Kind of reminded me of how just before WeWork came crashing down it raised more money at a $47 billion valuation. Besides the fact that both companies have (or

Kind of reminded me of how just before WeWork came crashing down it raised more money at a $47 billion valuation. Besides the fact that both companies have (or rather, had) lofty valuations, there are some other interesting parallels. There's the lack of any real moat. There's the insane amounts of cash they were spending, on leases in WeWork's case, and tech infra in the case of OpenAI. Both were lead by highly charismatic CEO's who were arguably their respective company's greatest asset, but also perhaps their greatest liability. Kind of also reminded me of how Andreesen Horowitz gave Adam Neumann $350 million back in 2022 for some new real-estate venture. I mean, at this point, it seems very stupid to give him more money, and yet people who appear to be "in the know" are not only giving him more money, but absolutely insane amounts of money. I bring up this latter point because it's one of those things that kind of makes you question what you understand. Why are otherwise smart and knowledgeable people doing something that seems stupid? Are you wrong? Or are they wrong? I mean, they know more than you do, so normally you would be wrong, but in this case what they're doing seems so stupid that you aren't so sure. I feel similarly about AI. Not that I think AI is necessarily stupid. I for one am excited about what could come from applying AI to drug discovery. It just seems kind of crazy to create a machine that's really good at next token prediction and extrapolate from that all these crazy predictions. That this will lead to machines capable of understanding, reasoning, intelligence, and eventually, AGI. Either the experts are wrong, or I'm wrong, and I'm normally inclined to believe in the experts, but in this case what they believe is so nutty that I really have to question things.