4 ms·

LLMs are a little different. The consumer buy in for language based interfaces is way less. ChatGPT is literally the fastest growing product of all time. It al

by dartos 3y ago

LLMs are a little different. The consumer buy in for language based interfaces is way less. ChatGPT is literally the fastest growing product of all time. It already generates a ton of value (more than VR ever did) LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. VR will never get there. Maybe mixed reality will, but I just don’t think most people will want screens on their eyes.

diggan 3y ago
> LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. Smartphones/tablets is another good example where the industry first were amazed by it, then industry started to shove it down everywhere even when it didn't make sense ("you can perform all your daily work tasks on smartphones/tables now!", "Now you can code on your iPad!") and eventually it went back to its optimized use cases, instead of being used for everything. Ah, and also, every proponent for these technologies when they are at the max of the hype, have a period of "Ah, but X is different than Y" while if you hang on for some years, you'll see the exact same cycle, even for X.
- dartos 3y ago
  I’m not seeing this cycle for phones. For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. People use their phones every single day for a variety of tasks. Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. I think LLMs will be similar. Unlike VR, which never hit that critical mass.
  - diggan 3y ago
    > For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. I was talking about entire categories of products, or industries/sectors/niches, rather than competitors within one industry. > Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. Yes, but at one point everything was trying to be an app on the smartphone, while now it's been dialed back instead. And they're here to stay, just like VR is here to stay, just within the niches it has found. Which may or may not expand in the future depending on capabilities/availability of experiences.
    - dartos 3y ago
      There’s some miscommunication here, sorry. I’m saying that smart phones are pervasive in the daily life of at least a billion people. I think that LLMs will eventually reach those numbers even after the hype phase ends. I think this based on the accessibility, utility, and ease of use of them. I think the growth of LLM products is a kind of indicator for this. I don’t think VR will ever get to that scale. I don’t think Vr will disappear, but it’ll never see the same scale of usage. I think this because of the physical and economic barriers to using VR and the fact that people generally don’t like having things strapped in front of their eyes. I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say.

by dartos 3y ago

diggan 3y ago

> LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. Smartphones/tablets is another good example where the industry first were amazed by it, then industry started to shove it down everywhere even when it didn't make sense ("you can perform all your daily work tasks on smartphones/tables now!", "Now you can code on your iPad!") and eventually it went back to its optimized use cases, instead of being used for everything. Ah, and also, every proponent for these technologies when they are at the max of the hype, have a period of "Ah, but X is different than Y" while if you hang on for some years, you'll see the exact same cycle, even for X.

dartos 3y ago
I’m not seeing this cycle for phones. For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. People use their phones every single day for a variety of tasks. Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. I think LLMs will be similar. Unlike VR, which never hit that critical mass.
- diggan 3y ago
  > For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. I was talking about entire categories of products, or industries/sectors/niches, rather than competitors within one industry. > Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. Yes, but at one point everything was trying to be an app on the smartphone, while now it's been dialed back instead. And they're here to stay, just like VR is here to stay, just within the niches it has found. Which may or may not expand in the future depending on capabilities/availability of experiences.
  - dartos 3y ago
    There’s some miscommunication here, sorry. I’m saying that smart phones are pervasive in the daily life of at least a billion people. I think that LLMs will eventually reach those numbers even after the hype phase ends. I think this based on the accessibility, utility, and ease of use of them. I think the growth of LLM products is a kind of indicator for this. I don’t think VR will ever get to that scale. I don’t think Vr will disappear, but it’ll never see the same scale of usage. I think this because of the physical and economic barriers to using VR and the fact that people generally don’t like having things strapped in front of their eyes. I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say.