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"soft landing" After three years of constant inflation and shrinkflation on the majority of products you buy? - a family size of cookies used to be 17.2oz, it

"soft landing" After three years of constant inflation and shrinkflation on the majority of products you buy? - a family size of cookies used to be 17.2oz, its now 14.6oz for the same price - laundry detergent scent enhancer - 13oz to 10oz and increased in price - a pack of frozen burritos went from 20 items to 18 for the same price - baby wipes in a smaller sized package and they increased in price - OJ went from a half gallon (64oz) to under a half gallon (59oz) for the same price - many milk manufacturers have trimmed down their half gallon to slightly under a half gallon while keeping the price the same. - snack crackers like wheat thins went from a pound for a family sized box to 14oz Color me skeptical. I've seen this movie before it always ends in a painful recession.

tmaly 3y ago
You have to also factor in the shrinkflation of 2008 banking crisis to get a full picture of what they took from us.
stevenwoo 3y ago
I picked up some staples today and for some items prices almost doubled even at Costco and the price is stuck there now, the three pack of half gallon lactate free milk and two dozen white eggs.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
I saw predictions of >10% unemployment, stock market down 50%, GDP contraction of 10%, etc.
fshbbdssbbgdd 3y ago
I don’t know exactly what 3 year span your refer to, but the median wage increased 15% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2023.
hervature 3y ago
CPI adjusts prices on a per weight or per volume basis. Shrinkflation is definitely captured in the official metrics. The hidden inflation is in the service industry where it is impossible to capture whether or not your dentist gives you a toothbrush now or not. Or if you get a free smile with your Big Mac. This is what I call skimpflation but I think some people use it interchangeably with shrinkflation. Inflation is also always "constant" in the sense that the government wants to target a constant 2% inflation rate. I think you meant to say "constantly high". Regardless, I agree with your sentiment that inflation is still above the 2% target and may prove to be sticky as incomes need to rise to meet the inflation we saw over the past 3 years. My prediction is that we'll be at 5% rates plus quantitative tightening for at least another full year. If they start doing rate cuts, I think we'll start going above 3% inflation and then the Fed has the tough job of taking the fruit punch bowl away from a market which thinks the party is just getting started. Going into an election year, that becomes politically difficult regardless of what they do.
- ClumsyPilot 3y ago
  > CPI adjusts prices on a per weight or per volume basis CPI also adjutsta for quality and performance - if iPad 2 is twice better than iPad 1, but costs the same, CPI will show -50%. If asbestos was banned in buildings, CPI for construction could be negative even if prices increase. Not the best link, but you can find more on this easilly: https://www.cultofmac.com/85778/federal-reserve-president-criticized-for-let-them-eat-ipad-comment/ https://www.cultofmac.com/85778/federal-reserve-president-cr...
  - hervature 3y ago
    You are correct. What I was trying to drive at is that utility for many things does not really get inflated/deflated on pre-defined metrics. In your iPad example, what's the inflator coefficient to use when going from TouchID to FaceID. It's subjective.
dxbydt 3y ago
Am not into expensive things, but I do enjoy a pack of jarlsberg with smoked salmon once a week. Before the pandemic, I splurged $20 for a satisfying portion of both. But nowadays the portion size has gotten really small for the same price :(
standardUser 3y ago
The only time you've "seen this before" would have been in the 1970's and inflation then was much higher for much longer than we've endured in recent years.
oooyay 3y ago
I'm probably biased but in 2008 I couldn't get a job (as a junior), dropped out of college, defaulted on debt(s), and joined the military during a time of war. I watched as friends/former colleagues/neighbors lost their homes, those who didn't went through an utter spiderweb of decision making of who to send the check to. For me, personally, it's hard to compare this to 2008/9. As far as I'm aware, greedflation (what you're describing) is what happens during a recession and a soft-landing is still a recession.
- jwtorres 3y ago
  This is interesting. Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage. I do agree that a soft landing is still a recession. But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be.
  - oooyay 3y ago
    > Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage. I think Dodd-Frank addressed this, but maybe it was some legislation after. I think they made ACH details transferrable and padded payment windows iirc. > But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be. Yeah, definitely, but that's why they crank the interest rate through the ceiling. People that are cash heavy could come up quite a bit if left uninhibited. Of course, they can still do that, but not in a property acquisition kind of way.
    - jwtorres 3y ago
      >that's why they crank the interest rate through the ceiling. People that are cash heavy could come up quite a bit if left uninhibited Can you clarify?
      - oooyay 3y ago
        This is a very layman's understanding, so take it with a grain of salt. If you have a ton of cash on hand when markets go to shit and interest rates go through the roof you suddenly have something no one else does: cash on hand that was traded when that dollar was worth less. When you buy property or stock with that money, you've effectively bought it at a hefty discount. When the markets and interest rates normalize again you stand to make huge gains. They lock up financing to put a cap on growing inflation, but that same cap stops people from taking advantage of the market and thereby continuing inflation through a new avenue.
throwawayqe 3y ago
[flagged]
ajross 3y ago
> After three years of constant inflation It was like a 14 month burst, and it's been over since last summer. Here's the chart: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri... And yes, it includes changes in package size. I genuinely don't understand the doomslinging impulse on this. It's like people actually want inflation to be worse than it actually was, as if it makes them Right on the Internet or something. But it's wrong. You're wrong.

tmaly 3y ago

You have to also factor in the shrinkflation of 2008 banking crisis to get a full picture of what they took from us.

stevenwoo 3y ago

I picked up some staples today and for some items prices almost doubled even at Costco and the price is stuck there now, the three pack of half gallon lactate free milk and two dozen white eggs.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

I saw predictions of >10% unemployment, stock market down 50%, GDP contraction of 10%, etc.

fshbbdssbbgdd 3y ago

I don’t know exactly what 3 year span your refer to, but the median wage increased 15% from Q1 2020 to Q1 2023.

hervature 3y ago

CPI adjusts prices on a per weight or per volume basis. Shrinkflation is definitely captured in the official metrics. The hidden inflation is in the service industry where it is impossible to capture whether or not your dentist gives you a toothbrush now or not. Or if you get a free smile with your Big Mac. This is what I call skimpflation but I think some people use it interchangeably with shrinkflation. Inflation is also always "constant" in the sense that the government wants to target a constant 2% inflation rate. I think you meant to say "constantly high". Regardless, I agree with your sentiment that inflation is still above the 2% target and may prove to be sticky as incomes need to rise to meet the inflation we saw over the past 3 years. My prediction is that we'll be at 5% rates plus quantitative tightening for at least another full year. If they start doing rate cuts, I think we'll start going above 3% inflation and then the Fed has the tough job of taking the fruit punch bowl away from a market which thinks the party is just getting started. Going into an election year, that becomes politically difficult regardless of what they do.

ClumsyPilot 3y ago
> CPI adjusts prices on a per weight or per volume basis CPI also adjutsta for quality and performance - if iPad 2 is twice better than iPad 1, but costs the same, CPI will show -50%. If asbestos was banned in buildings, CPI for construction could be negative even if prices increase. Not the best link, but you can find more on this easilly: https://www.cultofmac.com/85778/federal-reserve-president-criticized-for-let-them-eat-ipad-comment/ https://www.cultofmac.com/85778/federal-reserve-president-cr...
- hervature 3y ago
  You are correct. What I was trying to drive at is that utility for many things does not really get inflated/deflated on pre-defined metrics. In your iPad example, what's the inflator coefficient to use when going from TouchID to FaceID. It's subjective.

dxbydt 3y ago

Am not into expensive things, but I do enjoy a pack of jarlsberg with smoked salmon once a week. Before the pandemic, I splurged $20 for a satisfying portion of both. But nowadays the portion size has gotten really small for the same price :(

standardUser 3y ago

The only time you've "seen this before" would have been in the 1970's and inflation then was much higher for much longer than we've endured in recent years.

oooyay 3y ago

I'm probably biased but in 2008 I couldn't get a job (as a junior), dropped out of college, defaulted on debt(s), and joined the military during a time of war. I watched as friends/former colleagues/neighbors lost their homes, those who didn't went through an utter spiderweb of decision making of who to send the check to. For me, personally, it's hard to compare this to 2008/9. As far as I'm aware, greedflation (what you're describing) is what happens during a recession and a soft-landing is still a recession.

jwtorres 3y ago
This is interesting. Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage. I do agree that a soft landing is still a recession. But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be.
- oooyay 3y ago
  > Never thought about how confusing it would be when banks start playing musical chairs with your mortgage. I think Dodd-Frank addressed this, but maybe it was some legislation after. I think they made ACH details transferrable and padded payment windows iirc. > But the more people that realize that, the less soft the landing might be. Yeah, definitely, but that's why they crank the interest rate through the ceiling. People that are cash heavy could come up quite a bit if left uninhibited. Of course, they can still do that, but not in a property acquisition kind of way.
  - jwtorres 3y ago
    >that's why they crank the interest rate through the ceiling. People that are cash heavy could come up quite a bit if left uninhibited Can you clarify?
    - oooyay 3y ago
      This is a very layman's understanding, so take it with a grain of salt. If you have a ton of cash on hand when markets go to shit and interest rates go through the roof you suddenly have something no one else does: cash on hand that was traded when that dollar was worth less. When you buy property or stock with that money, you've effectively bought it at a hefty discount. When the markets and interest rates normalize again you stand to make huge gains. They lock up financing to put a cap on growing inflation, but that same cap stops people from taking advantage of the market and thereby continuing inflation through a new avenue.

throwawayqe 3y ago

[flagged]

ajross 3y ago

> After three years of constant inflation It was like a 14 month burst, and it's been over since last summer. Here's the chart: https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri... And yes, it includes changes in package size. I genuinely don't understand the doomslinging impulse on this. It's like people actually want inflation to be worse than it actually was, as if it makes them Right on the Internet or something. But it's wrong. You're wrong.