4 ms·

Why is Taiwan being invaded in a few years? Whats the reasoning for waiting?

• junofan 3y ago
  It’s China’s centennial celebration.
• gota 3y ago
  I'm not sure the post parent to yours was serious, but I've seen arguments that international diplomacy is currently based on assuming a (somewhat abrupt?) incoming end to the Pax americana that has held since the Cold War Most generally, that the class divide and apparent drop in quality of life of the lower classes would cause the US to go some economic and political turnoil. And that most likely it'd end in a return to the non-interventionism of the early XXth century In this particular case meaning China would be "waiting" for the US to largely withdraw military presence from mostly everywhere We may be cursed with some interesting times ahead.
  • deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
• ls612 3y ago
  The 2027 date gets thrown around a lot because of some congressional testimony claiming their goal was to be ready to invade by 2027. But the broader concern is because of a convergence of factors towards the end of the decade. US forces are currently in a transitional period where they are retooling from fighting goat herders in the sandbox to fighting a peer conflict. This takes time though and the minimum relative peer strength of the Navy is expected to be late in the 2020s. At the same time China is running out of gas on their growth model and has an enormous demographic catastrophe coming their way by the mid 2030s so their capabilities may well start declining next decade. Thus the CCP faces a “now or never” moment with regards to forcing the Taiwan issue in the last few years of this decade and there is speculation Xi may be ballsy enough to try it, especially after Putin was aggressive enough to roll the dice on Ukraine.