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The economics of Falcon 9 do suggest that it currently is a lot worse than space shuttle on cost per unit of mass to orbit, and that the promise of cheaper laun

The economics of Falcon 9 do suggest that it currently is a lot worse than space shuttle on cost per unit of mass to orbit, and that the promise of cheaper launches due to reusability has not happened. Sure, the rockets are somewhat reusable (with a lot of reconditioning, it seems), but that definitely hasn't translated to lower costs to orbit.

epups 3y ago
"Somewhat reusable"? One Falcon 9 has already flown a record 18 times!
adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
What are you talking about? According to NASA (https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20200001093.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20...) Falcon 9 is 20x cheaper than the space shuttle in terms of $/kg to LEO
bryanlarsen 3y ago
Space shuttle cost $54,500 per kg to orbit, Falcon 9 costs $2720 per kg to orbit. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093 https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093
- modeless 3y ago
  Yeah even if there's an order of magnitude error in those calculations Falcon 9 still comes out on top. Plus, the proof is in the pudding, SpaceX is launching more frequently and putting more mass into orbit than anyone else. They could never afford it if Falcon 9 was more expensive than the Shuttle. It's crazy the mental gymnastics people will do once they've decided to hate someone.
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  Ah yes, the one NASA paper that Musk fans love to cite, including all of Space shuttle's R&D costs and a very low estimate of the Falcon 9 cost. Falcon 9 launches currently sell for about $80k per kg to LEO.
  - Closi 3y ago
    I don't think that includes all of the Space Shuttle's R&D costs - those are more like $50 billion in 2023 money. The actual paper says "Total cost per launch". Besides, Nasa doesn't uses SpaceX because they are secretly a bunch of Musk fanboi's... I suspect they are actually cheaper!
  - snovv_crash 3y ago
    Until there is competition or they aren't filling their rockets anymore SpaceX has no reason to lower it further.
    - Fatnino 3y ago
      Exactly. They don't need to sell at cost, they just need to slightly underbid the competition. Which they've executed perfectly. EU has no flying rockets right now and Ariane6 is basically DOA if it ever gets over the finish line. ULA has launched only 3 rockets this year. SpaceX has eaten the entire western launch market by simply pricing their launches slightly below legacy prices. And at the same time they give themselves (starlink) the at-cost price so no one can compete with them there either. Maybe Jeffery Bezos and his deep pocket book will eventually present some competition, but Blue will be fighting headwinds the entire way down to the bottom price. SpaceX has this down pat and BO will be learning on the go. Any price improvement BO makes for years to come can be matched effortlessly by SpX. The only other plausible challenger is China, but those launches are not really available to the west.
      - Gud 3y ago
        Don’t forget Rocket Lab.
        Fatnino 3y ago
        RL's current offering is a smaller rocket. There are a handful of small launcher companies out there, but I was talking about the launching of big payloads. Rocket Lab has plans to enter that category too, but hasn't flown anything yet.
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epups 3y ago

"Somewhat reusable"? One Falcon 9 has already flown a record 18 times!

adgjlsfhk1 3y ago

What are you talking about? According to NASA (https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20200001093.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20200001093/downloads/20...) Falcon 9 is 20x cheaper than the space shuttle in terms of $/kg to LEO

bryanlarsen 3y ago

Space shuttle cost $54,500 per kg to orbit, Falcon 9 costs $2720 per kg to orbit. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093 https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20200001093

modeless 3y ago
Yeah even if there's an order of magnitude error in those calculations Falcon 9 still comes out on top. Plus, the proof is in the pudding, SpaceX is launching more frequently and putting more mass into orbit than anyone else. They could never afford it if Falcon 9 was more expensive than the Shuttle. It's crazy the mental gymnastics people will do once they've decided to hate someone.
pclmulqdq 3y ago
Ah yes, the one NASA paper that Musk fans love to cite, including all of Space shuttle's R&D costs and a very low estimate of the Falcon 9 cost. Falcon 9 launches currently sell for about $80k per kg to LEO.
- Closi 3y ago
  I don't think that includes all of the Space Shuttle's R&D costs - those are more like $50 billion in 2023 money. The actual paper says "Total cost per launch". Besides, Nasa doesn't uses SpaceX because they are secretly a bunch of Musk fanboi's... I suspect they are actually cheaper!
- snovv_crash 3y ago
  Until there is competition or they aren't filling their rockets anymore SpaceX has no reason to lower it further.
  - Fatnino 3y ago
    Exactly. They don't need to sell at cost, they just need to slightly underbid the competition. Which they've executed perfectly. EU has no flying rockets right now and Ariane6 is basically DOA if it ever gets over the finish line. ULA has launched only 3 rockets this year. SpaceX has eaten the entire western launch market by simply pricing their launches slightly below legacy prices. And at the same time they give themselves (starlink) the at-cost price so no one can compete with them there either. Maybe Jeffery Bezos and his deep pocket book will eventually present some competition, but Blue will be fighting headwinds the entire way down to the bottom price. SpaceX has this down pat and BO will be learning on the go. Any price improvement BO makes for years to come can be matched effortlessly by SpX. The only other plausible challenger is China, but those launches are not really available to the west.
    - Gud 3y ago
      Don’t forget Rocket Lab.
      - Fatnino 3y ago
        RL's current offering is a smaller rocket. There are a handful of small launcher companies out there, but I was talking about the launching of big payloads. Rocket Lab has plans to enter that category too, but hasn't flown anything yet.

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