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I think it is obviously true that they have worked hard and built great devices. That was evident even when they only sold products for gaming. But this is what

by adamc 3y ago

I think it is obviously true that they have worked hard and built great devices. That was evident even when they only sold products for gaming. But this is what most companies do, or try to do: take their core products and invest in making them better. CUDA was impressive but not shocking. When people say it's luck, I think they are reacting to the reality that Nvidia couldn't know, when they were doing this investing, that there was a big AI market waiting to take off. They were doing good work, but they were also very, very lucky that circumstances granted them this opportunity. There is no shame in that -- few companies achieve great success without some opportunity manifesting. But it's a mistake to pat yourself on the back too hard, either. Without the opportunity, they'd still be making gpus with some other applications.

mrandish 3y ago
As you note, the "luck" debate often bogs down into a false dichotomy of extremes when the reality is usually in-between and complicated. In my experience, most people (and companies) have the opportunity to encounter approximately similar amounts of "good" and "bad" luck, when averaged over the long run. However... * This is gated by the ability to recognize those opportunities when they appear, willingness to act decisively to maximize the probability of positive outcomes and the preparedness to exploit such advantages. This tends to require mental preparedness, emotional maturity and a willingness to invest scarce resources and/or time - in advance - toward maintaining situational awareness and some excess reserve resources. Doing this is hard but these traits are learnable. * Similarly, a portion of available conscious effort and scarce resources must be continuously expended toward being resilient to bad luck when it inevitably strikes. The net impact of misfortune can vary substantially depending on mitigation steps taken in advance. This requires accurate awareness of ambient risk factors and careful balancing of where you choose to place your limited 'air bags' and 'ounces of prevention.' Most of these things are at least somewhat within your ability to influence, with the exception of initial conditions. At the "opening deal" of life some people are dealt better cards and some people are dealt worse cards. This is not fair, but it is what it is. The silver-lining is that, after the initial cards are dealt, it can still be a long game with many rounds. How you choose to play the cards you have in each of those rounds can lead to substantially different outcomes. Because it's a game like poker with randomness, hidden variables, subtle cues and second-order probabilities - it's easy to conclude it's almost all luck. This is unfortunate because not understanding the 'meta' of the game, or even knowing there is a meta, does make it mostly luck for some. I think NVidia's 'good fortune' is the cumulative result of playing the meta-game effectively for a long-time and thus leading to them having the capability to maximize their outcomes when eventually finding themselves in a high-opportunity environment (aka "lucky").

by adamc 3y ago

mrandish 3y ago

As you note, the "luck" debate often bogs down into a false dichotomy of extremes when the reality is usually in-between and complicated. In my experience, most people (and companies) have the opportunity to encounter approximately similar amounts of "good" and "bad" luck, when averaged over the long run. However... * This is gated by the ability to recognize those opportunities when they appear, willingness to act decisively to maximize the probability of positive outcomes and the preparedness to exploit such advantages. This tends to require mental preparedness, emotional maturity and a willingness to invest scarce resources and/or time - in advance - toward maintaining situational awareness and some excess reserve resources. Doing this is hard but these traits are learnable. * Similarly, a portion of available conscious effort and scarce resources must be continuously expended toward being resilient to bad luck when it inevitably strikes. The net impact of misfortune can vary substantially depending on mitigation steps taken in advance. This requires accurate awareness of ambient risk factors and careful balancing of where you choose to place your limited 'air bags' and 'ounces of prevention.' Most of these things are at least somewhat within your ability to influence, with the exception of initial conditions. At the "opening deal" of life some people are dealt better cards and some people are dealt worse cards. This is not fair, but it is what it is. The silver-lining is that, after the initial cards are dealt, it can still be a long game with many rounds. How you choose to play the cards you have in each of those rounds can lead to substantially different outcomes. Because it's a game like poker with randomness, hidden variables, subtle cues and second-order probabilities - it's easy to conclude it's almost all luck. This is unfortunate because not understanding the 'meta' of the game, or even knowing there is a meta, does make it mostly luck for some. I think NVidia's 'good fortune' is the cumulative result of playing the meta-game effectively for a long-time and thus leading to them having the capability to maximize their outcomes when eventually finding themselves in a high-opportunity environment (aka "lucky").