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VR in general is dying a slow death. “AI” has taken its place as the next hot thing for the 2020s. VR never demonstrated enough value for the general public. Su

VR in general is dying a slow death. “AI” has taken its place as the next hot thing for the 2020s. VR never demonstrated enough value for the general public. Sure there are some highly specialized niches where it excels, but it’s never gonna be the next iPhone that everyone must have to function in the world. VR was the darling of the 2010s but it crashed and burned due to both physical limitation and lackluster technology. Microsoft throw their hat in the ring, and are now walking away as they see abysmal usage. I don’t even know if Apple could save it. Of course there is the age old conundrum of “are people not using it because the implementation sucks, or because the concept sucks”. PDAs being the poster child of this.

diggan 3y ago
Sounds like the typical cycle of new technology, that even LLMs will go through at one point. - Thing is invented and people think it's cool - Suddenly everyone wants this cool thing to be everywhere and do everything - People start to realize the limitations and cool thing gets used in niches where it actually makes sense. For VR, some people thought it'd replace gaming as a whole. Instead, it just made simulator games a lot better, but the rest is kind of gimmicky (said as someone who does enjoy VR a lot). Similar thing will happen with LLMs and also the next cool thing.
- dartos 3y ago
  LLMs are a little different. The consumer buy in for language based interfaces is way less. ChatGPT is literally the fastest growing product of all time. It already generates a ton of value (more than VR ever did) LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. VR will never get there. Maybe mixed reality will, but I just don’t think most people will want screens on their eyes.
  - diggan 3y ago
    > LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. Smartphones/tablets is another good example where the industry first were amazed by it, then industry started to shove it down everywhere even when it didn't make sense ("you can perform all your daily work tasks on smartphones/tables now!", "Now you can code on your iPad!") and eventually it went back to its optimized use cases, instead of being used for everything. Ah, and also, every proponent for these technologies when they are at the max of the hype, have a period of "Ah, but X is different than Y" while if you hang on for some years, you'll see the exact same cycle, even for X.
    - dartos 3y ago
      I’m not seeing this cycle for phones. For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. People use their phones every single day for a variety of tasks. Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. I think LLMs will be similar. Unlike VR, which never hit that critical mass.
      - diggan 3y ago
        > For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. I was talking about entire categories of products, or industries/sectors/niches, rather than competitors within one industry. > Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. Yes, but at one point everything was trying to be an app on the smartphone, while now it's been dialed back instead. And they're here to stay, just like VR is here to stay, just within the niches it has found. Which may or may not expand in the future depending on capabilities/availability of experiences.
        dartos 3y ago
        There’s some miscommunication here, sorry. I’m saying that smart phones are pervasive in the daily life of at least a billion people. I think that LLMs will eventually reach those numbers even after the hype phase ends. I think this based on the accessibility, utility, and ease of use of them. I think the growth of LLM products is a kind of indicator for this. I don’t think VR will ever get to that scale. I don’t think Vr will disappear, but it’ll never see the same scale of usage. I think this because of the physical and economic barriers to using VR and the fact that people generally don’t like having things strapped in front of their eyes. I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say.
- mypalmike 3y ago
  LLMs are a fad like cellphones are a fad.
  - diggan 3y ago
    Cool that I didn't say that either are fads then, so we agree :)
    - mypalmike 3y ago
      Ok, my lazy use of words. Substitute the word "fad" with "niche". VR found a couple of very specific niches where it brought value. LLMs are already starting to pervade society in both good and bad ways and will likely continue on that trajectory. The obvious uses are many, and non-obvious ones are emerging. If that's what you're saying (it does not appear you are), then we agree.
abhpro 3y ago
Sorry but VR will never die, its future potential is too enormous. It just has cycles of popularity and we might see a new surge with the Q3 being a very popular holiday gift this year.
- rwmj 3y ago
  > "Future potential .. enormous" With foreseeable technology VR is always going to need something that covers large parts of your head, covering at least your eyes and ears. This is fine in specific cases like gaming, but it seems very unlikely to be something everyone uses all the time.
- lm28469 3y ago
  No matter how you spin it it's still a gimmick and will probably stay a gimmick for a very long time. I was present at the HTC vive release in LA, none of the promises realized since then. It's the same hype cycle since the 70s or so Everyone I know who tried VR has 30 minutes of excitement and literally never mention it ever again.
  - diggan 3y ago
    > Everyone I know who tried VR has 30 minutes of excitement and literally never mention it ever again. Well, except of they like simulation games like flight simulators. Then they surely have already migrated to a VR setup and won't ever go back. Yes, I'm one of those.
    - flohofwoe 3y ago
      How long do you typically spend under the goggles? Back when I played Elite Dangerous in VR, 4..5hr sessions were completely exhausting. I since switched back to traditional head tracking for flight simming (although I have to admit that at least for helicopter landings the spatial awareness and depth perception in VR is extremely useful - but it's just too damn exhausting).
      - treprinum 3y ago
29athrowaway 3y ago
The goal of VR is not VR: - Ads that you cannot look away from - Ads everywhere you look - Tracking face muscle as you see ads, to build a model of your reactions and target you more aggressively - Having more digital interactions that can be spied on - Having more metadata about those interactions - Seeing how you react to objects in digital environments and then serving you ads of those objects As usual, the goals are spying and advertising.
PaulHoule 3y ago
I’ve got a Meta Quest 3 and it is great. I am playing the pack-in game Asgard’s Wrath 2 and it is the first AAA game I’ve seen in VR and succeeds in every way as a single player game. It’s the most interesting thing this year in the game business in the sense that there is nothing special about Xbox or Playstation right now, the Nintendo Switch is ancient, they don’t plan to upgrade the Steam Deck anytime soon, etc. Outside of that, I am interested in experiences that are more like a theme park, say 3-d models of boulders on Mars inside a natural history museum and it is not hard to make that kind of thing with A-frame.
namlem 3y ago
Seems foolish to make such predictions this close to the release of the Apple Vision Pro. Maybe you are right, but also maybe we will get that paradigm shift people have been waiting for.
- rchaud 3y ago
  Apple themselves haven't said a word about Vision Pro since the demo event. If $300 VR headsets can't make a dent in the public consciousness, a $3500 bauble from Apple won't do it either. I remember all the talk about iPad Pro's AR-capable cameras. Do you know a anybody who actually uses an iPad for that?

diggan 3y ago

Sounds like the typical cycle of new technology, that even LLMs will go through at one point. - Thing is invented and people think it's cool - Suddenly everyone wants this cool thing to be everywhere and do everything - People start to realize the limitations and cool thing gets used in niches where it actually makes sense. For VR, some people thought it'd replace gaming as a whole. Instead, it just made simulator games a lot better, but the rest is kind of gimmicky (said as someone who does enjoy VR a lot). Similar thing will happen with LLMs and also the next cool thing.

dartos 3y ago
LLMs are a little different. The consumer buy in for language based interfaces is way less. ChatGPT is literally the fastest growing product of all time. It already generates a ton of value (more than VR ever did) LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. VR will never get there. Maybe mixed reality will, but I just don’t think most people will want screens on their eyes.
- diggan 3y ago
  > LLMs are more likely to become technology that everyone uses every single day (like phones.) even after it loses its hype. Smartphones/tablets is another good example where the industry first were amazed by it, then industry started to shove it down everywhere even when it didn't make sense ("you can perform all your daily work tasks on smartphones/tables now!", "Now you can code on your iPad!") and eventually it went back to its optimized use cases, instead of being used for everything. Ah, and also, every proponent for these technologies when they are at the max of the hype, have a period of "Ah, but X is different than Y" while if you hang on for some years, you'll see the exact same cycle, even for X.
  - dartos 3y ago
    I’m not seeing this cycle for phones. For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. People use their phones every single day for a variety of tasks. Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. I think LLMs will be similar. Unlike VR, which never hit that critical mass.
    - diggan 3y ago
      > For example.The most popular web browser, by far, is chrome from android. (according to caniuse) This was not the case before the iPhone. Accessing the internet on the go is a game changing feature. I was talking about entire categories of products, or industries/sectors/niches, rather than competitors within one industry. > Phones had their hype phase (the whole there’s an app for that phase), but obviously they’re here to stay. Yes, but at one point everything was trying to be an app on the smartphone, while now it's been dialed back instead. And they're here to stay, just like VR is here to stay, just within the niches it has found. Which may or may not expand in the future depending on capabilities/availability of experiences.
      - dartos 3y ago
        There’s some miscommunication here, sorry. I’m saying that smart phones are pervasive in the daily life of at least a billion people. I think that LLMs will eventually reach those numbers even after the hype phase ends. I think this based on the accessibility, utility, and ease of use of them. I think the growth of LLM products is a kind of indicator for this. I don’t think VR will ever get to that scale. I don’t think Vr will disappear, but it’ll never see the same scale of usage. I think this because of the physical and economic barriers to using VR and the fact that people generally don’t like having things strapped in front of their eyes. I’m not really sure what you’re trying to say.
mypalmike 3y ago
LLMs are a fad like cellphones are a fad.
- diggan 3y ago
  Cool that I didn't say that either are fads then, so we agree :)
  - mypalmike 3y ago
    Ok, my lazy use of words. Substitute the word "fad" with "niche". VR found a couple of very specific niches where it brought value. LLMs are already starting to pervade society in both good and bad ways and will likely continue on that trajectory. The obvious uses are many, and non-obvious ones are emerging. If that's what you're saying (it does not appear you are), then we agree.

abhpro 3y ago

Sorry but VR will never die, its future potential is too enormous. It just has cycles of popularity and we might see a new surge with the Q3 being a very popular holiday gift this year.

rwmj 3y ago
> "Future potential .. enormous" With foreseeable technology VR is always going to need something that covers large parts of your head, covering at least your eyes and ears. This is fine in specific cases like gaming, but it seems very unlikely to be something everyone uses all the time.
lm28469 3y ago
No matter how you spin it it's still a gimmick and will probably stay a gimmick for a very long time. I was present at the HTC vive release in LA, none of the promises realized since then. It's the same hype cycle since the 70s or so Everyone I know who tried VR has 30 minutes of excitement and literally never mention it ever again.
- diggan 3y ago
  > Everyone I know who tried VR has 30 minutes of excitement and literally never mention it ever again. Well, except of they like simulation games like flight simulators. Then they surely have already migrated to a VR setup and won't ever go back. Yes, I'm one of those.
  - flohofwoe 3y ago
    How long do you typically spend under the goggles? Back when I played Elite Dangerous in VR, 4..5hr sessions were completely exhausting. I since switched back to traditional head tracking for flight simming (although I have to admit that at least for helicopter landings the spatial awareness and depth perception in VR is extremely useful - but it's just too damn exhausting).
    - treprinum 3y ago

29athrowaway 3y ago

The goal of VR is not VR: - Ads that you cannot look away from - Ads everywhere you look - Tracking face muscle as you see ads, to build a model of your reactions and target you more aggressively - Having more digital interactions that can be spied on - Having more metadata about those interactions - Seeing how you react to objects in digital environments and then serving you ads of those objects As usual, the goals are spying and advertising.

PaulHoule 3y ago

I’ve got a Meta Quest 3 and it is great. I am playing the pack-in game Asgard’s Wrath 2 and it is the first AAA game I’ve seen in VR and succeeds in every way as a single player game. It’s the most interesting thing this year in the game business in the sense that there is nothing special about Xbox or Playstation right now, the Nintendo Switch is ancient, they don’t plan to upgrade the Steam Deck anytime soon, etc. Outside of that, I am interested in experiences that are more like a theme park, say 3-d models of boulders on Mars inside a natural history museum and it is not hard to make that kind of thing with A-frame.

namlem 3y ago

Seems foolish to make such predictions this close to the release of the Apple Vision Pro. Maybe you are right, but also maybe we will get that paradigm shift people have been waiting for.

rchaud 3y ago
Apple themselves haven't said a word about Vision Pro since the demo event. If $300 VR headsets can't make a dent in the public consciousness, a $3500 bauble from Apple won't do it either. I remember all the talk about iPad Pro's AR-capable cameras. Do you know a anybody who actually uses an iPad for that?