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Is there anyone here with relevant expertise who can tell us: Are the Red Sea attacks are a relatively minor, temporary hiccup? Or can they lead to another glo
by cs702 3y ago
Is there anyone here with relevant expertise who can tell us: Are the Red Sea attacks are a relatively minor, temporary hiccup?
Or can they lead to another global wave of supply-chain disruptions, like the those we experienced during the pandemic?
There's lots of evidence that the pandemic's supply-chain disruptions triggered inflation, and we're still fighting it.
I'm not looking for predictions. I'm more interested in an informed assessment of the risks.
- bozhark 3y agoWhere’s the flexport people when you need them?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- matthewowen 3y agohttps://twitter.com/flexport/status/1737874384982069746 https://twitter.com/flexport/status/1737874384982069746 They have a webinar about it. Ryan (@typesfast) has also been tweeting about it a bunch.
- cs702 3y agoThank you for the link to that short video. I watched it. Reading between the lines, my take-away is: Both shipping times and costs are rising.
- xuki 3y ago> Both shipping times and costs are rising. It’s usually positively correlated. Longer shipping time means more demands for ships and there aren’t unlimited amount of ships.
- seandoe 3y agoPeter Zeihan analysis from a couple weeks ago: https://youtu.be/WJE7g08NldQ https://youtu.be/WJE7g08NldQ
- oldpersonintx 3y agoIs it as accurate as his numerous predictions of China and Russia both facing imminent collapse?
- alephnerd 3y agoYes. Source: used to work in the policy space
- alephnerd 3y agoAs I've said a thousand times - stop listening to Zeihan. He's a quack. In my policy days, we never listened to the Stratfor guys.
- JumpCrisscross 3y agoTo back this up, Stratfor is the Zero Hedge of geopolitics.
- csomar 3y agoNot really. My guess is that this will be resolved through a combination of re-routing, new players (friendly to the Persians/Houthis) who will take advantage, and a bit of higher prices or some delay. The two big regional players (Saudi Arabia, UAE) are ignoring this because they made their deals already.
- Waterluvian 3y agoOr the U.S. unloads cruise missiles on Houthi locations like last time and business returns to normal.
- kevin_thibedeau 3y agoIt baffles me that they still have a helicopter that's being actively used for piracy. Seems like that should be number one on the target list.
- smashah 3y ago[flagged]
- s1artibartfast 3y agoGaza isn't in Yemen so it is not self defense
- smashah 3y ago[flagged]
- ceejayoz 3y ago> Maybe freedom and sovereignty haters might disagree but Yemen has the right to control what goes through their own waters. The Houthis aren't the recognized sovereign government of Yemen, though. International law doesn't grant them those rights over the strait, either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_passage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_passage
- jt2190 3y agoI’m not an expert by any means, but futures prices are basically the sum opinion of traders about how much money it’ll take to ship things in the future, and some portion of that price is the cost of dealing with that extra risk. Here’s a link to another index that tracks prices. Not sure if it’s a good one for this purpose — there are many others. https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/world-container-index-weekly-update/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/world-contain...