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We are not building remotely enough batteries to replace peakers. To put this in perspective, the US averages 500 GW electricity consumption. So 12 TWh per day.

We are not building remotely enough batteries to replace peakers. To put this in perspective, the US averages 500 GW electricity consumption. So 12 TWh per day. Even just 12 hours of storage to satisfy diurnal fluctuations would be 6,000 GWh. In reality, there's also seasonal fluctuations that can reduce output for weeks at a time. Not only that, electricity is only ~40% of fossil fuel use. When transportation and industries are electrified, that 6,000 GWh is going to turn into 14,000 GWh. By comparison the entire world produces only 400GWh of batteries per year. Most of that is going to electric vehicles. Only 1% of vehicles on the road are electric. Making even a slight dent in grid storage demand is going to seriously delay EV adoption.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago
I don't think you've paid sufficient attention to battery production ramps: > Automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 GWh in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in... and https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-2022-2030 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lithium-ion-b... Which puts global production of all battery usages at 1.5TWh in 2022
- Manuel_D 3y ago
  > Which puts global production of all battery usages at 1.5TWh in 2022 Wrong, production capacity (distinct from actual production) is at 1,500 GWh. But less than half (closer to a third) of that production capacity is utilized: https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/growth-of-liion-battery-manufacturing-capacity.html https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/growt... A quick review of terms: Production Capacity is how much the industries hypothetically could produce if they had unlimited inputs and labor. This is around ~1,500 GWh Production is how much they actually built. This is ~500 GWh per year. Production Utilization is production divided by production capacity. Which hovers around 33% for lithium ion batteries right now. Actual production figures is what matters, not what factories hypothetically could produce if they had unlimited input. Manufacturing costs are only a quarter of the cost of lithium batteries [1]. Battery production is already bottlenecked on the supply of input materials, so growing production capacity is not relevant until the input demands are fed. 1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    I don't think your spglobal link really supports what you're saying: > According to S&P Global Mobility (formerly IHS Markit | Automotive), demand for Li-ion batteries from light vehicle between 2021 and 2027 will increase a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 40% to about 2,050 GWh. Installed battery capacity in the same period will grow a 23.5% CAGR to 3,371 GWh in 2027.
    - Manuel_D 3y ago
      This is the chart I'm talking about: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0722/global-battery-cell-plant-utilization-rate.png https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0722/global-battery-cel... The green bar is actual production (the figure that actually matters). The gray bar is production capacity. Notice how the green bar is one third to one half that of the gray bar? This is why it's important to distinguish between production capacity and actual production figures. The way you're conflating production capacity with actual production is exaggerating the availability of batteries by a factor of 2 to 3.
      - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
        I couldn't quickly locate the original source, but in your link the reference to 'utilization' suggests it's talking about how much is used for cars, not how much production is sitting idle: > Compared with 56% of the installed capacity in Greater China being used for light vehicle segment, Europe will have a much higher capacity utilization of about 74%.
        Manuel_D 3y ago
        Incorrect, this is about how much battery production is produced in total. The talk about cars is explaining the breakdown of demand. Show me a source claiming that 1,500 GWh of batteries was actually produced. Not installed capacity. Not demand. Actual production. 1.5 TWh is an incredibly high number, and would represent a 200% increase over the previous year. This source talks about demand (not production) of 670 GWh for 2022 [1] but who knows how much of that demand was actually fulfilled. But even if it was 100% fulfilled that's still less than half of 1,500 GWh. The latest data I could find on actual production was 476 GWh in 2021 [2]. 1. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-raw-materials-pose-barrier-US-manufacturing-SEIA-report/700411/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-raw-materials-pose-... 2. https://interactanalysis.com/insight/lithium-ion-battery-market-is-moving-into-surge-mode/#:~:text=Just%20look%20at%20the%20figures,of%20a%20longer%2Dterm%20trend https://interactanalysis.com/insight/lithium-ion-battery-mar....

ZeroGravitas 3y ago

I don't think you've paid sufficient attention to battery production ramps: > Automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 GWh in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-batteries https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in... and https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lithium-ion-battery-manufacturing-capacity-2022-2030 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lithium-ion-b... Which puts global production of all battery usages at 1.5TWh in 2022

Manuel_D 3y ago
> Which puts global production of all battery usages at 1.5TWh in 2022 Wrong, production capacity (distinct from actual production) is at 1,500 GWh. But less than half (closer to a third) of that production capacity is utilized: https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/growth-of-liion-battery-manufacturing-capacity.html https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/growt... A quick review of terms: Production Capacity is how much the industries hypothetically could produce if they had unlimited inputs and labor. This is around ~1,500 GWh Production is how much they actually built. This is ~500 GWh per year. Production Utilization is production divided by production capacity. Which hovers around 33% for lithium ion batteries right now. Actual production figures is what matters, not what factories hypothetically could produce if they had unlimited input. Manufacturing costs are only a quarter of the cost of lithium batteries [1]. Battery production is already bottlenecked on the supply of input materials, so growing production capacity is not relevant until the input demands are fed. 1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a...
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  I don't think your spglobal link really supports what you're saying: > According to S&P Global Mobility (formerly IHS Markit | Automotive), demand for Li-ion batteries from light vehicle between 2021 and 2027 will increase a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 40% to about 2,050 GWh. Installed battery capacity in the same period will grow a 23.5% CAGR to 3,371 GWh in 2027.
  - Manuel_D 3y ago
    This is the chart I'm talking about: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0722/global-battery-cell-plant-utilization-rate.png https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0722/global-battery-cel... The green bar is actual production (the figure that actually matters). The gray bar is production capacity. Notice how the green bar is one third to one half that of the gray bar? This is why it's important to distinguish between production capacity and actual production figures. The way you're conflating production capacity with actual production is exaggerating the availability of batteries by a factor of 2 to 3.
    - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
      I couldn't quickly locate the original source, but in your link the reference to 'utilization' suggests it's talking about how much is used for cars, not how much production is sitting idle: > Compared with 56% of the installed capacity in Greater China being used for light vehicle segment, Europe will have a much higher capacity utilization of about 74%.
      - Manuel_D 3y ago
        Incorrect, this is about how much battery production is produced in total. The talk about cars is explaining the breakdown of demand. Show me a source claiming that 1,500 GWh of batteries was actually produced. Not installed capacity. Not demand. Actual production. 1.5 TWh is an incredibly high number, and would represent a 200% increase over the previous year. This source talks about demand (not production) of 670 GWh for 2022 [1] but who knows how much of that demand was actually fulfilled. But even if it was 100% fulfilled that's still less than half of 1,500 GWh. The latest data I could find on actual production was 476 GWh in 2021 [2]. 1. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-raw-materials-pose-barrier-US-manufacturing-SEIA-report/700411/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-raw-materials-pose-... 2. https://interactanalysis.com/insight/lithium-ion-battery-market-is-moving-into-surge-mode/#:~:text=Just%20look%20at%20the%20figures,of%20a%20longer%2Dterm%20trend https://interactanalysis.com/insight/lithium-ion-battery-mar....