3 ms·

> Every Covid-19 infection carries with it a 15% chance of Long Covid Then 7% of the German population, 5.5% of the UK population etc.¹, should, as a lower bou

by lucb1e 3y ago

> Every Covid-19 infection carries with it a 15% chance of Long Covid Then 7% of the German population, 5.5% of the UK population etc.¹, should, as a lower bound because that's only confirmed cases (with PCR afaik), have long covid now, based on OWID² The percentage should probably be double or quadruple, if you consider how many infections are asymptomatic or not tested for other reasons (no wish/need for medical help, mistrust of "the system"..). (Edit: yeah double is about right for the part of people that will never even have considered getting tested: an article³ cites a study from 2021 in which 40.5% of people who contracted the virus had no symptoms) In reality, I'm not seeing one in ten persons crippled from covid ¹ those are simply the first countries I checked because I expect them to have good data, but probably that's representative for any ~densely populated region ² https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... ³ https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/4-in-10-people-with-a-sars-cov-2-infection-may-have-no-symptoms https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/4-in-10-people-wit...

btbuildem 3y ago
I was going by the figures from Stats Canada [1] which indicates that one in nine Canadians have had Long Covid, I image there would be some variation based on locale. An epidemiologist I follow on Twitter correlated the StatsCan data with predictive models (which were showing the cumulative risk of LC given number of infections) and the numbers line up incredibly well [2]. > In reality, I'm not seeing one in ten persons crippled from covid That's the tragic part: you will not see them, they're effectively invisible. Unless it's someone you know, who has suddenly faded from view -- how would you know? These people are staying at home, quietly tucked away, being taken care of by loved ones if they're lucky to have them. [1]: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231208/dq231208a-eng.htm?HPA=1?utm_source=twt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-statcan-covid19-a-h-c2-23-24 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231208/dq231... [2]: https://x.com/DavidSteadson/status/1733246631959507246 https://x.com/DavidSteadson/status/1733246631959507246
- lucb1e 3y ago
  I would indeed know by people disappearing: I know plenty of colleagues, family members, and friends, that a 1-in-10 statistic ought to manifest itself. It is impactful enough to do this type of bed care that I would also certainly hear it if one of those colleagues/family/friends had to take care of another person, and for a subset of those, where I'd hear if anyone in their extended circles had such a need. When MH17 was downed in 2014, carrying ~300 Dutch (on ~17 million, 0.002%, compare that to the percentages we're talking about here! That's 3.5 orders of magnitude), it seemed like everyone in the country knew someone who died; for me, it took a few weeks but it turned out that a friend vaguely knew someone who had died in the Russian attack. I also know some elderly people who died from covid, so those stats line up with experience to within error margins. The discrepancy probably lies in the "have had" part you mentioned. The majority of this group were never as severely ill as the person this thread is about, nor had any issues lasting this long. I know one person who said they got tired faster for a few months after contracting covid fairly early on, but it's not like their life was ruined (during that time, they partially stopped doing the sports that they enjoyed so that they had the energy at work and for household chores; afaik that was the main change it forced upon them beyond the first two weeks). That is not to say long covid, or severe long covid, doesn't happen or to downplay the impact on those to whom it does happen. Diana is an undeniable example. I'm just disagreeing with the "you've got at 15% chance of »a debilitating, fully disabling, long-term illness with no known cures or mitigations« per infection, and the odds worsen further with every reinfection" part. That severity level is not quite that likely

by lucb1e 3y ago

btbuildem 3y ago

I was going by the figures from Stats Canada [1] which indicates that one in nine Canadians have had Long Covid, I image there would be some variation based on locale. An epidemiologist I follow on Twitter correlated the StatsCan data with predictive models (which were showing the cumulative risk of LC given number of infections) and the numbers line up incredibly well [2]. > In reality, I'm not seeing one in ten persons crippled from covid That's the tragic part: you will not see them, they're effectively invisible. Unless it's someone you know, who has suddenly faded from view -- how would you know? These people are staying at home, quietly tucked away, being taken care of by loved ones if they're lucky to have them. [1]: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231208/dq231208a-eng.htm?HPA=1?utm_source=twt&utm_medium=smo&utm_campaign=statcan-statcan-covid19-a-h-c2-23-24 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231208/dq231... [2]: https://x.com/DavidSteadson/status/1733246631959507246 https://x.com/DavidSteadson/status/1733246631959507246

lucb1e 3y ago
I would indeed know by people disappearing: I know plenty of colleagues, family members, and friends, that a 1-in-10 statistic ought to manifest itself. It is impactful enough to do this type of bed care that I would also certainly hear it if one of those colleagues/family/friends had to take care of another person, and for a subset of those, where I'd hear if anyone in their extended circles had such a need. When MH17 was downed in 2014, carrying ~300 Dutch (on ~17 million, 0.002%, compare that to the percentages we're talking about here! That's 3.5 orders of magnitude), it seemed like everyone in the country knew someone who died; for me, it took a few weeks but it turned out that a friend vaguely knew someone who had died in the Russian attack. I also know some elderly people who died from covid, so those stats line up with experience to within error margins. The discrepancy probably lies in the "have had" part you mentioned. The majority of this group were never as severely ill as the person this thread is about, nor had any issues lasting this long. I know one person who said they got tired faster for a few months after contracting covid fairly early on, but it's not like their life was ruined (during that time, they partially stopped doing the sports that they enjoyed so that they had the energy at work and for household chores; afaik that was the main change it forced upon them beyond the first two weeks). That is not to say long covid, or severe long covid, doesn't happen or to downplay the impact on those to whom it does happen. Diana is an undeniable example. I'm just disagreeing with the "you've got at 15% chance of »a debilitating, fully disabling, long-term illness with no known cures or mitigations« per infection, and the odds worsen further with every reinfection" part. That severity level is not quite that likely