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"I don't want to stand up in front of X number of people and tell them stuff they already know." A topic that is always safe is "I used technologies X, Y, and
by jeffdavis 15y ago
"I don't want to stand up in front of X number of people and tell them stuff they already know."
A topic that is always safe is "I used technologies X, Y, and Z to build this thing, and here's what I learned along the way". It's usually a little more entertaining because it's a story (often with a few funny anecdotes); and you're admitting that you didn't do everything perfectly from the start, so being wrong somewhere during the presentation isn't a deficit. Being wrong really only matters in a persuasive talk.
(Aside: it's pretty well established that teaching is one of the most effective ways to learn deeply.)
I'm sure you can find better speaking advice elsewhere, but one other thing I should mention: especially at user groups, a talk is just to start a conversation, which will often be held at a bar later. So don't worry about concluding anything in a profound way.
As for location, then yes, living within driving distance of the SF bay area helped me a lot. But I didn't begin speaking until I moved to Portland, Oregon, where I regularly attended a user group. I'd like to think that a lot of other areas have something to offer as well, but I'm sure it takes more searching.