3 ms·

Ordinary neurotypical drivers act "unexpectedly" on the road all the time. I know that I would brake if I saw a downed branch. And people do much much much more

Ordinary neurotypical drivers act "unexpectedly" on the road all the time. I know that I would brake if I saw a downed branch. And people do much much much more. Suddenly change lanes on the highway with no signaling? Check. Brake suddenly because you almost missed your turn without looking to see if anybody was following close behind? Check. Drive over non-lane portions of the road because you were late seeing your highway exit? Check. Swerve suddenly because you dropped your phone between the seats while texting? Check. I've seen people reverse up a highway onramp.

wddkcs 3y ago
I think both points are true- people act unexpectedly all the time, so much so that we've come to expect the unexpected, by the sophistication of our theory of mind. I live in a city where erratic driving is commonplace, but that's in relation to the legal norms. New local norms become accepted, which you can anticipate once you adapt. Some of these 'norms' are handy time savers, others are incredibly dangerous and result in frequent accidents, but persist anyway. How will AI drivers navigate these 'cultural' differences? Will they insist on following the letter of the law (presumably, for liability) or will they adapt to local practices and potentially lower their overall collision rate with humans driving poorly. Interesting near term question.
- droopyEyelids 3y ago
  You’re being selectively reductive. The unexpected is, by definition, what was not predicted.
  - pastage 3y ago
    The point is unexpected is supposed to be in norm, self driving cars can not tell what a norm is. The idiom is not about the word unexpected, more about the relatioship between chaos and order
jjav 3y ago
> Ordinary neurotypical drivers act "unexpectedly" on the road all the time. "all the time" means it is not unexpected. Humans do mistakes and omissions that you've subconsciously learned that humans do, so you can adjust to deal with that. The difficulty with AI is that it behaves like a completely alien being, making errors that are alien and unpredictable to a human driver.
- UncleMeat 3y ago
  Each individual behavior is indeed unexpected. When I go through an intersection I don't expect that somebody blows through a red light and t-bones me. But that does happen. Perhaps a self driving car's unexpected behavior is on the "too defensive" side while human drivers are on the "suddenly do something wildly dangerous" but this is easier to account for as a driver rather than more difficult to account for.
  - alehlopeh 3y ago
    You don’t expect that someone will blow through a red light, but you expect that they could, and so you look both ways before you accelerate if you’re the first one waiting when the light turns green. You wouldn’t expect someone to suddenly accelerate from a stop while they have a red light, so you don’t typically look both ways when driving through a light that has already been green for a while when there are cars on either side waiting. I’m not saying Waymo cars do that; just an example of expected unexpected vs unexpected unexpected behavior.
- richbell 3y ago
  > "all the time" means it is not unexpected. Humans do mistakes and omissions that you've subconsciously learned that humans do, so you can adjust to deal with that. For example, just because someone has their turn signal on and is slowing down doesn't mean they're going to turn.
- true_religion 3y ago
  Alien and unpredictable until we have enough experience with them to know their edge cases. From my experience with LLMs, AIs even when called to be creative are fairly consistent, even if at first they seem to be producing output that’s more creative than human norms.
patmorgan23 3y ago
The question is how different is the set of unexpected things humans do from the set of unexpected things waymo/autopilots do/will do. Also sometimes I can intuit that the driver in front of me is probably going to do something dumb because of other minor things I've observed about their driving style.
cyanydeez 3y ago
the swarm doesn't though. I can rely on most drivers to avoid black swan events
- shadowgovt 3y ago
  But unlike an automated vehicle, when a black swan event does occur in a human driver you can't disassemble their thought process, correct it, and apply that correction to all other human drivers unfortunately.
  - cyanydeez 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - bumby 3y ago
      Maybe not the programmer (unless we get to position where they are licensed like other engineering disciplines), but we can hold a company liable. Some companies have already stated they will accept "full liability" [1]. That reference is nearly a decade old, and some companies have admitted AV is a much harder problem than they initially anticipated, so I'm wondering if they would walk that statement back now. [1] https://www.motortrend.com/news/volvo-will-accept-full-liability-for-its-autonomous-vehicles/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/volvo-will-accept-full-liabi...
      - cyanydeez 3y ago
        right, but as far as I know, non of the current self driving testbeds are actively insured and liable. maybe it's under reported, but if you used FEMA value of life, you should have seen multiple million dollar payouts.

wddkcs 3y ago

I think both points are true- people act unexpectedly all the time, so much so that we've come to expect the unexpected, by the sophistication of our theory of mind. I live in a city where erratic driving is commonplace, but that's in relation to the legal norms. New local norms become accepted, which you can anticipate once you adapt. Some of these 'norms' are handy time savers, others are incredibly dangerous and result in frequent accidents, but persist anyway. How will AI drivers navigate these 'cultural' differences? Will they insist on following the letter of the law (presumably, for liability) or will they adapt to local practices and potentially lower their overall collision rate with humans driving poorly. Interesting near term question.

droopyEyelids 3y ago
You’re being selectively reductive. The unexpected is, by definition, what was not predicted.
- pastage 3y ago
  The point is unexpected is supposed to be in norm, self driving cars can not tell what a norm is. The idiom is not about the word unexpected, more about the relatioship between chaos and order

jjav 3y ago

> Ordinary neurotypical drivers act "unexpectedly" on the road all the time. "all the time" means it is not unexpected. Humans do mistakes and omissions that you've subconsciously learned that humans do, so you can adjust to deal with that. The difficulty with AI is that it behaves like a completely alien being, making errors that are alien and unpredictable to a human driver.

UncleMeat 3y ago
Each individual behavior is indeed unexpected. When I go through an intersection I don't expect that somebody blows through a red light and t-bones me. But that does happen. Perhaps a self driving car's unexpected behavior is on the "too defensive" side while human drivers are on the "suddenly do something wildly dangerous" but this is easier to account for as a driver rather than more difficult to account for.
- alehlopeh 3y ago
  You don’t expect that someone will blow through a red light, but you expect that they could, and so you look both ways before you accelerate if you’re the first one waiting when the light turns green. You wouldn’t expect someone to suddenly accelerate from a stop while they have a red light, so you don’t typically look both ways when driving through a light that has already been green for a while when there are cars on either side waiting. I’m not saying Waymo cars do that; just an example of expected unexpected vs unexpected unexpected behavior.
richbell 3y ago
> "all the time" means it is not unexpected. Humans do mistakes and omissions that you've subconsciously learned that humans do, so you can adjust to deal with that. For example, just because someone has their turn signal on and is slowing down doesn't mean they're going to turn.
true_religion 3y ago
Alien and unpredictable until we have enough experience with them to know their edge cases. From my experience with LLMs, AIs even when called to be creative are fairly consistent, even if at first they seem to be producing output that’s more creative than human norms.

patmorgan23 3y ago

The question is how different is the set of unexpected things humans do from the set of unexpected things waymo/autopilots do/will do. Also sometimes I can intuit that the driver in front of me is probably going to do something dumb because of other minor things I've observed about their driving style.

cyanydeez 3y ago

the swarm doesn't though. I can rely on most drivers to avoid black swan events

shadowgovt 3y ago
But unlike an automated vehicle, when a black swan event does occur in a human driver you can't disassemble their thought process, correct it, and apply that correction to all other human drivers unfortunately.
- cyanydeez 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - bumby 3y ago
    Maybe not the programmer (unless we get to position where they are licensed like other engineering disciplines), but we can hold a company liable. Some companies have already stated they will accept "full liability" [1]. That reference is nearly a decade old, and some companies have admitted AV is a much harder problem than they initially anticipated, so I'm wondering if they would walk that statement back now. [1] https://www.motortrend.com/news/volvo-will-accept-full-liability-for-its-autonomous-vehicles/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/volvo-will-accept-full-liabi...
    - cyanydeez 3y ago
      right, but as far as I know, non of the current self driving testbeds are actively insured and liable. maybe it's under reported, but if you used FEMA value of life, you should have seen multiple million dollar payouts.