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Google’s 2022 revenue was $280B. They (Google) have $13-19B profit per quarter, so their R&D budget relative to revenue is a lot smaller than what we assume Sp
by sneak 3y ago
Google’s 2022 revenue was $280B.
They (Google) have $13-19B profit per quarter, so their R&D budget relative to revenue is a lot smaller than what we assume SpaceX’s to be. (If we have real numbers for SpaceX, please tell me. I’m quite curious.)
Bloomberg says SpaceX’s revenue was $9B this year and is expected to hit $15B next year given the success of Starlink. (For reference, Google makes a SpaceX amount of annual revenue every 11 days. Scale counts, too.)
I think this (R&D expense vs revenue) is the fundamental characteristic of a startup. Despite strong demand for F9 and Starlink, these aren’t the product market fit they are after, they’re more like bridge financing.
SpaceX is way, way more important and valuable than even $20B/year in revenue. Presuming they can make Starship work, a single Starship+Booster can, with 3 flights a day, double the total tonnage on orbit (of all human history thus far) in one year. The value of that will be absolutely immense, and that will cost them less than $100B from where they are at today. Their revenue will easily be 10x greater.
Is there some foreseeable circumstance where Google’s revenue could 10x or 20x?
When SpaceX has a few dozen Starships taking 10,000 tons each day into orbit with hundreds of launches every day, they will practically cease being a startup in my view, Mars colony or no. Then, manufacturing will take over their expenses (and scaling manufacturing, which, while still a major technical accomplishment, is a horse of a different color than spending toward developing the first working one).
In the business of heavy manufacturing, even $4-20B in revenue is pretty small, doubly so for aerospace. Space vehicles are more expensive than just about anything else that can exist.