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I see this idea sometimes in the context of climate change. It's fundamentally flawed. Collapse is not binary, it's not collapse or no collapse. If we miss one

I see this idea sometimes in the context of climate change. It's fundamentally flawed. Collapse is not binary, it's not collapse or no collapse. If we miss one climate goal, then the next goal comes up. If we cannot limit warming to 2°C (and it doesn't look like we will)... Well, 2.5°C is more than a magnitude worse than that. Those who survive 2°C warming would be glad that it's not 2.5°C. It's not like a test where you can say "screw this, I'm gonna fail anyways."

yreg 3y ago
Surely at some point it is binary.
- dougmwne 3y ago
  Total human extinction. That’s how you break it down to a binary outcome. There are so many levels of survival and civilization above that.
  - yreg 3y ago
    Not sure why I'm downvoted. Who the hell disagrees that even a total extinction isn't a 'civilization collapse'.
- ethbr1 3y ago
  At the point that energy and food production break down, in their ability to carry world population. You can't produce energy without energy. And you can't produce food without energy and soil.
orf 3y ago
By this logic a car crash isn’t binary either, because the car could have always set on fire, or exploded, or fallen into a spontaneous black hole etc. It’s still a car crash regardless of the magnitude, and a collapse is still a collapse if it’s a small or a large one.
- joefourier 3y ago
  Well… a car crash is absolutely not binary. There’s a huge spectrum between a fender bender at low speed and a deadly multi-vehicle pile up on the motorway. And there’s a huge spectrum of injuries from whiplash, fractures, loss of limbs, and death. You absolutely can’t treat all car crashes as equal, same way you can’t treat all collapse as equal. The Soviet Union collapsed for instance, and the 90s were absolutely a struggle, but it didn’t mean all Russians regressed to subsistence agriculture and there was eventually a recovery. Its member states are still around, with some doing better than others (the Baltic states for instance).
- ajross 3y ago
  > By this logic a car crash isn’t binary either Uh... yes? Would you rather take a 50mph head on collision driving a 2023 Outback or a 1930 Model A? The point is that car crashes are indeed dangerous, and we've spent a century of engineering making them significantly (vastly, really) less so. And that's a good thing to be celebrated, and not rejected just because we don't want to get into crashes in the first place. Climate change mitigation follows the same ethical principles.
  - orf 3y ago
    No idea, I don't drive. But both of those are a crash, regardless of the speed or model.
    - ajross 3y ago
      Then let me be clearer: one is a routine, eminently survivable collisoin that happens dozens of times every day, the other is a certain death sentence. They are different, and they are different because smart people cared to fix a problem they saw instead of just throwing up their hands in despair. To wit: if you genuinely care about this stuff, get off your ass and help instead of whining on the internet.
      - yreg 3y ago
        Both of the situations are car crashes. What are you even claiming?
vitehozonage 3y ago
It is possible that some sort of runaway effect can happen after a tipping point is reached. Many scenarios lead to that. e.g. - AI could have a singularity. - Ice reflects heat, so there can be a vicious circle as ice melts. - Ocean currents could suddenly shift into a different pattern. - Any sort of stressor, like global food shortage, can lead to instability and thus nuclear world war over resources - A contagious disease could cause infertility/death globally. Or, say, if the covid vaccine or microplastics had an unexpected delayed effect after a few years We tempt all these risks more and more as we continue living unsustainably

yreg 3y ago

Surely at some point it is binary.

dougmwne 3y ago
Total human extinction. That’s how you break it down to a binary outcome. There are so many levels of survival and civilization above that.
- yreg 3y ago
  Not sure why I'm downvoted. Who the hell disagrees that even a total extinction isn't a 'civilization collapse'.
ethbr1 3y ago
At the point that energy and food production break down, in their ability to carry world population. You can't produce energy without energy. And you can't produce food without energy and soil.

orf 3y ago

By this logic a car crash isn’t binary either, because the car could have always set on fire, or exploded, or fallen into a spontaneous black hole etc. It’s still a car crash regardless of the magnitude, and a collapse is still a collapse if it’s a small or a large one.

joefourier 3y ago
Well… a car crash is absolutely not binary. There’s a huge spectrum between a fender bender at low speed and a deadly multi-vehicle pile up on the motorway. And there’s a huge spectrum of injuries from whiplash, fractures, loss of limbs, and death. You absolutely can’t treat all car crashes as equal, same way you can’t treat all collapse as equal. The Soviet Union collapsed for instance, and the 90s were absolutely a struggle, but it didn’t mean all Russians regressed to subsistence agriculture and there was eventually a recovery. Its member states are still around, with some doing better than others (the Baltic states for instance).
ajross 3y ago
> By this logic a car crash isn’t binary either Uh... yes? Would you rather take a 50mph head on collision driving a 2023 Outback or a 1930 Model A? The point is that car crashes are indeed dangerous, and we've spent a century of engineering making them significantly (vastly, really) less so. And that's a good thing to be celebrated, and not rejected just because we don't want to get into crashes in the first place. Climate change mitigation follows the same ethical principles.
- orf 3y ago
  No idea, I don't drive. But both of those are a crash, regardless of the speed or model.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Then let me be clearer: one is a routine, eminently survivable collisoin that happens dozens of times every day, the other is a certain death sentence. They are different, and they are different because smart people cared to fix a problem they saw instead of just throwing up their hands in despair. To wit: if you genuinely care about this stuff, get off your ass and help instead of whining on the internet.
    - yreg 3y ago
      Both of the situations are car crashes. What are you even claiming?

vitehozonage 3y ago

It is possible that some sort of runaway effect can happen after a tipping point is reached. Many scenarios lead to that. e.g. - AI could have a singularity. - Ice reflects heat, so there can be a vicious circle as ice melts. - Ocean currents could suddenly shift into a different pattern. - Any sort of stressor, like global food shortage, can lead to instability and thus nuclear world war over resources - A contagious disease could cause infertility/death globally. Or, say, if the covid vaccine or microplastics had an unexpected delayed effect after a few years We tempt all these risks more and more as we continue living unsustainably