3 ms·
How accurately could we predict when betelgeuse will go? What are the CIs?
by runsWphotons 3y ago
How accurately could we predict when betelgeuse will go? What are the CIs?
- geuis 3y agoPart of the problem is that direct observations of supernovas is small and indirect. We have small numbers of recorded occurrences to judge from.
- ianburrell 3y agoAlso, we don’t have observations of the stars before supernova. Most are in other galaxies so don’t even see the star. Betelgeuse is first case where we can observe late stage star closely.
- MengerSponge 3y agoLiterally any moment in the next 10000 years. The probability distribution (afaict) is pretty flat, and either 1000, 10000, or 1000000 years long.