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Russia may attempt to attack Europe next winter

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
I had to double check this was not an Onion article since it's full of FUD. Russia doesn't have the muscle now for a military attack on Europe when it's still stuck in Eastern Ukraine. Plus, Russia is already attacking Europe and has been for a long time, except not militarily but electronically, politically and economically: gas distribution disruption, cyber attacks, intervening in elections, lobbying for fossil fuels and right wing parties, weaponizing migrants at EU borders, etc. That's the kind of warfare Russia does in Europe and it's more effective than sending things that go boom as those can more easily be countered. Political destabilization is more difficult to counter.
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  This seems directed at the Trump campaign more than anything else. There are a number of stories popping up in the media at the moment that are essentially hitjobs against a Trump re-election.
  - bediger4000 3y ago
    You're correct, it is so directed. It's also from the Kyiv Independent, or at least that's what it says at the end of the article. We do have to evaluate it in that light. I wouldn't call it a "hitjob". The article illustrates consequences of an aspect of Trump's foreign policy. Trump's (potential) foreign policy is something a US voter should evaluate, especially in light of the testimony during his first impeachment inquiry and trial.
- johndunne 3y ago
  Exactly. I think this article is scare mongering, probably part of a larger campaign to sow fear. The Russian army will take at least a decade to get to a point where it could pose an existential threat to the nato bloc. The scary problem is the lack of concern the Russian commanders have for their own young men’s lives. The border nato countries could see some woeful damage inflicted on them if any conflict did occur. But, I think the same logic that has prevented any nuclear escalation so far would apply in a conflict with nato. The doctrine of MAD would apply and so far Putin appears to be respecting this.
  - fithisux 3y ago
    Exactly, an excuse for increases in prices
- NoPie 3y ago
  Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that. Intelligence tried to warn about that and most European governments ignored that. The theory is that Russia has nothing to lose. Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO. If attacking the Baltic countries will not provoke immediate reaction from NATO, it would mean that NATO was empty promises. Or maybe this warning is false. We have no way of knowing but it makes sense to be prepared for this eventuality.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    >Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that. If only there were prizes in war for trying instead of succeeding. >Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO. It's much easier to force NATO/EU breakdown through soft means like political destabilization. Direct military attacks only cause the blocks to strengthen: see the ascension of Sweden and Finland after the attack.
    - NoPie 3y ago
      Is it? Everybody is an expert online. My trust in those experts is 0.
      - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
        You don't need to be an expert. Just look at what happened in Ukraine. Russia's results, or lack thereof speak for themselves.
        NoPie 3y ago
        Ukraine and Baltic countries are not the same. This comparison is false. No wonder the whole world went mad and demanded vaccine mandates for vaccine that does not even prevent the spread of infection. Too much reliance on “experts” that repeat mindlessly “vaccines good” instead of looking into details of a particular vaccine.
        3y ago
tomohawk 3y ago
Russia's been attacking Europe for a long time now. Not all attacks are kinetic. From using Wagner to destabilize the middle east and Africa, leading to mass displacement of people towards Europe, to cyber and economic gambits.
- VK538FY 3y ago
  > mass displacement of people towards Europe I have read no serious analysis suggesting that such was created by anything but the NATO war against Libya.
fithisux 3y ago
Of course this is not a serious article but mostly some kind of government FUD to increase prices "because of a looming danger". Been there, done that. Expensive food, expensive electricity and new multimillionaires having fun with "the russian danger"
6R1M0R4CL3 3y ago
[flagged]

I had to double check this was not an Onion article since it's full of FUD. Russia doesn't have the muscle now for a military attack on Europe when it's still stuck in Eastern Ukraine. Plus, Russia is already attacking Europe and has been for a long time, except not militarily but electronically, politically and economically: gas distribution disruption, cyber attacks, intervening in elections, lobbying for fossil fuels and right wing parties, weaponizing migrants at EU borders, etc. That's the kind of warfare Russia does in Europe and it's more effective than sending things that go boom as those can more easily be countered. Political destabilization is more difficult to counter.

mytailorisrich 3y ago
This seems directed at the Trump campaign more than anything else. There are a number of stories popping up in the media at the moment that are essentially hitjobs against a Trump re-election.
- bediger4000 3y ago
  You're correct, it is so directed. It's also from the Kyiv Independent, or at least that's what it says at the end of the article. We do have to evaluate it in that light. I wouldn't call it a "hitjob". The article illustrates consequences of an aspect of Trump's foreign policy. Trump's (potential) foreign policy is something a US voter should evaluate, especially in light of the testimony during his first impeachment inquiry and trial.
johndunne 3y ago
Exactly. I think this article is scare mongering, probably part of a larger campaign to sow fear. The Russian army will take at least a decade to get to a point where it could pose an existential threat to the nato bloc. The scary problem is the lack of concern the Russian commanders have for their own young men’s lives. The border nato countries could see some woeful damage inflicted on them if any conflict did occur. But, I think the same logic that has prevented any nuclear escalation so far would apply in a conflict with nato. The doctrine of MAD would apply and so far Putin appears to be respecting this.
- fithisux 3y ago
  Exactly, an excuse for increases in prices
NoPie 3y ago
Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that. Intelligence tried to warn about that and most European governments ignored that. The theory is that Russia has nothing to lose. Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO. If attacking the Baltic countries will not provoke immediate reaction from NATO, it would mean that NATO was empty promises. Or maybe this warning is false. We have no way of knowing but it makes sense to be prepared for this eventuality.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  >Russia had no military strength to take over Kyiv and yet it tried to do that. If only there were prizes in war for trying instead of succeeding. >Their plan may not be to win but to force the breakdown of NATO. It's much easier to force NATO/EU breakdown through soft means like political destabilization. Direct military attacks only cause the blocks to strengthen: see the ascension of Sweden and Finland after the attack.
  - NoPie 3y ago
    Is it? Everybody is an expert online. My trust in those experts is 0.
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      You don't need to be an expert. Just look at what happened in Ukraine. Russia's results, or lack thereof speak for themselves.
      - NoPie 3y ago
        Ukraine and Baltic countries are not the same. This comparison is false. No wonder the whole world went mad and demanded vaccine mandates for vaccine that does not even prevent the spread of infection. Too much reliance on “experts” that repeat mindlessly “vaccines good” instead of looking into details of a particular vaccine.
      - 3y ago

tomohawk 3y ago

Russia's been attacking Europe for a long time now. Not all attacks are kinetic. From using Wagner to destabilize the middle east and Africa, leading to mass displacement of people towards Europe, to cyber and economic gambits.

VK538FY 3y ago
> mass displacement of people towards Europe I have read no serious analysis suggesting that such was created by anything but the NATO war against Libya.

fithisux 3y ago

Of course this is not a serious article but mostly some kind of government FUD to increase prices "because of a looming danger". Been there, done that. Expensive food, expensive electricity and new multimillionaires having fun with "the russian danger"

6R1M0R4CL3 3y ago

[flagged]