5 ms·

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behav

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully feel like crime is increasing because they see all this happening around them. Alas, the media and politicians say 'nothing is happening' because now prostitution, theft, and drugs are decriminalized. I am only in my mid 30s and have lived in California my entire life and I've never seen more open drug use, more theft/shoplifting, and prostitution is now more flagrant than it's ever been. Things really seem to accelerate into a free fall after prop 47 was passed.

rdevsrex 3y ago
Especially in cities like SF.
addicted 3y ago
I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.
- scotty79 3y ago
  It would be reassuring if the proportion of murder to other, more common and visible crime was constant. But it's not. You may still get decrease in murders while having 10 fold increase in theft.
- 10u152 3y ago
  What about deaths classified as suicide/accidental?
- addicted 3y ago
  Besides that throughout the 2000s and 2010s when crime hit historic lows in the US Americans continued to say crime was increasing. We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...
  - uoaei 3y ago
    What do overdoses have to do with crime?
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
    - runsWphotons 3y ago
      That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.
      - runsWphotons 3y ago
        Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.
        ajross 3y ago
        Why 2014 and 2022 and not 1991 and 2022? Or 2020 and 2022? Other than one confirms your prior and the other two refute it? And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).
- User23 3y ago
  Homicides are decreasing exactly the same way inflation is decreasing. Down from recent highs but still quite elevated.
- nkurz 3y ago
  1) It's great that homicides are decreasing. But while homicides are one way of measuring crime, there are others. I think many people are saying that the divergence is increasing between homicides and other crimes. Would you agree with the GP that "crime" can be increasing even if homicides are decreasing? 2) While it's rare, there are some well documented cases where "dead bodies" get hidden in the US by unscrupulous police trying to look better in statistics. Here's Chicago from a decade ago: https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-statistics/chicago-crime-rates/ https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-st...
- forrestthewoods 3y ago
  I live in Seattle. We just set a new record for homicides. I think an all-time high. Also, I don’t think homicides is necessarily that accurate a metric. It’s immune to many things. But it isn’t immune to advances in trauma treatment. I’ve always wondered if cell phones reduced homicides by reducing response times. I’d love to know shooting victim statistics. But that’s not as complete and comprehensive as homicide counts.
- Ferret7446 3y ago
  Yes, that's great and all, but that doesn't change the fact that all of the car windows are smashed, and you regularly see people, sometimes the same people, smashing the windows in person. Quoth Jeff Bezos: "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."
sfblah 3y ago
It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way. Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes? Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017. Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.
- User23 3y ago
  Recently in 2020 homicides peaked in the aftermath of the “mostly peaceful protests” and the subsequent law officer retreat to the donut shop. Traffic deaths also surged due to depolicing. It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!
- ahazred8ta 3y ago
  In round numbers, US homicides per 100,000 were about 10 in the 80s-90s, 5 before the pandemic, and back down to 6.3 in 2022. -- https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate

rdevsrex 3y ago

Especially in cities like SF.

addicted 3y ago

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

scotty79 3y ago
It would be reassuring if the proportion of murder to other, more common and visible crime was constant. But it's not. You may still get decrease in murders while having 10 fold increase in theft.
10u152 3y ago
What about deaths classified as suicide/accidental?
addicted 3y ago
Besides that throughout the 2000s and 2010s when crime hit historic lows in the US Americans continued to say crime was increasing. We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.
diogenescynic 3y ago
What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...
- uoaei 3y ago
  What do overdoses have to do with crime?
runsWphotons 3y ago
No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.
- ajross 3y ago
  Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
  - runsWphotons 3y ago
    That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.
    - runsWphotons 3y ago
      Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.
      - ajross 3y ago
        Why 2014 and 2022 and not 1991 and 2022? Or 2020 and 2022? Other than one confirms your prior and the other two refute it? And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).
User23 3y ago
Homicides are decreasing exactly the same way inflation is decreasing. Down from recent highs but still quite elevated.
nkurz 3y ago
1) It's great that homicides are decreasing. But while homicides are one way of measuring crime, there are others. I think many people are saying that the divergence is increasing between homicides and other crimes. Would you agree with the GP that "crime" can be increasing even if homicides are decreasing? 2) While it's rare, there are some well documented cases where "dead bodies" get hidden in the US by unscrupulous police trying to look better in statistics. Here's Chicago from a decade ago: https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-statistics/chicago-crime-rates/ https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-st...
forrestthewoods 3y ago
I live in Seattle. We just set a new record for homicides. I think an all-time high. Also, I don’t think homicides is necessarily that accurate a metric. It’s immune to many things. But it isn’t immune to advances in trauma treatment. I’ve always wondered if cell phones reduced homicides by reducing response times. I’d love to know shooting victim statistics. But that’s not as complete and comprehensive as homicide counts.
Ferret7446 3y ago
Yes, that's great and all, but that doesn't change the fact that all of the car windows are smashed, and you regularly see people, sometimes the same people, smashing the windows in person. Quoth Jeff Bezos: "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."

sfblah 3y ago

It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way. Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes? Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017. Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.

User23 3y ago
Recently in 2020 homicides peaked in the aftermath of the “mostly peaceful protests” and the subsequent law officer retreat to the donut shop. Traffic deaths also surged due to depolicing. It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!
ahazred8ta 3y ago
In round numbers, US homicides per 100,000 were about 10 in the 80s-90s, 5 before the pandemic, and back down to 6.3 in 2022. -- https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate