5 ms·

>"There was huge concern right away that you’d have videos appear in a political context that could change the course of an election or lead to political violen

>"There was huge concern right away that you’d have videos appear in a political context that could change the course of an election or lead to political violence. But none of that has transpired." This kind of "it hasn't happened yet so it won't" dismissal of the ever-closer ability to create a perfect fake video of X person saying this or that is so myopic I feel like it doesn't even deserve elaboration as to why it is wrong, we should skip straight to mockery and derision. We've already had multiple cases of fake Biden and fake Trump videos posted to the internet with hundreds of thousands of views before any kind of clarification came to indicate they were fake.[1] 2024 will put this to the test, and I have little confidence that this will remain the case. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/62338593 https://www.bbc.com/news/62338593

willsoon 3y ago
Well, yes. I saw Biden recite a copipasta from beginning to end. I still marvel at how well it's done. The skill of the AI or whatever, or the person who did it, approaches art. I still don't believe for a second that it's real, because it's a copypasta, you know? And especially because I am a human being with normal intelligence.
- sickofparadox 3y ago
  Ok that's wonderful but a bit of a red herring. I'm not worried about the AI presidents gaming channels that are out there with Trump Obama and Biden playing Minecraft together, I'm worried about "new leaked audio from our undercover reporter of Biden telling the head of the FBI to sink Trump's campaign" or "Video leak of Trump calling for the intimidation of voters in blue states" exploding on the internet with no real way to confirm or deny it. You may say you're a human being with normal intelligence, but I don't have a ton of faith that people would be able to tell one way or the other - especially younger people who seem much more likely to believe things on the internet. We already have cybercriminals using AI voicechangers to impersonate people's coworkers to game helpdesks for breaking into systems.[1] This is a tool that can be used for fun but it's as game changing as the printing press, possible more. https://www.pcmag.com/news/hacker-deepfakes-employees-voice-in-phone-call-to-breach-it-company https://www.pcmag.com/news/hacker-deepfakes-employees-voice-...
  - willsoon 3y ago
    You are right not to rely on people's intelligence, but we are obliged to do so because we are not monarchists and we believe in democracy, or at least we try to.
    - djij 3y ago
      How sure are you of that? I would bet there's more than one Mencius Moldbug fan on hacker news....
      - willsoon 3y ago
        I don't know for sure. And certainly we are not what you call "leftists" in HN. But let me say this on a personal level. I know that people sometimes, all the time, often, certainly, behave stupidly. But I want to believe, ergo I believe, that people can make good decisions, that there is such a thing as "common sense". Looking at the facts sometimes made me sad. Maybe people can't think for themselves, and then they can't choose. But I prefer not to think in terms of peasants and elites, even if history tells me so and Ortega y Gasset tells me how it works. I want to believe that we are capable of governing our lives. I want to believe. Forgive me for expressing not a fact, but the way I think about democracy.
  - breuleux 3y ago
    At the same time, you have to consider that if the same crooked reporter reported these leaks without providing any audio at all, or said they were emails, or texts, a large number of people would believe them anyway. You have to check what the delta is of people who would not have believed a plain text lie but would believe a video lie, and as deepfakes become more and more sophisticated in plain sight, that delta is bound to shrink. I feel that ultimately the delta will become negligible, because the cognitive flaws that would push us to believe deepfakes at an era when anyone can create a deepfake of themselves in 30 seconds on a website (not now, but not long after they would be used for propaganda) are the same that currently push us to believe clear textual propaganda. If you don't fall for one, you won't fall for the other.
- willsoon 3y ago
  Just like the first time I saw the old lady on the surf table standing up in the sky to welcome me to the Internet and offer herself as my guide, I knew it couldn't be real and suspected that there was some irony in the whole wonderful scene.
progmetaldev 3y ago
I think that will be the issue, where even though an image or video will be revealed as fake, how many people saw it before that was revealed (and of the people that saw it and believed it, did they hear of the fakery being revealed)?

willsoon 3y ago

Well, yes. I saw Biden recite a copipasta from beginning to end. I still marvel at how well it's done. The skill of the AI or whatever, or the person who did it, approaches art. I still don't believe for a second that it's real, because it's a copypasta, you know? And especially because I am a human being with normal intelligence.

sickofparadox 3y ago
Ok that's wonderful but a bit of a red herring. I'm not worried about the AI presidents gaming channels that are out there with Trump Obama and Biden playing Minecraft together, I'm worried about "new leaked audio from our undercover reporter of Biden telling the head of the FBI to sink Trump's campaign" or "Video leak of Trump calling for the intimidation of voters in blue states" exploding on the internet with no real way to confirm or deny it. You may say you're a human being with normal intelligence, but I don't have a ton of faith that people would be able to tell one way or the other - especially younger people who seem much more likely to believe things on the internet. We already have cybercriminals using AI voicechangers to impersonate people's coworkers to game helpdesks for breaking into systems.[1] This is a tool that can be used for fun but it's as game changing as the printing press, possible more. https://www.pcmag.com/news/hacker-deepfakes-employees-voice-in-phone-call-to-breach-it-company https://www.pcmag.com/news/hacker-deepfakes-employees-voice-...
- willsoon 3y ago
  You are right not to rely on people's intelligence, but we are obliged to do so because we are not monarchists and we believe in democracy, or at least we try to.
  - djij 3y ago
    How sure are you of that? I would bet there's more than one Mencius Moldbug fan on hacker news....
    - willsoon 3y ago
      I don't know for sure. And certainly we are not what you call "leftists" in HN. But let me say this on a personal level. I know that people sometimes, all the time, often, certainly, behave stupidly. But I want to believe, ergo I believe, that people can make good decisions, that there is such a thing as "common sense". Looking at the facts sometimes made me sad. Maybe people can't think for themselves, and then they can't choose. But I prefer not to think in terms of peasants and elites, even if history tells me so and Ortega y Gasset tells me how it works. I want to believe that we are capable of governing our lives. I want to believe. Forgive me for expressing not a fact, but the way I think about democracy.
- breuleux 3y ago
  At the same time, you have to consider that if the same crooked reporter reported these leaks without providing any audio at all, or said they were emails, or texts, a large number of people would believe them anyway. You have to check what the delta is of people who would not have believed a plain text lie but would believe a video lie, and as deepfakes become more and more sophisticated in plain sight, that delta is bound to shrink. I feel that ultimately the delta will become negligible, because the cognitive flaws that would push us to believe deepfakes at an era when anyone can create a deepfake of themselves in 30 seconds on a website (not now, but not long after they would be used for propaganda) are the same that currently push us to believe clear textual propaganda. If you don't fall for one, you won't fall for the other.
willsoon 3y ago
Just like the first time I saw the old lady on the surf table standing up in the sky to welcome me to the Internet and offer herself as my guide, I knew it couldn't be real and suspected that there was some irony in the whole wonderful scene.

progmetaldev 3y ago

I think that will be the issue, where even though an image or video will be revealed as fake, how many people saw it before that was revealed (and of the people that saw it and believed it, did they hear of the fakery being revealed)?