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This could be an opportunity for a startup. Adobe is going to lose what was previously their lowest tier of price discrimination: people using pirated copies.

by pg 15y ago

This could be an opportunity for a startup. Adobe is going to lose what was previously their lowest tier of price discrimination: people using pirated copies. I don't know if this is the case, but if a significant number of young illustrators (high school students say) currently start out using pirated copies of Photoshop, then there is an opportunity for someone else to capture all those users, and potentially keep them as they start to have money.

daeken 15y ago
While I'm sure there's still some (possibly even a lot -- it's a big market) opportunity there, Adobe is the 500lb gorilla in the space, and they're trying to capture the low end. It seems like the opportunities in this space for a startup just dropped significantly.
replax 15y ago
While I agree with you to some extend, there also was a student edition of PS for I think around 200bucks, which offered a reasonable alternative and was regularly subject to various discounts. I think the subscription model may be good for businesses, because they could always be on the latest version without having to go through a new approval process etc. However, for private users the barrier to entry will generally not be lowered I believe. At least not for the occasional amateur photographer/graphic designer/video guy. Many people buy PS once and are on e.g. version 'CS' and stay there for a rather long time. They might try the new thing out, but can always fall back because they "own" a copy and can use it as they please. People do not think as rational about it, the security to always have a fallback is worth a lot apparently.
citricsquid 15y ago
Are you suggesting people build alternatives to the Adobe suite? That's not something a startup can just do, there are alternatives that have been around for 5+ years and do not come close to the power of the Adobe suite, for anyone to compete they'll need to be better than all the current free alternatives which isn't something someone can do with 6 months of work. There is definitely room for someone to compete with Adobe, but whether anyone ever can is what matters, there's a reason Photoshop is so widely used when there are free alternatives.
- ssp 15y ago
  Is there an identifiable set of users who use only a subset of what Creative Suite provides? If so, supporting that subset better than CS could be a possibility.
  - reneherse 15y ago
    There are probably several identifiable subsets of users who make use of different parts of the Suite. Ostensibly, the idea of the CS was that you could mix and match just the pieces that suit the work flow of your discipline, whether that's photo finishing, graphic design, interactive design, or what have you. The reality is that this is one of the reasons Adobe's products are bloated, difficult to learn, and not truly integrated or consistent in their UI.
- shuzchen 15y ago
  I think it can still be done. Corel's options for vector and photo editors still get business, and quark express competed with indesign for a long time (assuming the reason it died was because they failed to keep innovating, not because indesign's position is insurmountable). There are yet tons of video editing software options to compete with Premiere. When I look at the free/open source solutions (gimp, scribus, inkscape), what I see are tools made by engineers. I think if you injected in a good measure of input from designers and usability experts it'd go a long way towards being solid competition.
  - jonah 15y ago
    QuarkXPress existed WAAAY before InDesign came out. It was the 800 pound gorilla in the publishing world for many years. InDesign was the insurgent and KILLED Quark in short order - primarily because Quark had become such a legacy piece of junk and couldn't keep up with the times or the much more modern InDesign.
    - philwelch 15y ago
      Before InDesign killed Quark, Quark killed PageMaker. Going on how long it's been, i think InDesign is due for a killing by now.
6ren 15y ago
They've turned a blind eye to piracy for years, not taking obvious steps to curb it. It's said to be for the reasons you state. Adobe has a solid track record over decades of knowing when to hold and when to let go, way back to the fonts for their first product, postscript. For flash, they adroitly opened it to foil open alternatives just as they started to get traction. Although the founders are gone, this is a essential issue across their stable of products - a little like J&J or Procter & Gamble or Nestle in this, they've demonstrated they know how to manage their franchises. They will continue to offer a shrink-wrapped version according to the article. Even if this wasn't needed for customers who still want it (perhaps jacking up the price, for offline access, security, privacy), it would be worth keeping just for the reasons you state (for piracy).
reneherse 15y ago
I think there might be more of an opportunity for software that facilitates what Adobe's graphics software is used for but was never designed for: The work flow from site mockup to finished graphics, fonts, markup, CSS, and JS. The reality is that the work flow of developing an interactive screen kind of still sucks. The process is basically ad hoc, tools are unintuitive and unoptimized. At one time, Fireworks may have been a step in the right direction, but it's the neglected stepchild of the Adobe line, and I anticipate its continual decline...
radley 15y ago
The Creative Cloud is optional at this point - customers can still pay for a regular upgrade. As such, a file of some sort would get out.
inkaudio 15y ago
Adobe offers their software at a much lower rate to high schools, collges and their students. The liberal arts classes with computers have Adobe suite. Web design teachers teach almost exclusively using Adobe software. If you are a high school student majoring in art or design in the U.S more than likely you will have no cost access to Adobe software at your school. This business model has serve Adobe well for years.
- lbotos 15y ago
  Yeah, Adobe pushes CS like a drug; They get you hooked in high school when it's free and make you pony up a nice chunk of change when you're hooked and need it to make your livelihood.
J3L2404 15y ago
I think you have that backwards. Using a pirated copy of Photoshop means it is part of their toolset and if they get hired by a legitmate company that is what they will want to use. By the way does YCombinator encourage the use of pirated software?
bigphishy 15y ago
They can always use cs5 and below..

by pg 15y ago

daeken 15y ago

While I'm sure there's still some (possibly even a lot -- it's a big market) opportunity there, Adobe is the 500lb gorilla in the space, and they're trying to capture the low end. It seems like the opportunities in this space for a startup just dropped significantly.

replax 15y ago

While I agree with you to some extend, there also was a student edition of PS for I think around 200bucks, which offered a reasonable alternative and was regularly subject to various discounts. I think the subscription model may be good for businesses, because they could always be on the latest version without having to go through a new approval process etc. However, for private users the barrier to entry will generally not be lowered I believe. At least not for the occasional amateur photographer/graphic designer/video guy. Many people buy PS once and are on e.g. version 'CS' and stay there for a rather long time. They might try the new thing out, but can always fall back because they "own" a copy and can use it as they please. People do not think as rational about it, the security to always have a fallback is worth a lot apparently.

citricsquid 15y ago

Are you suggesting people build alternatives to the Adobe suite? That's not something a startup can just do, there are alternatives that have been around for 5+ years and do not come close to the power of the Adobe suite, for anyone to compete they'll need to be better than all the current free alternatives which isn't something someone can do with 6 months of work. There is definitely room for someone to compete with Adobe, but whether anyone ever can is what matters, there's a reason Photoshop is so widely used when there are free alternatives.

ssp 15y ago
Is there an identifiable set of users who use only a subset of what Creative Suite provides? If so, supporting that subset better than CS could be a possibility.
- reneherse 15y ago
  There are probably several identifiable subsets of users who make use of different parts of the Suite. Ostensibly, the idea of the CS was that you could mix and match just the pieces that suit the work flow of your discipline, whether that's photo finishing, graphic design, interactive design, or what have you. The reality is that this is one of the reasons Adobe's products are bloated, difficult to learn, and not truly integrated or consistent in their UI.
shuzchen 15y ago
I think it can still be done. Corel's options for vector and photo editors still get business, and quark express competed with indesign for a long time (assuming the reason it died was because they failed to keep innovating, not because indesign's position is insurmountable). There are yet tons of video editing software options to compete with Premiere. When I look at the free/open source solutions (gimp, scribus, inkscape), what I see are tools made by engineers. I think if you injected in a good measure of input from designers and usability experts it'd go a long way towards being solid competition.
- jonah 15y ago
  QuarkXPress existed WAAAY before InDesign came out. It was the 800 pound gorilla in the publishing world for many years. InDesign was the insurgent and KILLED Quark in short order - primarily because Quark had become such a legacy piece of junk and couldn't keep up with the times or the much more modern InDesign.
  - philwelch 15y ago
    Before InDesign killed Quark, Quark killed PageMaker. Going on how long it's been, i think InDesign is due for a killing by now.

6ren 15y ago

They've turned a blind eye to piracy for years, not taking obvious steps to curb it. It's said to be for the reasons you state. Adobe has a solid track record over decades of knowing when to hold and when to let go, way back to the fonts for their first product, postscript. For flash, they adroitly opened it to foil open alternatives just as they started to get traction. Although the founders are gone, this is a essential issue across their stable of products - a little like J&J or Procter & Gamble or Nestle in this, they've demonstrated they know how to manage their franchises. They will continue to offer a shrink-wrapped version according to the article. Even if this wasn't needed for customers who still want it (perhaps jacking up the price, for offline access, security, privacy), it would be worth keeping just for the reasons you state (for piracy).

reneherse 15y ago

I think there might be more of an opportunity for software that facilitates what Adobe's graphics software is used for but was never designed for: The work flow from site mockup to finished graphics, fonts, markup, CSS, and JS. The reality is that the work flow of developing an interactive screen kind of still sucks. The process is basically ad hoc, tools are unintuitive and unoptimized. At one time, Fireworks may have been a step in the right direction, but it's the neglected stepchild of the Adobe line, and I anticipate its continual decline...

radley 15y ago

The Creative Cloud is optional at this point - customers can still pay for a regular upgrade. As such, a file of some sort would get out.

inkaudio 15y ago

Adobe offers their software at a much lower rate to high schools, collges and their students. The liberal arts classes with computers have Adobe suite. Web design teachers teach almost exclusively using Adobe software. If you are a high school student majoring in art or design in the U.S more than likely you will have no cost access to Adobe software at your school. This business model has serve Adobe well for years.

lbotos 15y ago
Yeah, Adobe pushes CS like a drug; They get you hooked in high school when it's free and make you pony up a nice chunk of change when you're hooked and need it to make your livelihood.

J3L2404 15y ago

I think you have that backwards. Using a pirated copy of Photoshop means it is part of their toolset and if they get hired by a legitmate company that is what they will want to use. By the way does YCombinator encourage the use of pirated software?

bigphishy 15y ago

They can always use cs5 and below..