6 ms·

It’s so weird to me that the labor story seems to leave out that 1m people died in the pandemic and also the largest generation in history is retiring.

by bhpm 3y ago

runsWphotons 3y ago
The people who died would have mostly been retired or lower productivity. Shouldnt impact labor costs much. Age pyramid definitely would though.
- bhpm 3y ago
  > Johnson took excess deaths and COVID deaths by age and applied labor force participation rates by age. And he got 300,000 workers who died as a result of COVID. Add that to the long-haul workers, and we’ve lost 1.9 million workers — or 18% of currently unfilled jobs. Note: most of those long-haulers have recovered, but I suspect that a great many of those didn’t recover back to their original job. That means during the time they were disabled, they had to be replaced, possibly at a higher wage. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-...
  - runsWphotons 3y ago
    I am pretty dubious of this based on the age distribution of deaths (most were over 65 and 50-65 is the only bracket with large numbers who werent below retirement age--average is 61) but thank you for providing a counter argument with data.
- hnbad 3y ago
  Long COVID would, though. And if people who would mostly have been retired or lower productivity are more likely to die and children don't contribute to the labor force in most of the US, long COVID would affect working age people primarily, no?
  - mcpackieh 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - hnbad 3y ago
      [flagged]
    - bhpm 3y ago
      Does it occur more often in those cohorts, or are those cohorts more likely to be in contact with medical professionals who will take them seriously? https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/black-hispanic-people-may-be-more-likely-have-long-covid-not-be-diagnosed https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/black-hispanic-people-ma...
      - mcpackieh 3y ago
        That data come from surveying people directly, not data aggregated through medical professionals. So no, your supposition is incorrect. Transgender people really do report a 4x higher rate of severe long covid symptoms as "cisgendered" people. That's according to their own answers to surveys, not according to doctors. If you think the result is anomalous, then explain why transgender sufferers of severe long covid are more likely to respond to surveys than any other sufferer of severe long covid. Response to hnbad's flagged response: "people who believe long COVID is a thing are more likely to seek out a long COVID diagnosis whereas those believing it's not a thing are more likely to "push through" and remain undiagnosed even when their condition may be severe and debilitating." Real and earnest "severe and debilitating" afflictions aren't something you can successfully "push through" and remain productive with. If you can push through them, and evidently most of the working class can, then at the very least it's certainly not as severe and debilitating as advertised. Some people may earnestly have some mild lingering fatigue issues, as is the case after any viral infection, but that's about it. However that doesn't make severe disabling long covid, the sort that would actually hurt the economy, a hoax. There is a difference between a hoax and delusion. A hoax is a falsehood promulgated by somebody who knows it isn't true. Long covid is a hysteria promulgated by people who earnestly believe it is true, to their own detriment.
killingtime74 3y ago
1m is worldwide right? I see excess deaths for US for the entire pandemic is around 470k. The US population grew 1.5 million just from July '22 to July '23. This is apparently above trend. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-population-growth-census/ https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-populatio... Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
- skygazer 3y ago
  I think it was over a million just in the US just based on reported cause on death certificates. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- tekla 3y ago
  I'm going to guess you didn't read your own sources > The raw death count gives us a sense of scale: for example, the US suffered roughly 470,000 excess deaths in 2020, compared to 352,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that year. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home Total Deaths 1,159,864 That roughly tracks.
  - killingtime74 3y ago
    However that two years of excess mortality is still less than one year of population growth. How do you answer that
    - dehugger 3y ago
      Babies don't work in grocery stores.
      - 3y ago
vondur 3y ago
I was under the assumption that the majority of people dying were at the 50+ age range. So not as many people that were employed.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  Outside of software developers (more specifically, software developers in the Bay Area), most people work waaaaay past 50. At least 10 more years, and more than a few are probably going 15-20.
elijah_moham 3y ago
[flagged]

It’s so weird to me that the labor story seems to leave out that 1m people died in the pandemic and also the largest generation in history is retiring.

by bhpm 3y ago

It’s so weird to me that the labor story seems to leave out that 1m people died in the pandemic and also the largest generation in history is retiring.

runsWphotons 3y ago

The people who died would have mostly been retired or lower productivity. Shouldnt impact labor costs much. Age pyramid definitely would though.

bhpm 3y ago
> Johnson took excess deaths and COVID deaths by age and applied labor force participation rates by age. And he got 300,000 workers who died as a result of COVID. Add that to the long-haul workers, and we’ve lost 1.9 million workers — or 18% of currently unfilled jobs. Note: most of those long-haulers have recovered, but I suspect that a great many of those didn’t recover back to their original job. That means during the time they were disabled, they had to be replaced, possibly at a higher wage. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-...
- runsWphotons 3y ago
  I am pretty dubious of this based on the age distribution of deaths (most were over 65 and 50-65 is the only bracket with large numbers who werent below retirement age--average is 61) but thank you for providing a counter argument with data.
hnbad 3y ago
Long COVID would, though. And if people who would mostly have been retired or lower productivity are more likely to die and children don't contribute to the labor force in most of the US, long COVID would affect working age people primarily, no?
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - hnbad 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - bhpm 3y ago
    Does it occur more often in those cohorts, or are those cohorts more likely to be in contact with medical professionals who will take them seriously? https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/black-hispanic-people-may-be-more-likely-have-long-covid-not-be-diagnosed https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/black-hispanic-people-ma...
    - mcpackieh 3y ago
      That data come from surveying people directly, not data aggregated through medical professionals. So no, your supposition is incorrect. Transgender people really do report a 4x higher rate of severe long covid symptoms as "cisgendered" people. That's according to their own answers to surveys, not according to doctors. If you think the result is anomalous, then explain why transgender sufferers of severe long covid are more likely to respond to surveys than any other sufferer of severe long covid. Response to hnbad's flagged response: "people who believe long COVID is a thing are more likely to seek out a long COVID diagnosis whereas those believing it's not a thing are more likely to "push through" and remain undiagnosed even when their condition may be severe and debilitating." Real and earnest "severe and debilitating" afflictions aren't something you can successfully "push through" and remain productive with. If you can push through them, and evidently most of the working class can, then at the very least it's certainly not as severe and debilitating as advertised. Some people may earnestly have some mild lingering fatigue issues, as is the case after any viral infection, but that's about it. However that doesn't make severe disabling long covid, the sort that would actually hurt the economy, a hoax. There is a difference between a hoax and delusion. A hoax is a falsehood promulgated by somebody who knows it isn't true. Long covid is a hysteria promulgated by people who earnestly believe it is true, to their own detriment.

killingtime74 3y ago

1m is worldwide right? I see excess deaths for US for the entire pandemic is around 470k. The US population grew 1.5 million just from July '22 to July '23. This is apparently above trend. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-population-growth-census/ https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/19/texas-2023-populatio... Ref: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

skygazer 3y ago
I think it was over a million just in the US just based on reported cause on death certificates. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/mortality-overview.htm
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
tekla 3y ago
I'm going to guess you didn't read your own sources > The raw death count gives us a sense of scale: for example, the US suffered roughly 470,000 excess deaths in 2020, compared to 352,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that year. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home Total Deaths 1,159,864 That roughly tracks.
- killingtime74 3y ago
  However that two years of excess mortality is still less than one year of population growth. How do you answer that
  - dehugger 3y ago
    Babies don't work in grocery stores.
    - 3y ago

vondur 3y ago

I was under the assumption that the majority of people dying were at the 50+ age range. So not as many people that were employed.

rootusrootus 3y ago
Outside of software developers (more specifically, software developers in the Bay Area), most people work waaaaay past 50. At least 10 more years, and more than a few are probably going 15-20.

elijah_moham 3y ago

[flagged]