3 ms·

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

ajross 3y ago
Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.
  - runsWphotons 3y ago
    Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.
    - ajross 3y ago
      Why 2014 and 2022 and not 1991 and 2022? Or 2020 and 2022? Other than one confirms your prior and the other two refute it? And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).
crazygringo 3y ago
Here are the actual stats: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data. Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's. And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  What I said is true, and what the op said is false and the stats you posted show this. What is actually misleading is saying something outright false like the OP. The homicide rate is higher than it has been since the mid 90s. People are worked up about crime increases because they have lived through the past 4 years and feel the tension.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

ajross 3y ago

Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.

runsWphotons 3y ago
That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Why 2014 and 2022 and not 1991 and 2022? Or 2020 and 2022? Other than one confirms your prior and the other two refute it? And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).

crazygringo 3y ago

Here are the actual stats: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data. Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's. And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/

runsWphotons 3y ago
What I said is true, and what the op said is false and the stats you posted show this. What is actually misleading is saying something outright false like the OP. The homicide rate is higher than it has been since the mid 90s. People are worked up about crime increases because they have lived through the past 4 years and feel the tension.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]