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> Life expectancy has only been increasing because child mortality has decreased to almost zero. The upper end has not shifted much at all. A change of five to
by throw0101a 3y ago
> Life expectancy has only been increasing because child mortality has decreased to almost zero. The upper end has not shifted much at all.
A change of five to eight years makes a material difference in actuarial terms when you have to plan for retirement:
> In 1920–1922, Canadian men who had lived to age 65 could expect to live for 13 more years, and women could expect to live for 13.5 more years (to age 78.0 and 78.5 respectively). The expected total life span of 65-year-olds was substantially higher than life expectancy at birth: 19.2 years higher for men and 18.0 years higher for women.
> In 2009–2011, 65-year-old men were expected to live until they were 83.8, while 65-year-old women were expected to live until the age of 86.7. This means that from 1920–1922 to 2009–2011, the life expectancies of 65-year-olds increased by 5.8 years for men and 8.2 years for women. This is a much smaller gain than the 20-year increase in life expectancy for newborns during this same period.
* https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2016002-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-630-x/11-630-x2016002...
Starting at 65, the odds of hitting an age of 90 are worth considering when doing planning:
> Assume we have 1,000 relatively healthy 65-year-old men. The chances of their staying alive at least until their 80s are quite good. More difficult, however, is avoiding critical illness – very serious conditions such as heart attacks, life-threatening cancers, stroke and Alzheimer’s. (There are 14 classifications in all.) While more than 500 of these men will survive until age 90, only 39 of them are expected to avoid a critical illness by that age. Of the 41 survivors at age 100, none is expected to be free of critical illness.
* https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-what-are-the-odds-of-a-man-reaching-100-in-reasonably-good-health/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/r...