5 ms·

Oh yeah? How many new reactors are they planning to build in the next twenty years? How many reach EOL in that time?

mpweiher 3y ago
Oh yeah? Oh yeah! 6 initially, 8 more after that. And they will extend the life of their existing fleet. "Macron calls for nuclear 'renaissance' to end the France's reliance on fossil fuels" https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/11/macron-calls-for-nuclear-renaissance-to-end-the-france-s-reliance-on-fossil-fuels https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/11/macron-calls-for-n... "At COP28, Countries Launch Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050, Recognizing the Key Role of Nuclear Energy in Reaching Net Zero" https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-declaration-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-2050-recognizing-key https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-decla...
- ViewTrick1002 3y ago
  Political grandstanding in the face of reality. > Schneider: Most of them are countries that are already operating nuclear power plants and have their own interest in trying to drag money support, most of which by the way would go into their current fleets. Take EDF [France’s state-owned utility company], for example. Through the French government, EDF is lobbying like mad to get support from the European Union—European taxpayers’ money—for its current fleet. It’s not even for new construction, because the French know that they won’t do much until 2040 anyway. There is also another aspect that is related and that illustrates how this pledge is completely, utterly unrealistic. > The pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity is not to be discussed first in terms of pros or cons, but from the point of view of feasibility. And from this point of view, just looking at the numbers, it’s impossible. We are talking about a target date of 2050, which is 27 years from now. In terms of nuclear development, that’s tomorrow morning. If we look at what happened in the industry over the past 20 years since 2003, there have been 103 new nuclear reactors starting operation. But there have been also 110 that closed operation up until mid 2023. Overall, it’s a slightly negative balance. It’s not even positive. Now if you consider the fact that 50 of those new reactors that were connected to the grid were in China alone and that China closed none, the world outside China experienced a negative balance of 57 reactors over the past 20 years. https://thebulletin.org/2023/12/nuclear-expert-mycle-schneider-on-the-cop28-pledge-to-triple-nuclear-energy-production-trumpism-enters-energy-policy/ https://thebulletin.org/2023/12/nuclear-expert-mycle-schneid... Meanwhile China is barely building nuclear anymore. China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
  - mpweiher 3y ago
    Yeah, "anti nuclear advocate Mycle Schneider pooh poohs most recent move towards more nuclear" probably isn't the grand revelation you make it out to be. The fact that most of the world under-invested in nuclear the last two decades or so is well-known. Extrapolating past trends linearly into the future is ... unwise. Particularly when there has been a significant policy shift, not in small part due to the disaster of the German "Energiewende". The Tragedy of Germany’s Energy Experiment https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/opinion/nuclear-power-germany.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/opinion/nuclear-power-ger... Germany’s Energiewende: A Disaster In The Making https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/germanys-energiewende-a-disaster-in-the-making/ https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/germanys-energiewende-a... Germany’s Energy Disaster 20 Years Later https://www.americanexperiment.org/germanys-energy-disaster-20-years-later/ https://www.americanexperiment.org/germanys-energy-disaster-... Germany’s Energy Crisis Dispels Several Myths https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2022/08/31/germanys-energy-crisis-dispels-several-myths/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2022/08/31/germany... "Much of its problem is self-inflicted and demonstrates the perils of populist but irrational energy policy." As for China: "As of February 2023, China has 55 plants with 57GW in operation, 22 under construction with 24 GW and more than 70 planned with 88GW. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China That is almost a tripling in both numbers and capacity. Because you need some reliable power.
- adrianN 3y ago
  France has nearly sixty reactors that all need to be replaced in the next thirty years…
  - mpweiher 3y ago
    Part of the "nuclear renaissance" is extending the life of the current fleet.
    - lispm 3y ago
      Which costs a lot of money. Which is also needed to build new ones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance "Since about 2001 the term nuclear renaissance has been used to refer to a possible nuclear power industry revival, driven by rising fossil fuel prices and new concerns about meeting greenhouse gas emission limits." Just like today. Since 2001 and now, mostly nothing happened which could be seen as an "nuclear renaissance" in France. Other than the EPR having extreme cost increases and extreme construction times. Why should the "nuclear renaissance" happen, this time? Given that the situation is only worse: engineers are aging, plants are aging, current nuclear technology/companies are not delivering, money is tight, ...
      - mpweiher 3y ago
        > Why should the "nuclear renaissance" happen, this time? Dunno...maybe because, as the article you cite mentions, the term was used in 2001 to refer to a hypothetical. " ... a nuclear renaissance is possible ... " So there was no "that time". Whereas "this time" it is not some hypothetical that could happen, but officially declared government policy. Macron presents France’s long-term ‘nuclear-heavy’ energy plan https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/macron-presents-frances-long-term-nuclear-heavy-energy-plan/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/macron-presents... Macron announces ‘nuclear renaissance’ — and papers over past mishaps https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-papers-nuclear-reset-energy-prices-france/ https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-papers-nucle... Macron pushes 'French nuclear renaissance' https://www.dw.com/en/macron-calls-for-french-nuclear-renaissance/a-60735347 https://www.dw.com/en/macron-calls-for-french-nuclear-renais... Did I write "declared" government policy? My bad: declared and enacted government policy: French Parliament passes law to accelerate construction of new nuclear reactors https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/17/french-government-passes-bill-to-accelerate-the-construction-of-new-nuclear-reactors_6026936_19.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/17/french-... French parliament votes nuclear plan with large majority https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-parliament-votes-nuclear-plan-with-large-majority-2023-03-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-parliament-votes... Note the "large majority". To be precise it was "approved with 402 votes in favour and 130 against." That's a whopping 75% of the vote. Doesn't seem particularly controversial. France's Assemblée Nationale adopts 'nuclear acceleration' bill on first reading https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/03/21/france-s-assemblee-nationale-adopts-nuclear-acceleration-bill-on-first-reading_6020219_7.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/03/21/france-s... So that's what's different. Hypothetical possibility vs. declared and enacted government policy. You're welcome.

Oh yeah? Oh yeah! 6 initially, 8 more after that. And they will extend the life of their existing fleet. "Macron calls for nuclear 'renaissance' to end the France's reliance on fossil fuels" https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/11/macron-calls-for-nuclear-renaissance-to-end-the-france-s-reliance-on-fossil-fuels https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/11/macron-calls-for-n... "At COP28, Countries Launch Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050, Recognizing the Key Role of Nuclear Energy in Reaching Net Zero" https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-declaration-triple-nuclear-energy-capacity-2050-recognizing-key https://www.energy.gov/articles/cop28-countries-launch-decla...

ViewTrick1002 3y ago
Political grandstanding in the face of reality. > Schneider: Most of them are countries that are already operating nuclear power plants and have their own interest in trying to drag money support, most of which by the way would go into their current fleets. Take EDF [France’s state-owned utility company], for example. Through the French government, EDF is lobbying like mad to get support from the European Union—European taxpayers’ money—for its current fleet. It’s not even for new construction, because the French know that they won’t do much until 2040 anyway. There is also another aspect that is related and that illustrates how this pledge is completely, utterly unrealistic. > The pledge to triple nuclear energy capacity is not to be discussed first in terms of pros or cons, but from the point of view of feasibility. And from this point of view, just looking at the numbers, it’s impossible. We are talking about a target date of 2050, which is 27 years from now. In terms of nuclear development, that’s tomorrow morning. If we look at what happened in the industry over the past 20 years since 2003, there have been 103 new nuclear reactors starting operation. But there have been also 110 that closed operation up until mid 2023. Overall, it’s a slightly negative balance. It’s not even positive. Now if you consider the fact that 50 of those new reactors that were connected to the grid were in China alone and that China closed none, the world outside China experienced a negative balance of 57 reactors over the past 20 years. https://thebulletin.org/2023/12/nuclear-expert-mycle-schneider-on-the-cop28-pledge-to-triple-nuclear-energy-production-trumpism-enters-energy-policy/ https://thebulletin.org/2023/12/nuclear-expert-mycle-schneid... Meanwhile China is barely building nuclear anymore. China added more wind and solar the past nine months than all of its nuclear reactors under construction will provide. Yes, that includes capacity factor. https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718 https://twitter.com/yo_ean/status/1718633487454904718
- mpweiher 3y ago
  Yeah, "anti nuclear advocate Mycle Schneider pooh poohs most recent move towards more nuclear" probably isn't the grand revelation you make it out to be. The fact that most of the world under-invested in nuclear the last two decades or so is well-known. Extrapolating past trends linearly into the future is ... unwise. Particularly when there has been a significant policy shift, not in small part due to the disaster of the German "Energiewende". The Tragedy of Germany’s Energy Experiment https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/opinion/nuclear-power-germany.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/opinion/nuclear-power-ger... Germany’s Energiewende: A Disaster In The Making https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/germanys-energiewende-a-disaster-in-the-making/ https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/germanys-energiewende-a... Germany’s Energy Disaster 20 Years Later https://www.americanexperiment.org/germanys-energy-disaster-20-years-later/ https://www.americanexperiment.org/germanys-energy-disaster-... Germany’s Energy Crisis Dispels Several Myths https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2022/08/31/germanys-energy-crisis-dispels-several-myths/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2022/08/31/germany... "Much of its problem is self-inflicted and demonstrates the perils of populist but irrational energy policy." As for China: "As of February 2023, China has 55 plants with 57GW in operation, 22 under construction with 24 GW and more than 70 planned with 88GW. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China That is almost a tripling in both numbers and capacity. Because you need some reliable power.
adrianN 3y ago
France has nearly sixty reactors that all need to be replaced in the next thirty years…
- mpweiher 3y ago
  Part of the "nuclear renaissance" is extending the life of the current fleet.
  - lispm 3y ago
    Which costs a lot of money. Which is also needed to build new ones. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance "Since about 2001 the term nuclear renaissance has been used to refer to a possible nuclear power industry revival, driven by rising fossil fuel prices and new concerns about meeting greenhouse gas emission limits." Just like today. Since 2001 and now, mostly nothing happened which could be seen as an "nuclear renaissance" in France. Other than the EPR having extreme cost increases and extreme construction times. Why should the "nuclear renaissance" happen, this time? Given that the situation is only worse: engineers are aging, plants are aging, current nuclear technology/companies are not delivering, money is tight, ...
    - mpweiher 3y ago
      > Why should the "nuclear renaissance" happen, this time? Dunno...maybe because, as the article you cite mentions, the term was used in 2001 to refer to a hypothetical. " ... a nuclear renaissance is possible ... " So there was no "that time". Whereas "this time" it is not some hypothetical that could happen, but officially declared government policy. Macron presents France’s long-term ‘nuclear-heavy’ energy plan https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/macron-presents-frances-long-term-nuclear-heavy-energy-plan/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/macron-presents... Macron announces ‘nuclear renaissance’ — and papers over past mishaps https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-papers-nuclear-reset-energy-prices-france/ https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-papers-nucle... Macron pushes 'French nuclear renaissance' https://www.dw.com/en/macron-calls-for-french-nuclear-renaissance/a-60735347 https://www.dw.com/en/macron-calls-for-french-nuclear-renais... Did I write "declared" government policy? My bad: declared and enacted government policy: French Parliament passes law to accelerate construction of new nuclear reactors https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/17/french-government-passes-bill-to-accelerate-the-construction-of-new-nuclear-reactors_6026936_19.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/17/french-... French parliament votes nuclear plan with large majority https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-parliament-votes-nuclear-plan-with-large-majority-2023-03-21/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-parliament-votes... Note the "large majority". To be precise it was "approved with 402 votes in favour and 130 against." That's a whopping 75% of the vote. Doesn't seem particularly controversial. France's Assemblée Nationale adopts 'nuclear acceleration' bill on first reading https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/03/21/france-s-assemblee-nationale-adopts-nuclear-acceleration-bill-on-first-reading_6020219_7.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/03/21/france-s... So that's what's different. Hypothetical possibility vs. declared and enacted government policy. You're welcome.