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California can power about half of their homes with batteries for 4 hours. https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2023-10/california-sees-unprecedented-growth-energy-st

California can power about half of their homes with batteries for 4 hours. https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2023-10/california-sees-unprecedented-growth-energy-storage-key-component-states-clean https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2023-10/california-sees-unpre... That is certainly hugely significant, and does spell an end of peaker plants in the next decade. What it doesn't do is explain what is going to be the backup for long tail events where there's not enough sun or wind for days or weeks at a time.

hotpotamus 3y ago
> What it doesn't do is explain what is going to be the backup for long tail events where there's not enough sun or wind for days or weeks at a time. Oh I have the answer to this one as someone who lived in Texas in February 2021 - you just don't have power; that happens sometimes.
- anonporridge 3y ago
  That will always be a possibility when systems fail, like it did during Texas winter storm. If masses of people not having power sometimes is a fundamental part of the system design and not an extreme systemic failure, then that's completely unacceptable.
  - hotpotamus 3y ago
    Ok, how often does California (or the US as a whole if we were going to do a nationwide system, or North America, or The Americas, etc....) go for weeks without sun or wind? I would think those could be known via historical data and used to model a system that works except in extreme situations.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      That data is known and we don't have any practical solutions for making a system that works under the expected conditions. This is what bothers some people.
      - hotpotamus 3y ago
        I don't know the data - I was surprised to learn that half of California can run on batteries for 4 hours; that's actually impressive at present. I keep hearing about how we need some sort of dues ex machina innovation to save us from climate change. Given the impressive improvements on renewable energy and battery storage, doesn't it seem likely that they are the best hope for such innovation? To be clear, when I look at the data regarding carbon emissions and the implications there, I'm reasonably sure human civilization is boned, but is there any better hope than renewables? It doesn't seem like we ever really figured out nuclear. I've been hearing about how thorium reactors are some magic solution for maybe 20 years now, but you'd think that there would have been some progress on them somewhere in the world if they were really so helpful.
      - adrianN 3y ago
        Of course we have practical solutions. A combination of batteries and hydrogen is a well known and practical solution to the storage problem.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    I think it is actually quite an interesting question, and not at all a given that outages and brownouts are unacceptable. Living in California, I already have the expectation that my power can go out for days, because it does. We also have experience with rolling blackouts, which were annoying but not that big of a deal. The real question is how often the public would put up with this.
Manuel_D 3y ago
Residential electricity use accounts for only 35% of electricity use: https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/built-environment/residential-buildings-factsheet#:~:text=Energy%20Use%20(See%20U.S.%20Energy%20System%20Factsheet)&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20residential%20sector,of%20U.S.%20total%20electricity%20use https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/built-environm....

hotpotamus 3y ago

> What it doesn't do is explain what is going to be the backup for long tail events where there's not enough sun or wind for days or weeks at a time. Oh I have the answer to this one as someone who lived in Texas in February 2021 - you just don't have power; that happens sometimes.

anonporridge 3y ago
That will always be a possibility when systems fail, like it did during Texas winter storm. If masses of people not having power sometimes is a fundamental part of the system design and not an extreme systemic failure, then that's completely unacceptable.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  Ok, how often does California (or the US as a whole if we were going to do a nationwide system, or North America, or The Americas, etc....) go for weeks without sun or wind? I would think those could be known via historical data and used to model a system that works except in extreme situations.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    That data is known and we don't have any practical solutions for making a system that works under the expected conditions. This is what bothers some people.
    - hotpotamus 3y ago
      I don't know the data - I was surprised to learn that half of California can run on batteries for 4 hours; that's actually impressive at present. I keep hearing about how we need some sort of dues ex machina innovation to save us from climate change. Given the impressive improvements on renewable energy and battery storage, doesn't it seem likely that they are the best hope for such innovation? To be clear, when I look at the data regarding carbon emissions and the implications there, I'm reasonably sure human civilization is boned, but is there any better hope than renewables? It doesn't seem like we ever really figured out nuclear. I've been hearing about how thorium reactors are some magic solution for maybe 20 years now, but you'd think that there would have been some progress on them somewhere in the world if they were really so helpful.
    - adrianN 3y ago
      Of course we have practical solutions. A combination of batteries and hydrogen is a well known and practical solution to the storage problem.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  I think it is actually quite an interesting question, and not at all a given that outages and brownouts are unacceptable. Living in California, I already have the expectation that my power can go out for days, because it does. We also have experience with rolling blackouts, which were annoying but not that big of a deal. The real question is how often the public would put up with this.

Manuel_D 3y ago

Residential electricity use accounts for only 35% of electricity use: https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/built-environment/residential-buildings-factsheet#:~:text=Energy%20Use%20(See%20U.S.%20Energy%20System%20Factsheet)&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20residential%20sector,of%20U.S.%20total%20electricity%20use https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/built-environm....