6 ms·
Heaven forbid their calculations aren't confident given that large distance, and the theoretical nudge instead generates a hit.
by mrangle 3y ago
Heaven forbid their calculations aren't confident given that large distance, and the theoretical nudge instead generates a hit.
- j4yav 3y agoWhy would we be nudging ones that are going to miss?
- pdabbadabba 3y agoIf we mistakenly think it will hit because "their calculations aren't confident given that large distance."
- Arrath 3y agoPresumably the same distance that gives the calculations uncertainty allows time to adopt a wait and see approach, refine the data and calculations and then make a decision based off of stronger inputs and still avert disaster if necessary?
- Vecr 3y agoProbably better to hit it twice, the first time right after detection and a second time if the probability of impact is still too high.
- Terr_ 3y agoA chilling tale, but step back and look at the odds: Not only does it rely on a significant original measurement/prediction error, but it also assumes the exact wrong nudge will occur that happens to compound that error. In contrast, the vast majority of possible nudges will be neutral or beneficial, since the Earth is a very small target compared to the rest of space.