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This comparison doesn't make sense because it's not possible to calculate the true number of crimes prevented. Extrapolating crime numbers from a prior year to
by MichaelZuo 3y ago
This comparison doesn't make sense because it's not possible to calculate the true number of crimes prevented.
Extrapolating crime numbers from a prior year to the counterfactual only works if every single aspect of society remained identical in every way from year to year, which is never the case.
- malfist 3y agoSure, you can't say with certainty that this preventes X crimes. But that doesn't mean you can't measure anything. Last year's numbers and the trajectory of the last few years gives you everything you need to make a judgement. This is talked about in the article.
- MichaelZuo 3y agoHow would you calculate 'the trajectory of the last few years' if you can't calculate the true numbers for any 1 year span of time since the first year of records?