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I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incent
by hx8 3y ago
I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now.
* Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers.
* Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers.
* This has a reinforcing cycle where number nudgers are promoted and in turn promote other number nudgers until leadership is saturated. More creative accounting practices are encouraged as the environment becomes more competitive.
* Many District Attorney's are happy to prosecute lesser charges that are easier to convict on instead of more serious charges that more accurately reflect the reality of what happened.
- ethanbond 3y agoWhat’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?
- hx8 3y agoIt describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.
- jeremyjh 3y agoAll of those incentives were in play 50 years ago. You may as well say you just don't like statistics that you disagree with.
- hx8 3y agoAs discussed in the bullet points, those incentives create a sort of natural selection which changes how the statistics are reported over time. It's not like we are measuring length or temperature. The data has a degree of human subjectivity when being recorded. It seems normal for that subjectivity to shift over time, especially when we are taking about different humans over timespans of decades.
- Izkata 3y agoThings like theft under $950 being classified as a misdemeanor in California (happened in 2021 IIRC), which makes it far less likely the cops will do anything about it, de-facto legalizing theft. This isn't the only place it's happened, it's just the one that got the most visibility.
- ethanbond 3y agoThat happened in 2014. So recent-ish, but people started being really loud about it in 2021 as part of the same non-data-backed outrage.
- HonestOp001 3y agoIt is a knock on effect. As decency decays and criminals figure out what the new rules are it gets amplified.
- Spivak 3y agoThe perverse incentives you're describing were just the same 15 years ago. And these are national stats so a few DAs in very blue cities not prosecuting minor offenses aren't big enough to have that much of an impact.