4 ms·
Given the dimensions involved, the billions of miles, any deflection would create a miss. If we are certain that an asteroid is actually going to hit earth man
by sandworm101 3y ago
Given the dimensions involved, the billions of miles, any deflection would create a miss. If we are certain that an asteroid is actually going to hit earth many years/decades out, then even a microscopic nudge in any direction would shift the closest approach by an earth-width. So precise aim might not be as important as getting the bomb out there asap. The earlier it is done, the less push is necessary to generate a miss. Of course, this is premised on us having near-perfect knowledge of the initial trajectory.
- mrangle 3y agoHeaven forbid their calculations aren't confident given that large distance, and the theoretical nudge instead generates a hit.
- j4yav 3y agoWhy would we be nudging ones that are going to miss?
- pdabbadabba 3y agoIf we mistakenly think it will hit because "their calculations aren't confident given that large distance."
- Arrath 3y agoPresumably the same distance that gives the calculations uncertainty allows time to adopt a wait and see approach, refine the data and calculations and then make a decision based off of stronger inputs and still avert disaster if necessary?
- Vecr 3y agoProbably better to hit it twice, the first time right after detection and a second time if the probability of impact is still too high.
- Terr_ 3y agoA chilling tale, but step back and look at the odds: Not only does it rely on a significant original measurement/prediction error, but it also assumes the exact wrong nudge will occur that happens to compound that error. In contrast, the vast majority of possible nudges will be neutral or beneficial, since the Earth is a very small target compared to the rest of space.
- rmbyrro 3y agoDetecting an asteroid years or decades in advance in the first place would be an extremely difficult task, I believe.
- datameta 3y agoAs I understand it we are tracking certain asteroids that we predict have a chance of impacting on the following encounter with earth depending on what the outcome is of passing through a per-basis volume called a "keyhole". So it isn't that we detect them when they are a decade out on a direct trajectory.
- throwaway4aday 3y agoThose are the ones we know about. If you think about the problem, it really is a very difficult one to solve. We're attempting to find and track tiny objects that could be anywhere in an absolutely massive volume of space using almost entirely ground based equipment that is hobbled by competing demands, atmospheric distortion and a very inconveniently nearby star that halves the observation time and makes it really hard to find objects on that side of our orbit. For all the fancy animated maps of the many asteroids we have located there are likely still a very large number of other asteroids we don't know about yet and may not find out about until after the fact.
- datameta 3y agoOh certainly, from that angle yes it is a massive undertaking indeed!