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If Russia wins in Ukraine, there is a good chance there will be war in Europe in a few years if not sooner.

dragonwriter 3y ago
There is already a war (more than one if you count Russia's wars with its neighbors separately rather than as a single Russia vs. various neighbors war) in Europe, and will continue to be one whether or not Russia wins in Ukraine unless it settles all of the other ones. Some of them are not in particularly active combat phases right now, but...
carabiner 3y ago
Yes. Timeline: * Russia wins within the next year and divides East and West Ukraine * West Ukraine joins NATO, powder keg is set * Massive arms buildups like we have never seen in history on both sides * Within 5 years, Russia attacks West Ukraine, China attacks Taiwan, and it's on
- pbak 3y ago
  Except that Russian officials up and down the flagpole - including the head honcho just this week - have very clearly and publicly said they'd rather that Poland, Romania and Hungary split up the Western half, and deal with the rebellious Galicians than them. They don't want the headache and would be rather content to stop their efforts at Kharkhiv-Odessa line (if that's even possible to achieve for them, of course).
  - fifilura 3y ago
    If I recall correctly they attacked and tried to surround Kyiv.
mytailorisrich 3y ago
No, this does not make sense. Both sides know the limit not to cross. Certainly, Russia is in fact rather weak (which the author of the article acknowledges) as we've seen, and knows not to attack Nato. In addition, point 4 in the article does not make much sense. Why would a Russian victory 'encourage' mainland China to invade Taiwan, for instance? It wouldn't change anything there. To me this feels like a typical scaremongering piece for the purpose of shoring up support for Ukraine when it is said to be somewhat waning but it fails to make good points.
- kdwikzncba 3y ago
  Also, Russia doesn't have nukes, common misconception
  - sam_bristow 3y ago
    Huh? The Russian Federation absolutely does have nuclear weapons. 5,889 warheads, more than the USA in terms of raw numbers.
  - mtmail 3y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_arsenal_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_des...
- derstander 3y ago
  > In addition, point 4 in the article does not make much sense. Why would a Russian victory 'encourage' mainland China to invade Taiwan, for instance? It wouldn't change anything there. Point 4 makes sense to me — though I’m certainly no expert in international affairs. What it says to me is something about the world as a whole rather than something particularly about China and Taiwan. It says that the powers that be who are interested in maintaining the status quo in the world are either unwilling or unable to enforce continuing adherence to it. That could certainly embolden countries that are unhappy with the status quo but have until now been unwilling to challenge it.

There is already a war (more than one if you count Russia's wars with its neighbors separately rather than as a single Russia vs. various neighbors war) in Europe, and will continue to be one whether or not Russia wins in Ukraine unless it settles all of the other ones. Some of them are not in particularly active combat phases right now, but...

carabiner 3y ago

Yes. Timeline: * Russia wins within the next year and divides East and West Ukraine * West Ukraine joins NATO, powder keg is set * Massive arms buildups like we have never seen in history on both sides * Within 5 years, Russia attacks West Ukraine, China attacks Taiwan, and it's on

pbak 3y ago
Except that Russian officials up and down the flagpole - including the head honcho just this week - have very clearly and publicly said they'd rather that Poland, Romania and Hungary split up the Western half, and deal with the rebellious Galicians than them. They don't want the headache and would be rather content to stop their efforts at Kharkhiv-Odessa line (if that's even possible to achieve for them, of course).
- fifilura 3y ago
  If I recall correctly they attacked and tried to surround Kyiv.

mytailorisrich 3y ago

No, this does not make sense. Both sides know the limit not to cross. Certainly, Russia is in fact rather weak (which the author of the article acknowledges) as we've seen, and knows not to attack Nato. In addition, point 4 in the article does not make much sense. Why would a Russian victory 'encourage' mainland China to invade Taiwan, for instance? It wouldn't change anything there. To me this feels like a typical scaremongering piece for the purpose of shoring up support for Ukraine when it is said to be somewhat waning but it fails to make good points.

kdwikzncba 3y ago
Also, Russia doesn't have nukes, common misconception
- sam_bristow 3y ago
  Huh? The Russian Federation absolutely does have nuclear weapons. 5,889 warheads, more than the USA in terms of raw numbers.
- mtmail 3y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_arsenal_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_des...
derstander 3y ago
> In addition, point 4 in the article does not make much sense. Why would a Russian victory 'encourage' mainland China to invade Taiwan, for instance? It wouldn't change anything there. Point 4 makes sense to me — though I’m certainly no expert in international affairs. What it says to me is something about the world as a whole rather than something particularly about China and Taiwan. It says that the powers that be who are interested in maintaining the status quo in the world are either unwilling or unable to enforce continuing adherence to it. That could certainly embolden countries that are unhappy with the status quo but have until now been unwilling to challenge it.