7 ms·

Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

56 points by ZunarJ5 3y ago

Flux159 3y ago
This would make sense since the Gallup survey is based on people's perceptions based on social & traditional media that they see regularly. People remember notable events or shocking things, no one remembers the regular days where everything just went as normal - and the media doesn't cover such things since they are looking to grab attention with headlines. The article mentions this at the end as outlier incidents, but just giving people the overall statistics may not help change their mind either because of what they perceive from other media sources.
diogenescynic 3y ago
"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully feel like crime is increasing because they see all this happening around them. Alas, the media and politicians say 'nothing is happening' because now prostitution, theft, and drugs are decriminalized. I am only in my mid 30s and have lived in California my entire life and I've never seen more open drug use, more theft/shoplifting, and prostitution is now more flagrant than it's ever been. Things really seem to accelerate into a free fall after prop 47 was passed.
- rdevsrex 3y ago
  Especially in cities like SF.
- addicted 3y ago
  I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.
  - scotty79 3y ago
    It would be reassuring if the proportion of murder to other, more common and visible crime was constant. But it's not. You may still get decrease in murders while having 10 fold increase in theft.
  - 10u152 3y ago
    What about deaths classified as suicide/accidental?
  - addicted 3y ago
    Besides that throughout the 2000s and 2010s when crime hit historic lows in the US Americans continued to say crime was increasing. We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.
  - diogenescynic 3y ago
    What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...
    - uoaei 3y ago
      What do overdoses have to do with crime?
  - runsWphotons 3y ago
    No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.
    - ajross 3y ago
      Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
- sfblah 3y ago
  It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way. Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes? Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017. Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.
  - User23 3y ago
    Recently in 2020 homicides peaked in the aftermath of the “mostly peaceful protests” and the subsequent law officer retreat to the donut shop. Traffic deaths also surged due to depolicing. It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!
  - ahazred8ta 3y ago
    In round numbers, US homicides per 100,000 were about 10 in the 80s-90s, 5 before the pandemic, and back down to 6.3 in 2022. -- https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate
kbar13 3y ago
anger and "concern" about rising crime is a great way to pump the impressions numbers. i love these "research shows" crime articles. their research methodology is hilarious: https://www.foxnews.com/us/most-unsafe-cities-holiday-season-research-shows https://www.foxnews.com/us/most-unsafe-cities-holiday-season... > Rockville, Maryland, ranked No. 1 for having the largest percentage of Airbnb properties without security cameras isn't that... a good thing? i feel like not having security cameras usually means you don't feel like you need to have an eye on everything... and privacy at an airbnb is quite nice. might find a reason to visit rockville! > Newark, Delaware, ranked No. 1 for Google searches related to holiday security i feel like the only relation to actual safety here is the word "security" in this sentence.
greatpostman 3y ago
For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.
- bavent 3y ago
  You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?
  - greatpostman 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - DanTheManPR 3y ago
    Here's an anecdote: I haven't been the victim of any type of crime for the last 15 years, whereas I had multiple break-ins and near violent encounters in the 00s and 90s. My neighborhood and city (I live in Northeast Minneapolis) feels dramatically safer than it did when I was younger. My relatives in the burbs think it's some sort of crime infested hellhole. I'm inclined to think that a actually, crime IS dropping and that people who think that it isn't watching and reading a lot of media that is filling their heads with nonsense.
  - matrix87 3y ago
    No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes common sense is more trustworthy And I don't think flagging is an appropriate response to gp either, there's definitely room to discuss that type of perspective
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
pasttense01 3y ago
There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.
- nadermx 3y ago
  There also seems to be the chance that by calling the police you yourself get shot by them.
- avs733 3y ago
  Can you cite this growing consensus? I’m agnostic whether you are right or wrong but one side brings data and you just have an anecdote.
  - geepytee 3y ago
    Don't we all have a similar anecdote to tell?
- mccrory 3y ago
  Have a friend who is in security, when they have to cuff someone and call 911, they often get sent to voicemail. 10 minutes later 911 calls back and if the issue isn’t live anymore they refuse to send anyone. Had another incident personally where the police never came. Several friends have had similar experience, while not scientific it indicates there is at least a local problem. The other cities I look at seem to have similar issues in the news. There is no way crime is getting better right now.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  Is it growing? That was the consensus for as long as I remember. Great scene about it in the big lebowski.
- deleted 3y ago
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deleted 3y ago
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softwaredoug 3y ago
So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media. I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening. https://vimeo.com/39131010 https://vimeo.com/39131010 Even without any nefarious motivations, simple survivorship bias will mean any form of media will report on the exceptions to the rule, not the rule itself. Don't substitute media input for first hand knowledge. Since Covid+WfH, I've felt this acutely and had to remind myself online is not real life.
- 10111001 3y ago
  > So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media. > I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening. You might have a point, but: 1. A citation to a partisan propagandist shouldn't convince anyone. 2. The segment seems to rest on the fallacious assumption that dangerous areas can never be pleasant and will continuously have something "crazy" happening. I mean, there are literal warzones where you could probably manage to film a five minute stroll through some pleasant meadow (due to lulls in the fighting). I think the truth is that it's just hard to get a true impression of a place without actually spending a lot of time there.
fallingknife 3y ago
I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for stolen goods on the streets? Yeah, I'm sure crime is down. That sounds right.
- jliptzin 3y ago
  Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?
  - spinach 3y ago
    Because Walmart also pays taxes.
    - sgarland 3y ago
      Do they, though?
    - jliptzin 3y ago
      There is no way Walmart pays more per sq foot in local taxes than I do.
  - scarface_74 3y ago
    Because those businesses also pay taxes and probably more than you do?
    - jliptzin 3y ago
      Are you sure that's true? https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-chinese-jv-to-avoid-us-tax https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-... https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/walmart-tax-every-american-taxpayer-pays/100188002/ https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/wa... https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-One-Pager-orange-header.pdf https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-O...
mcmoor 3y ago
Fell back to pre pandemic levels? I guess people are right that the last few years (covid era) have quite concerning crime rates.
- deleted 3y ago
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- o11c 3y ago
  I mean, "lowest level since 1961" is technically pre-pandemic, sure.
hx8 3y ago
I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers. * Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers. * This has a reinforcing cycle where number nudgers are promoted and in turn promote other number nudgers until leadership is saturated. More creative accounting practices are encouraged as the environment becomes more competitive. * Many District Attorney's are happy to prosecute lesser charges that are easier to convict on instead of more serious charges that more accurately reflect the reality of what happened.
- ethanbond 3y ago
  What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?
  - hx8 3y ago
    It describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.
    - jeremyjh 3y ago
      All of those incentives were in play 50 years ago. You may as well say you just don't like statistics that you disagree with.
      - hx8 3y ago
        As discussed in the bullet points, those incentives create a sort of natural selection which changes how the statistics are reported over time. It's not like we are measuring length or temperature. The data has a degree of human subjectivity when being recorded. It seems normal for that subjectivity to shift over time, especially when we are taking about different humans over timespans of decades.
  - 3y ago
grumple 3y ago
Nobody cares that it dropped in 2023. We care that it's worse than a decade ago, which it is. We hit a local minimum of 4.4 murders per 100k in 2014. It was 6.3 in 2022. That's a big difference. Property crime goes unreported. It's not worth the trouble. I've had a dozen packages stolen, for example. My apartment building had 30 bikes stolen and hundreds more packages stolen. None of these will show up in the statistics. I have friends that have been carjacked or witnessed carjacking. Carjacking numbers are way up in my city compared to 10 years ago. Murders hit a low of 246 for us in 2013. The last 3 years were 499, 562, and 516, and they now cook the books by not counting suspicious deaths. We're down this year, which is great, but the past 5 years have been bloody as hell. Major crimes dropping 8% from recent local maxima is not an achievement and doesn't mean people's perceptions of rising crime are incorrect. The past single year's delta alone is just not super relevant.
verteu 3y ago
I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate or https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/query https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (not per-capita) Much like inflation, people aren't great at estimating the precise year-over-year change, but the last 5 or 10 years shows some real reasons for concern.
- crazygringo 3y ago
  You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.
  - zzleeper 3y ago
    In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane
    - crazygringo 3y ago
      The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point. Here is an accurate graph: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels. Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ Which would be back to pre-2020 levels.
      - verteu 3y ago
        Thx -- your graph is the better one. There's still a clear inflection point at 2014.
adolph 3y ago
A US crime rate is as useful to individual conceptions of potential victimization as US GDP is to employment.
SantalBlush 3y ago
I've noticed a general pattern on HN, and I think this thread exemplifies it: If the research confirms someone's personal experience, then they don't question the research methodology. On the other hand, if the research contradicts their experience, they look deeper into the methodology to find flaws in it. It's just a more intellectual form of confirmation bias.
- hn_go_brrrrr 3y ago
  This is a general human pattern and not at all confined to HN.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  Not all research is equal and it's often heavily biased by who is funding and promoting it. If research doesn't validate some interest groups talking point, we don't even hear about it.
matrix87 3y ago
The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statistically sound", I could care less. Crime is decreasing? Okay, I guess it isn't decreasing quickly enough
- crazygringo 3y ago
  No. The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually. Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics. But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people. And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.
  - deleted 3y ago
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  - drewcoo 3y ago
    > Factually. Whose facts? Who do you trust and is it a source I do, too? What's included their data and what isn't? How recent is the data they're using? If I go by the FBI a few months ago, crime is down. But the data is only up through 2022, so someone using another source will say the FBI info is inaccurate. https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-crime-in-the-nation-statistics https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-cr... > the truth still matters Maybe they matter, but there are multiple truths. > Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people Maybe those people don't realize that even science is our best understanding given current data. Or that our "truths" are often hazy statistical models. A sure recipe for falsehood is seeking simple answers.
    - crazygringo 3y ago
      What are you arguing? That we're can't know anything ever? That's not very useful in any kind of practical sense. Figuring out what's going on from statistics isn't that hard if you understand how those statistics are being collected. But they sure beat whatever you, a single person, happens to see with your own eyes. Your personal experience is an almost infinitesimally small random slice. It's just not statistically significant. Statistics may always have error bars, but the errors bars around your personal sampling of one will always be incomparably larger.
zzleeper 3y ago
Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically? EG: "D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year." https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/dc-homicide-rate-20-year-high/65-dfd8cad1-e1cf-4d39-84f2-ca4b7109af99 https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/dc-homicide-rate-20... https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/10/03/dc-crime-by-neighborhood-2023 https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/10/03/dc-crim...
- smt88 3y ago
  Homicide is a tiny fraction of all crime, and the numbers of homicides are low enough in large US cities that small changes can lead to fairly large percentages.
  - zzleeper 3y ago
    Every crime category is spiking in DC. EG: petty crime: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/washington-dc-takes-crown-petty-crime-capital-america https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/washington-dc-... carjacking: https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/whats-driving-dcs-carjacking-numbers-expert-suggests-perceived-lack-of-consequences/3499873/ https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/whats-driving-d...
- nerdponx 3y ago
  I was wondering about this too. Maybe the geographical distribution of crime is changing, even if overall there is less of it per capita.
deleted 3y ago
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ryukoposting 3y ago
They probably think it's rising because it rose substantially in 2020/21 and is nowhere close to returning to the typical levels of the 20 years prior. St Louis should have all-time low total homicides, it's experiencing terminal population collapse. There are American suburbs similar in population to St Louis. So much of this article is just contrarian clickbait. On the other hand, Detroit feels significantly safer than it did 10 years ago. It's still desperately poor, but it's a pleasant place to visit now. It's pretty, and it has clung onto its culture and history. For better and worse, these things tend to come back around. That doesn't happen if we pretend nothing is wrong. I think "news" entertainment has painted this situation as a return to '70s-'80s violence, and that's not even close to reality. I'm not fleeing to the burbs, or going outside with a bulletproof vest. There's a problem, but it's solvable, and it won't take decades to fix.
xnx 3y ago
Crime is such an immensely local and personal phenomenon. Statistics are abstract until you're the one getting carjacked by 5 guys or getting punched in the face during a home burglary.
sam_s3piol 3y ago
I have a some personal anecdotes from the past few years living in Los Angeles that might help explain the discrepancy between people's perceptions and the crime data. A couple years ago two cars pulled up in front of the house across the street from mine, four people got out and started trying to break in by throwing a rock through the front window. The noise was loud enough to alert myself and a couple other neighbors on the street who came out to see the burglars fleeing back to their cars after the homeowner scared them away with a gun. I called 911 and waited on hold for 2 hours for someone to answer only to tell me that the only the people who had their house broken into could file a report and to have them call back. When I went to tell this to the neighbor it turned out that he did try to report it but gave up after waiting on hold for an hour. In the end this home break in was never reported and did not make it into the crime data. Last year, living in a different part of Los Angeles, I woke up at 4am to the sound of people yelling and bottles breaking outside. There was a group of very noticeably drunk people sitting on the hoods of their cars drinking in the street. I watched them long enough to determine they were all wasted, at least one of them would be driving, and if any of them drove they'd be a danger to themselves and others. Again I called 911, waited a half hour, and was told they'd dispatch someone. A half hour later they all got into separate cars and did indeed drive away, leaving empty beer bottles next to where their cars had been. It's hard to know if LAPD actually came to check because this all happened on the street adjacent to the back gate of the Hollywood police department and around 6am it gets a lot of traffic from police cars heading back to the station at the end of the shift. As far as I can tell this crime was never reported and did not get included in the data. Also within the last year, on the same street adjacent to the police station, a homeless man seemingly in a manic episode was vandalizing parked cars while screaming about killing people of a certain protected group. This time I called 911, waited 20 minutes and told the operator what I saw. Because the homeless man had wandered to a different street and I couldn't see him anymore I was told it's not an ongoing crime and to call the LAPD non-emergency line so they can take the report. I called the non-emergency line and reached their voicemail. This is another crime that wasn't reported and didn't get included in the data. The crime statistics are only as good as the data being collected. From personal experience I've witnessed 3 crimes which should have contributed to crime statistics but didn't. My suspicion is that cities across America are having similar problems simply taking in and documenting reports of crime. It could very well be that crime is actually rising, people are correctly perceiving that crime is rising, yet the data to substantiate the rising crime rate isn't getting recorded.
ericfrazier 3y ago
Fewer people reporting crimes
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  When I had a hit and run on my parked vehicle in front of my house, the 911 operator told me to call 311 to file a police report even though I could see the person driving away... I have a feeling the stats are being significantly massaged to come to the conclusion that crime is not rising. 30 years ago when I was growing up, I never saw open drug use or prostitution but now that is common and accepted. I don't remember the level of theft/car break ins either. Something has definitely changed for the worse.
selivanovp 3y ago
Every time I see a similar headline, I'm remembering The Wire and how Baltimor police was working with stats to support elections promises.
altals2023 3y ago
[flagged]

56 points by ZunarJ5 3y ago

This would make sense since the Gallup survey is based on people's perceptions based on social & traditional media that they see regularly. People remember notable events or shocking things, no one remembers the regular days where everything just went as normal - and the media doesn't cover such things since they are looking to grab attention with headlines. The article mentions this at the end as outlier incidents, but just giving people the overall statistics may not help change their mind either because of what they perceive from other media sources.

diogenescynic 3y ago

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully feel like crime is increasing because they see all this happening around them. Alas, the media and politicians say 'nothing is happening' because now prostitution, theft, and drugs are decriminalized. I am only in my mid 30s and have lived in California my entire life and I've never seen more open drug use, more theft/shoplifting, and prostitution is now more flagrant than it's ever been. Things really seem to accelerate into a free fall after prop 47 was passed.

rdevsrex 3y ago
Especially in cities like SF.
addicted 3y ago
I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.
- scotty79 3y ago
  It would be reassuring if the proportion of murder to other, more common and visible crime was constant. But it's not. You may still get decrease in murders while having 10 fold increase in theft.
- 10u152 3y ago
  What about deaths classified as suicide/accidental?
- addicted 3y ago
  Besides that throughout the 2000s and 2010s when crime hit historic lows in the US Americans continued to say crime was increasing. We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...
  - uoaei 3y ago
    What do overdoses have to do with crime?
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
sfblah 3y ago
It seems like this effect should be measurable in some kind of principled way. Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes? Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017. Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Crime%20In%20CA%202022f.pdf https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023... Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.
- User23 3y ago
  Recently in 2020 homicides peaked in the aftermath of the “mostly peaceful protests” and the subsequent law officer retreat to the donut shop. Traffic deaths also surged due to depolicing. It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!
- ahazred8ta 3y ago
  In round numbers, US homicides per 100,000 were about 10 in the 80s-90s, 5 before the pandemic, and back down to 6.3 in 2022. -- https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate https://www.google.com/search?q=us+homicide+rate

kbar13 3y ago

anger and "concern" about rising crime is a great way to pump the impressions numbers. i love these "research shows" crime articles. their research methodology is hilarious: https://www.foxnews.com/us/most-unsafe-cities-holiday-season-research-shows https://www.foxnews.com/us/most-unsafe-cities-holiday-season... > Rockville, Maryland, ranked No. 1 for having the largest percentage of Airbnb properties without security cameras isn't that... a good thing? i feel like not having security cameras usually means you don't feel like you need to have an eye on everything... and privacy at an airbnb is quite nice. might find a reason to visit rockville! > Newark, Delaware, ranked No. 1 for Google searches related to holiday security i feel like the only relation to actual safety here is the word "security" in this sentence.

greatpostman 3y ago

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

bavent 3y ago
You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?
- greatpostman 3y ago
  [flagged]
- DanTheManPR 3y ago
  Here's an anecdote: I haven't been the victim of any type of crime for the last 15 years, whereas I had multiple break-ins and near violent encounters in the 00s and 90s. My neighborhood and city (I live in Northeast Minneapolis) feels dramatically safer than it did when I was younger. My relatives in the burbs think it's some sort of crime infested hellhole. I'm inclined to think that a actually, crime IS dropping and that people who think that it isn't watching and reading a lot of media that is filling their heads with nonsense.
- matrix87 3y ago
  No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes common sense is more trustworthy And I don't think flagging is an appropriate response to gp either, there's definitely room to discuss that type of perspective
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

pasttense01 3y ago

There is a growing consensus that there is no point in reporting a crime to the police in most instances since it will take up your time doing so and either the police either won't even try to catch the perp or will fail to do so--and even if they do he will not receive a significant sanction.

nadermx 3y ago
There also seems to be the chance that by calling the police you yourself get shot by them.
avs733 3y ago
Can you cite this growing consensus? I’m agnostic whether you are right or wrong but one side brings data and you just have an anecdote.
- geepytee 3y ago
  Don't we all have a similar anecdote to tell?
mccrory 3y ago
Have a friend who is in security, when they have to cuff someone and call 911, they often get sent to voicemail. 10 minutes later 911 calls back and if the issue isn’t live anymore they refuse to send anyone. Had another incident personally where the police never came. Several friends have had similar experience, while not scientific it indicates there is at least a local problem. The other cities I look at seem to have similar issues in the news. There is no way crime is getting better right now.
mattmaroon 3y ago
Is it growing? That was the consensus for as long as I remember. Great scene about it in the big lebowski.
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softwaredoug 3y ago

So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media. I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening. https://vimeo.com/39131010 https://vimeo.com/39131010 Even without any nefarious motivations, simple survivorship bias will mean any form of media will report on the exceptions to the rule, not the rule itself. Don't substitute media input for first hand knowledge. Since Covid+WfH, I've felt this acutely and had to remind myself online is not real life.

10111001 3y ago
> So much knowledge of various places (downtown of my city, for example) is not first hand, but from (social) media. > I'm reminded of this video from Bowling for Columbine, where they stroll around South Central LA, and realize its pleasant and nothing crazy is happening. You might have a point, but: 1. A citation to a partisan propagandist shouldn't convince anyone. 2. The segment seems to rest on the fallacious assumption that dangerous areas can never be pleasant and will continuously have something "crazy" happening. I mean, there are literal warzones where you could probably manage to film a five minute stroll through some pleasant meadow (due to lulls in the fighting). I think the truth is that it's just hard to get a true impression of a place without actually spending a lot of time there.

fallingknife 3y ago

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for stolen goods on the streets? Yeah, I'm sure crime is down. That sounds right.

jliptzin 3y ago
Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?
- spinach 3y ago
  Because Walmart also pays taxes.
  - sgarland 3y ago
    Do they, though?
  - jliptzin 3y ago
    There is no way Walmart pays more per sq foot in local taxes than I do.
- scarface_74 3y ago
  Because those businesses also pay taxes and probably more than you do?
  - jliptzin 3y ago
    Are you sure that's true? https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-chinese-jv-to-avoid-us-tax https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-... https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/walmart-tax-every-american-taxpayer-pays/100188002/ https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/wa... https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-One-Pager-orange-header.pdf https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-O...

mcmoor 3y ago

Fell back to pre pandemic levels? I guess people are right that the last few years (covid era) have quite concerning crime rates.

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o11c 3y ago
I mean, "lowest level since 1961" is technically pre-pandemic, sure.

hx8 3y ago

I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers. * Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers. * This has a reinforcing cycle where number nudgers are promoted and in turn promote other number nudgers until leadership is saturated. More creative accounting practices are encouraged as the environment becomes more competitive. * Many District Attorney's are happy to prosecute lesser charges that are easier to convict on instead of more serious charges that more accurately reflect the reality of what happened.

ethanbond 3y ago
What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?
- hx8 3y ago
  It describes a process in which crime reporting progressively gets further from the ground truth over time. This isn't new.
  - jeremyjh 3y ago
    All of those incentives were in play 50 years ago. You may as well say you just don't like statistics that you disagree with.
    - hx8 3y ago
      As discussed in the bullet points, those incentives create a sort of natural selection which changes how the statistics are reported over time. It's not like we are measuring length or temperature. The data has a degree of human subjectivity when being recorded. It seems normal for that subjectivity to shift over time, especially when we are taking about different humans over timespans of decades.
- 3y ago

grumple 3y ago

Nobody cares that it dropped in 2023. We care that it's worse than a decade ago, which it is. We hit a local minimum of 4.4 murders per 100k in 2014. It was 6.3 in 2022. That's a big difference. Property crime goes unreported. It's not worth the trouble. I've had a dozen packages stolen, for example. My apartment building had 30 bikes stolen and hundreds more packages stolen. None of these will show up in the statistics. I have friends that have been carjacked or witnessed carjacking. Carjacking numbers are way up in my city compared to 10 years ago. Murders hit a low of 246 for us in 2013. The last 3 years were 499, 562, and 516, and they now cook the books by not counting suspicious deaths. We're down this year, which is great, but the past 5 years have been bloody as hell. Major crimes dropping 8% from recent local maxima is not an achievement and doesn't mean people's perceptions of rising crime are incorrect. The past single year's delta alone is just not super relevant.

verteu 3y ago

I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate or https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/query https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (not per-capita) Much like inflation, people aren't great at estimating the precise year-over-year change, but the last 5 or 10 years shows some real reasons for concern.

crazygringo 3y ago
You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down. In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.
- zzleeper 3y ago
  In that imgur plot see it ending in 2022, and crime has barely bulged after exploding in 2020-21, where there was the largest increase in the entire time series. We are basically back to 1995 homicide levels which is insane
  - crazygringo 3y ago
    The imgur link is misleading because it's not per capita and doesn't show the 0 point. Here is an accurate graph: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ We are nowhere near the peak of the 1990's, nor are we at 1995 levels. Rates trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022: https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ https://counciloncj.org/mid-year-2023-crime-trends/ Which would be back to pre-2020 levels.
    - verteu 3y ago
      Thx -- your graph is the better one. There's still a clear inflection point at 2014.

adolph 3y ago

A US crime rate is as useful to individual conceptions of potential victimization as US GDP is to employment.

SantalBlush 3y ago

I've noticed a general pattern on HN, and I think this thread exemplifies it: If the research confirms someone's personal experience, then they don't question the research methodology. On the other hand, if the research contradicts their experience, they look deeper into the methodology to find flaws in it. It's just a more intellectual form of confirmation bias.

hn_go_brrrrr 3y ago
This is a general human pattern and not at all confined to HN.
diogenescynic 3y ago
Not all research is equal and it's often heavily biased by who is funding and promoting it. If research doesn't validate some interest groups talking point, we don't even hear about it.

matrix87 3y ago

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statistically sound", I could care less. Crime is decreasing? Okay, I guess it isn't decreasing quickly enough

crazygringo 3y ago
No. The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually. Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics. But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people. And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.
- deleted 3y ago
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- drewcoo 3y ago
  > Factually. Whose facts? Who do you trust and is it a source I do, too? What's included their data and what isn't? How recent is the data they're using? If I go by the FBI a few months ago, crime is down. But the data is only up through 2022, so someone using another source will say the FBI info is inaccurate. https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-crime-in-the-nation-statistics https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-cr... > the truth still matters Maybe they matter, but there are multiple truths. > Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people Maybe those people don't realize that even science is our best understanding given current data. Or that our "truths" are often hazy statistical models. A sure recipe for falsehood is seeking simple answers.
  - crazygringo 3y ago
    What are you arguing? That we're can't know anything ever? That's not very useful in any kind of practical sense. Figuring out what's going on from statistics isn't that hard if you understand how those statistics are being collected. But they sure beat whatever you, a single person, happens to see with your own eyes. Your personal experience is an almost infinitesimally small random slice. It's just not statistically significant. Statistics may always have error bars, but the errors bars around your personal sampling of one will always be incomparably larger.

zzleeper 3y ago

Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically? EG: "D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year." https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/dc-homicide-rate-20-year-high/65-dfd8cad1-e1cf-4d39-84f2-ca4b7109af99 https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/dc-homicide-rate-20... https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/10/03/dc-crime-by-neighborhood-2023 https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/10/03/dc-crim...

smt88 3y ago
Homicide is a tiny fraction of all crime, and the numbers of homicides are low enough in large US cities that small changes can lead to fairly large percentages.
- zzleeper 3y ago
  Every crime category is spiking in DC. EG: petty crime: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/washington-dc-takes-crown-petty-crime-capital-america https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/crime/washington-dc-... carjacking: https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/whats-driving-dcs-carjacking-numbers-expert-suggests-perceived-lack-of-consequences/3499873/ https://www.nbcwashington.com/investigations/whats-driving-d...
nerdponx 3y ago
I was wondering about this too. Maybe the geographical distribution of crime is changing, even if overall there is less of it per capita.

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ryukoposting 3y ago

They probably think it's rising because it rose substantially in 2020/21 and is nowhere close to returning to the typical levels of the 20 years prior. St Louis should have all-time low total homicides, it's experiencing terminal population collapse. There are American suburbs similar in population to St Louis. So much of this article is just contrarian clickbait. On the other hand, Detroit feels significantly safer than it did 10 years ago. It's still desperately poor, but it's a pleasant place to visit now. It's pretty, and it has clung onto its culture and history. For better and worse, these things tend to come back around. That doesn't happen if we pretend nothing is wrong. I think "news" entertainment has painted this situation as a return to '70s-'80s violence, and that's not even close to reality. I'm not fleeing to the burbs, or going outside with a bulletproof vest. There's a problem, but it's solvable, and it won't take decades to fix.

xnx 3y ago

Crime is such an immensely local and personal phenomenon. Statistics are abstract until you're the one getting carjacked by 5 guys or getting punched in the face during a home burglary.

sam_s3piol 3y ago

I have a some personal anecdotes from the past few years living in Los Angeles that might help explain the discrepancy between people's perceptions and the crime data. A couple years ago two cars pulled up in front of the house across the street from mine, four people got out and started trying to break in by throwing a rock through the front window. The noise was loud enough to alert myself and a couple other neighbors on the street who came out to see the burglars fleeing back to their cars after the homeowner scared them away with a gun. I called 911 and waited on hold for 2 hours for someone to answer only to tell me that the only the people who had their house broken into could file a report and to have them call back. When I went to tell this to the neighbor it turned out that he did try to report it but gave up after waiting on hold for an hour. In the end this home break in was never reported and did not make it into the crime data. Last year, living in a different part of Los Angeles, I woke up at 4am to the sound of people yelling and bottles breaking outside. There was a group of very noticeably drunk people sitting on the hoods of their cars drinking in the street. I watched them long enough to determine they were all wasted, at least one of them would be driving, and if any of them drove they'd be a danger to themselves and others. Again I called 911, waited a half hour, and was told they'd dispatch someone. A half hour later they all got into separate cars and did indeed drive away, leaving empty beer bottles next to where their cars had been. It's hard to know if LAPD actually came to check because this all happened on the street adjacent to the back gate of the Hollywood police department and around 6am it gets a lot of traffic from police cars heading back to the station at the end of the shift. As far as I can tell this crime was never reported and did not get included in the data. Also within the last year, on the same street adjacent to the police station, a homeless man seemingly in a manic episode was vandalizing parked cars while screaming about killing people of a certain protected group. This time I called 911, waited 20 minutes and told the operator what I saw. Because the homeless man had wandered to a different street and I couldn't see him anymore I was told it's not an ongoing crime and to call the LAPD non-emergency line so they can take the report. I called the non-emergency line and reached their voicemail. This is another crime that wasn't reported and didn't get included in the data. The crime statistics are only as good as the data being collected. From personal experience I've witnessed 3 crimes which should have contributed to crime statistics but didn't. My suspicion is that cities across America are having similar problems simply taking in and documenting reports of crime. It could very well be that crime is actually rising, people are correctly perceiving that crime is rising, yet the data to substantiate the rising crime rate isn't getting recorded.

ericfrazier 3y ago

Fewer people reporting crimes

diogenescynic 3y ago
When I had a hit and run on my parked vehicle in front of my house, the 911 operator told me to call 311 to file a police report even though I could see the person driving away... I have a feeling the stats are being significantly massaged to come to the conclusion that crime is not rising. 30 years ago when I was growing up, I never saw open drug use or prostitution but now that is common and accepted. I don't remember the level of theft/car break ins either. Something has definitely changed for the worse.

selivanovp 3y ago

Every time I see a similar headline, I'm remembering The Wire and how Baltimor police was working with stats to support elections promises.

altals2023 3y ago

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