manuel_D 3y ago
      On a per-MW basis nuclear power dropped in cost during the 1950s. See the small blue dots round the late 1950s and early 60s? Compare that with the cluster of red dots.
      - wolverine876 3y ago
        Early, low-hanging fruit?
        Manuel_D 3y ago
        That, and larger plants. Things like concrete containment vessels have costs relative to the surface area of a hemisphere, while power output scales with the volume. But the big driver was economies of scale. Building multiple copies of the same or similar design means you can have longer production runs of steam generators, pressure vessels, turbines, etc.
      - angiosperm 3y ago
        I.e., cost has risen monotonically since the 1950s.
        Manuel_D 3y ago
        Incorrect, it fell from the 1950s through the 1960s.
        angiosperm 3y ago
        I.e., cost has risen monotonically since the '60s. Costs were all over the map in the 50s.
        pfdietz 3y ago
        In the early days, vendors didn't know how much NPPs would cost, so they priced them to sell, so they could gain that data. Later prices reflected that experience. One can view the increase over time of nuclear costs as the replacement of wishful thinking with actual experience.
  - wolverine876 3y ago
    Thanks for the paper. Quick summary (of a quick read): Most research has studied US and France; this paper adds other countries. Costs have greatly increased in US and France, but not always in other countries. They've decreased recently in South Korea. > (economies of scale) Why do you blame economies of scale? The paper doesn't say that, afaict. Also they say, "increased environmental and safety regulation ... may have led to cost increases", which does not sound conclusive. Also, I think we really need to be talking about lifetime cost, including construction, operation, and decommissioning. In many things, spending more up front reduces later costs.
edm0nd 3y ago
We can thank the hippies of the 60s and 70s for all their anti-nuclear silliness for making the nuclear industry heavily over regulated.
- Toutouxc 3y ago
  There was also the Soviet nuclear fireworks project in the 80s that didn’t help much.
  - hef19898 3y ago
    And then it took until the 90s to have an actual imopact on policy. It always puzzles how people get even the most basic timelines wrong.
- _ph_ 3y ago
  You have to to be honest. They were able to push for stronger regulations not because politics mainly listens to hippies. Stronger regulations were prudent considering the safety levels of the earlier reactor design. Without those regulations, many more cheap, but less safe reactors might have been built. Of which more had gone bad over years. So yes, if you will, thank the hippies for preventing several nuclear incidents.
VBprogrammer 3y ago
China has installed more renewable energy than the rest of the world put together last year. I'm pretty sure we can rule out any "ridiculous regulatory regime" issues there.
- fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
  They’re also building a lot of nuclear: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1129876/china-nuclear-power-generation-volume/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1129876/china-nuclear-po...
  - ViewTrick1002 3y ago
    China is barely building nuclear anymore. China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
  - pydry 3y ago
    A moderate civilian nuclear supply chain and skills base helps keep a lid on the maintenance and construction of nuclear submarines, carriers and nuclear bombs.
- willy_k 3y ago
  If you’re going to try to determine how China is approaching nuclear power, it’s probably more useful to look at data related to that [0], instead of drawing conclusions from tangential data. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
  - VBprogrammer 3y ago
    The point I was making is that China isn't inclined to do things just to appease some regulatory requirement. They are also building an incredible amount of Coal power.

Nuclear might not be able to compete in the U.S. and Europe, but that’s largely because of a ridiculous regulatory regime and has very little to do with the actual tech.

wolverine876 3y ago

People love to say it, but is there evidence? I've never seen it - which doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but that this claim needs it.

Manuel_D 3y ago
Nuclear was much cheaper in the 1970s and early 80s: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Overnight-Construction-Cost-of-US-Nuclear-Power-Reactors-by-Construction-Start-Date_fig8_292964046 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Overnight-Construction-C... This wasn't just due to regulatory influence, it was also due to economies of scale. But the two are related, more regulation results in fewer builds. Fewer builds reduces economies of scale and thus increases costs. Which results in even fewer nuclear builds, and so on.
- angiosperm 3y ago
  In other words, nuke cost has only ever increased, however much was built.
  - Manuel_D 3y ago
    On a per-MW basis nuclear power dropped in cost during the 1950s. See the small blue dots round the late 1950s and early 60s? Compare that with the cluster of red dots.
    - wolverine876 3y ago
      Early, low-hanging fruit?
      - Manuel_D 3y ago
        That, and larger plants. Things like concrete containment vessels have costs relative to the surface area of a hemisphere, while power output scales with the volume. But the big driver was economies of scale. Building multiple copies of the same or similar design means you can have longer production runs of steam generators, pressure vessels, turbines, etc.
    - angiosperm 3y ago
      I.e., cost has risen monotonically since the 1950s.
      - Manuel_D 3y ago
        Incorrect, it fell from the 1950s through the 1960s.
        angiosperm 3y ago
        I.e., cost has risen monotonically since the '60s. Costs were all over the map in the 50s.
        pfdietz 3y ago
        In the early days, vendors didn't know how much NPPs would cost, so they priced them to sell, so they could gain that data. Later prices reflected that experience. One can view the increase over time of nuclear costs as the replacement of wishful thinking with actual experience.
- wolverine876 3y ago
  Thanks for the paper. Quick summary (of a quick read): Most research has studied US and France; this paper adds other countries. Costs have greatly increased in US and France, but not always in other countries. They've decreased recently in South Korea. > (economies of scale) Why do you blame economies of scale? The paper doesn't say that, afaict. Also they say, "increased environmental and safety regulation ... may have led to cost increases", which does not sound conclusive. Also, I think we really need to be talking about lifetime cost, including construction, operation, and decommissioning. In many things, spending more up front reduces later costs.

edm0nd 3y ago

We can thank the hippies of the 60s and 70s for all their anti-nuclear silliness for making the nuclear industry heavily over regulated.

Toutouxc 3y ago
There was also the Soviet nuclear fireworks project in the 80s that didn’t help much.
- hef19898 3y ago
  And then it took until the 90s to have an actual imopact on policy. It always puzzles how people get even the most basic timelines wrong.
_ph_ 3y ago
You have to to be honest. They were able to push for stronger regulations not because politics mainly listens to hippies. Stronger regulations were prudent considering the safety levels of the earlier reactor design. Without those regulations, many more cheap, but less safe reactors might have been built. Of which more had gone bad over years. So yes, if you will, thank the hippies for preventing several nuclear incidents.

VBprogrammer 3y ago

China has installed more renewable energy than the rest of the world put together last year. I'm pretty sure we can rule out any "ridiculous regulatory regime" issues there.

fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
They’re also building a lot of nuclear: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1129876/china-nuclear-power-generation-volume/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1129876/china-nuclear-po...
- ViewTrick1002 3y ago
  China is barely building nuclear anymore. China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
- pydry 3y ago
  A moderate civilian nuclear supply chain and skills base helps keep a lid on the maintenance and construction of nuclear submarines, carriers and nuclear bombs.
willy_k 3y ago
If you’re going to try to determine how China is approaching nuclear power, it’s probably more useful to look at data related to that [0], instead of drawing conclusions from tangential data. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
- VBprogrammer 3y ago
  The point I was making is that China isn't inclined to do things just to appease some regulatory requirement. They are also building an incredible amount of Coal power.