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Moore's Law says transistor count doubles every two years. If it is doubling every three years, it is dead.
by nabakin 3y ago
Moore's Law says transistor count doubles every two years. If it is doubling every three years, it is dead.
- blkhawk 3y agoI think it always varied a bit and only in the average approached anything like 12 months. otherwise it died every time it "took" 11 months and 29days or 12 months and 1 day :P
- creato 3y agoOriginally it was doubling every year. It was already revised down to two years. By your strict interpretation, it’s been dead since the 70s.
- nabakin 3y agoThere are some differences though 1. That revision was done by Moore himself 2. It is the version of the law everyone understands as Moore's Law today and the one Intel is referring to here 3. They are not revising an error like Moore did Otherwise, I'd agree. If this redefining of Moore's Law held over the next 30 years, became the commonly understood definition, and then they extended it from 3 to 4 years, I'd say the same thing again.
- devnullbrain 3y agoAll semiconductor companies are incentivised to protect the myth but none more so than Intel. Not only do they get a competitive advantage over the companies dependent on TSMC, they also derive pride from being the company Moore co-founded.
- nabakin 3y agoAgreed. I'd also argue that for most intents and purposes, Moore's Law died in 2005 with Dennard Scaling.
- ksec 3y agoThat is what I have been saying since 2017. ( Including the three years cadence ) It took a really long time for people to understand. And here is another thing I have been saying since 2020.[1] >In the past 3 years all major PR has twisted the word "Moore's Law" to just meant transistor improvement. I wrote that in 2022 and was downvoted to oblivion. It is sad we often have to debate about simple "facts". Only years later could we only accept it as truth. [1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33888629 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33888629
- nabakin 3y agoYeah I more or less agree. The whole value/interest in Moore's Law was that it roughly reflected performance, but that stopped in 2005 with Dennard Scaling and when they redefined what the word CPU meant.
- gary_0 3y agoIt is dead and has been replaced by Gelsinger's Law.
- windexh8er 3y agoThat law must be to slowly kill companies he's CEO of due to his inability to truly understand the market he should be targeting. Gelsinger should better understand his value at this point, because a CEO he is not.