5 ms·

I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rat

by verteu 3y ago

I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate or https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/query https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (not per-capita) Much like inflation, people aren't great at estimating the precise year-over-year change, but the last 5 or 10 years shows some real reasons for concern.

crazygringo 3y ago
You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.
- zzleeper 3y ago
  In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane
  - crazygringo 3y ago
    The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point. Here is an accurate graph: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels. Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ Which would be back to pre-2020 levels.
    - verteu 3y ago
      Thx -- your graph is the better one. There's still a clear inflection point at 2014.
  - defrost 3y ago
    > after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. The IMGUR link includes the text: Due to the full transition to NIRBS and the lack of data for agencies that are not fully transitioned, the 2021 data year cannot be added to the 5-, 10- or 20- year trend presentations that are based in traditional methodologies used That's a giant flashing warning sign to data nerds everywhere that some change in the gathering | reporting of data took place exactly right when things "exploded". The question remains, did crime (actual homicide numbers) really explode or did national reporting of homicide numbers suddenly improve | include backlogs | etc? > We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels .. These are absolute numbers .. and the US population has grown in 25 years, given the change in national reporting the per capita homicides rates may be more stable than the graph indicates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Incident-Based_Reporting_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Incident-Based_Report...
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

by verteu 3y ago

crazygringo 3y ago

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

zzleeper 3y ago
In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane
- crazygringo 3y ago
  The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point. Here is an accurate graph: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels. Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ Which would be back to pre-2020 levels.
  - verteu 3y ago
    Thx -- your graph is the better one. There's still a clear inflection point at 2014.
- defrost 3y ago
  > after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. The IMGUR link includes the text: Due to the full transition to NIRBS and the lack of data for agencies that are not fully transitioned, the 2021 data year cannot be added to the 5-, 10- or 20- year trend presentations that are based in traditional methodologies used That's a giant flashing warning sign to data nerds everywhere that some change in the gathering | reporting of data took place exactly right when things "exploded". The question remains, did crime (actual homicide numbers) really explode or did national reporting of homicide numbers suddenly improve | include backlogs | etc? > We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels .. These are absolute numbers .. and the US population has grown in 25 years, given the change in national reporting the per capita homicides rates may be more stable than the graph indicates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Incident-Based_Reporting_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Incident-Based_Report...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]